Thread by @COVID19actuary

Update on COVID hospital admissions in England.

610 admissions reported today. The 7-day average is up by 46% in the last week. Implied doubling time is 13 days.

Rate of increase has seems to have fallen slightly since last week but growth is still exponential and fast. 1/6

Admissions are up by 25-70% in all English Regions. NE and Yorkshire is most concerning with the highest admissions and second highest growth rate. Only in the North West do things look like they might be starting to slow down. 2/6

Hospital bed occupancy for COVID-19 has risen significantly in the last week. Mechanical ventilation beds occupancy is up by 30% and other bed occupancy is up by 48%. 3/6

The age profile of COVID-19 admissions is much younger than during the second wave. Half are now aged below 45, as discussed in our recent blog. This reduces in-hospital mortality by half, and reduces the average time spent in hospital. 4/6

https://twitter.com/covid19actuary/status/1411688410943733761

It is clear that COVID-19 deaths in English hospitals are also continuing to increase.

The daily average has increased by 31% in the last week.

The purple estimates are based on the pattern of reporting delays in the last two months. 5/6

Updated SAGE modelling was released on Monday to accompany the announcement of the decision to move to Step 4 of the roadmap.

Our latest bulletin summarises the modelling, which indicates that 30-40,000 COVID deaths may occur over the months ahead. 6/6
covid-arg.com/post/modelling…