Thread by @COVID19actuary

In our new blog, @AdeleGroyer compares the vaccination status of hospital admissions in England to the general population.

For those aged 50plus, the unvaccinated 5% make up 34% of hospital admissions. 79% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 43% of admissions.

At younger ages the vaccination relationship is similar.

For those aged below 50, only 46% are unvaccinated but they make up 87% of hospital admissions. 21% of people are fully vaccinated but make up just 4% of admissions.

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…

Our new blog examines both the vaccine status of admissions and also the implied hospitalisation rate for different groups, showing how this varies by age and vaccination status.

This provides a clear demonstration of the effectiveness of vaccines.
covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…

To understand whether we should be concerned by the proportion of people in hospital who are fully vaccinated, we can compare the ratios within each group.

Age 50 plus: (34%/5%) / (43%/79%) = 12.2

So unvaccinated are 12 times more likely to need hospital than fully vaccinated.

Applying the same calculation to younger people:

Age under 50: (87%/46%) / (4%/21%) = 10.6

So unvaccinated are 11 times more likely to need hospital than fully vaccinated.

This shows that the vaccines are highly effective at reducing risk of hospitalisation. #VaccinesWork

The numbers used in today’s blog are the last data published by @PHE_uk on 9 July.

New data are expected on Friday which will no doubt show a higher fully vaccinated percentage. It must be this newer data that the CMO quoted at today’s press briefing.

covid-arg.com/post/how-many-…