Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

610 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 46% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 13 days.

Rate of increase has seems to have fallen slightly since last week but growth is still exponential and fast. 1/6 Image
Admissions are up by 25-70% in all English Regions. NE and Yorkshire is most concerning with the highest admissions and second highest growth rate. Only in the North West do things look like they might be starting to slow down. 2/6 Image
Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen significantly in the last week. Mechanical ventilation beds occupancy is up by 30% and other bed occupancy is up by 48%. 3/6 Image
The age profile of COVID-19 admissions is much younger than during the second wave. Half are now aged below 45, as discussed in our recent blog. This reduces in-hospital mortality by half, and reduces the average time spent in hospital. 4/6
It is clear that COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals are also continuing to increase.

The daily average has increased by 31% in the last week.

The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 5/6 Image
Updated SAGE modelling was released on Monday to accompany the announcement of the decision to move to Step 4 of the roadmap.

Our latest bulletin summarises the modelling, which indicates that 30-40,000 COVID deaths may occur over the months ahead. 6/6
covid-arg.com/post/modelling…

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More from @COVID19actuary

16 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

636 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 42% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 14 days.

There’s been a slight fall in the rate of increase but this is still rapid growth in admissions. 1/5 Image
To see the slight fall in the rate of increase more clearly, here is an “R-like” estimate based on hospital admissions. With a reducing proportion of infections turning into admissions, it probably understates R slightly.

The fall in the last few days is quite clear. 2/5 Image
All English regions are showing strong increases in hospital admissions over the past week. Growth is fastest in London, the East and South West. Growth is now slowest in the North West. Admissions are highest in the North East, and still rising rapidly. 3/5 Image
Read 5 tweets
14 Jul
Updated SAGE modelling was released Monday, with the announcement that England will move to Step 4 of the roadmap.

Here @longevitymatt, @AdeleGroyer and @john_actuary summarise the modelling, which suggests 30-40,000 deaths may occur in the months ahead.

covid-arg.com/post/modelling…
Whilst the models use slightly different approaches, central projections (where given) suggest similar numbers of deaths in the coming months.

Scenarios typically show hospitalisation peaking below the second wave peak. Peaks in deaths are likely to be considerably lower. Image
The main model uncertainties are vaccine efficacy (small changes can have a large impact) and the extent to which people exercise freedoms. We support the caution advocated in the briefing, given the risks involved in the removal of restrictions.

covid-arg.com/post/modelling…
Read 5 tweets
8 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

Admissions are increasing rapidly, with 458 reported today.

The 7-day average is 360 - up 58% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. No change to the rate in increase since yesterday. 1/6
All English Regions show increases. The most rapid increase is in the South East, where the average has doubled in a week (though small numbers). Other regions increased by 35-85%. 2/6
We put these admissions numbers in context, comparing them to the modelling scenarios provided by SAGE when the roadmap was discussed, in this recent blog by @longevitymatt. 3/6

covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…
Read 6 tweets
7 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

Admissions are still accelerating, with 416 reported today.

The 7-day average is 335 - up 57% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 11 days. 1/6
All English Regions show increases. The most rapid increase is in the South East, where the average has doubled in a week (though small numbers). Other regions increased by 35-75%. 2/6
We put these admissions numbers in context, comparing them to the modelling scenarios provided by SAGE when the roadmap was discussed, in this recent blog by @longevitymatt. 3/6

covid-arg.com/post/a-checkpo…
Read 6 tweets
6 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 310 - up by 52% in the last week. The implied doubling time is 12 days. 1/4
All English Regions are now showing increases. The most rapid increase in in the South East, where the average has more than doubled in a week (but from small numbers). Other regions increased by 30-70%. 2/4
There has been a dramatic fall in the average age of COVID-19 patients admitted to hospital. More than half of the patients are now aged below 45, which will certainly mean fewer fatalities and should also reduce the average time spent in hospital. 3/4
Read 4 tweets
5 Jul
Update on COVID hospital admissions and deaths in England.

Admissions are rising sharply. The 7-day average is up to 287 - up by 47% in the last week. 1/n Image
All English Regions are now showing increases. The most rapid increase in in the South East, where the average has almost doubled in a week (but from small numbers). Other regions increased by 30-60%, except the East where growth is slower. 2/n Image
Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen by 29% in the last week, with mechanical ventilation bed occupancy up by 21%. 3/n Image
Read 7 tweets

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