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Faisal Islam Profile picture
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22 Jul, 3 tweets, 1 min read
Kwasi Kwarteng Business Sec says that a list of ping isolation exceptions will be published today - by sector - tells Today he says “I’ve seen the pictures today (of empty shelves) very concerned about some developments -…”
KK to Today: “don’t want people to get impression every shelf in every supermarket is bare that’s not the case but we are certainly concerned about instances of shortages”
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More from @faisalislam

Faisal Islam Profile picture
20 Jul
“Get Covid & live longer” was quote in message obtained by my colleague @bbclaurak - difficult to know what that means but worth attempting to unpack. surely not an attempt at humour?

Suggesting connection between “getting COVID” and “living longer” is obviously innumerate… Image
Innumerate because:

Life expectancy is a mean, not a median - this makes a significant difference.

Life expectancy at 80 years old now, is 9 more years for a man, 10 for a woman...

More here from actual actuaries:

covid-arg.com/post/get-covid…
But actually the eyebrow raising thing here is suggesting some sort of causal relationship, even if Covid fatality average age was definitively below life expectancy... many other factors, for example, might have been certain age groups were almost totally shielded from infection
Read 6 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
19 Jul
Spent a couple of days in York speaking to businesses about Grand Reopening..

Overall sense are that things pretty tentative. HEre of course the lack of international tourists overwhelming factor.

At new hotel domestic tourists have fully booked up, but owner cant find staff...
Twenty per cent staff at his hotel group chain in Yorkshire are isolating, tho owner backs PM’s “if not now when” message...

Coffee shop owners working on basis much social distancing maintained voluntarily (York’s cafe spaces small), and domestic tourists spend less on coffee..
At “York Chocolate story” boss Juliana at pains to downplay rhetoric about Freedom Day “we dont like that phrase” will welcome more guests, but says her polling shows that people expect to be protected against virus, masks “strongly encouraged” for customers, compulsory for staff
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
14 Jul
Inflation rate up again a bit, a little further above 2% target, driven by, for example, used car sales prices up 4.4% in June alone, which we covered last month.

Base effects, eg comparisons with pandemic price falls a year ago, driving a lot of this…
used car price surge is also a result of pandemic, eventually. Demand has shot up, because new car production slowed at a time when demand rebounded, forcing people to buy second hand. microchip production was diverted away from new cars to electronics last year during pandemic
Heading for peak of about 3% in coming months, above target, but not as high as after recent crises or as seen now in US.

would trigger a letter of explanation from the Governor to Chancellor, which would say, “these are mainly bottlenecks and arithmetic effects of reopening”
Read 5 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
11 Jul
These two? Image
Sancho coming on
And sir Marcus rashford
Read 4 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
11 Jul
Outside Wembley now… @LukeShaw23….
Perhaps underrated by Mourinho, but actually dynamite 🧨
Sweet caroline…
Pretty chaotic outside stadium… they stopped activating tickets at outer barrier because of those rushing security checks, which means they don’t work at gate…and you have to go back to outer gate. but also some enterprising people trying to get in with screenshots of tickets!!
Read 7 tweets
Faisal Islam Profile picture
6 Jul
OBR chief Richard Hughes coming up on Today in a mo, previewing the new Fiscal Risks Report…
Triple Lock uprating due to 8% earnings “anomaly” forecast to coast £3 billion in payments to pensioners, says OBR’s chief Richard Hughes to @bbcnickrobinson on Today... and already no provision for £10bn of ongoing annual extra post pandemic spending...
Important OBR report onto medium term fiscal risks... and covid response

... UK fall in GDP in 2020 second worst behind Spain, worst in G7 reflecting big pandemic health hit
Read 5 tweets

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