Thread by @COVID19actuary

Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

752 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 34% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 16 days.

There’s been a continued fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/6

To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

Our “admissions-R” has fallen below 1.3. 2/6

All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week except the North West where numbers have been flatter. Growth is fastest in the South West, up 67% while other regions are up by 40-50%. 3/6

Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen significantly in the last week. Mechanical ventilation beds occupancy is up by 16% and other bed occupancy is up by 33%. 4/6

We’re often asked what proportion of people admitted with COVID-19 are fully vaccinated. Analysis from @AdeleGroyer builds on data from @PHE_uk to examine vaccine status of cases and hospital admissions for over 50s and under 50s separately. 5/6

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…

It is clear that COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals are also continuing to increase.

The daily average has increased by 65% in the last week. We’ve changed the scale on the graph.

The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 6/6