Thread by @simonahac

🤓 what does japan's new electricity plan (released yesterday) mean for australia?

firstly, summary of new targets…

analysis w/ thanks to brainstrust: @LlewelynHughes, @Tom_Swann, @SStapczynski, @barobertson111, @TimBuckleyIEEFA & @BobBurtonoz

https://twitter.com/LlewelynHughes/status/1417749346402009088?s=20

for power sector:
• total renewables set to double over next decade, as they did over the last decade
• LNG to halve, back to levels not seen since ~1993
• coal down 45%, back to 1998 levels
• nuclear to recover to ~70% of pre-fukushima levels
• consumption set to fall by 9%

the new plan is expected to reduce electricity emissions by 46%.

(nb. there are plans for reducing emissions from other sectors of the economy… this is just the electricity sector.)

so what impact will these targets have on LNG and coal imports?

importantly, not all LNG and coal in japan is used for power generation. some is used in industry and commercial & residential heating.

turns out 69% of LNG and 74% of coal goes to the power sector.

so, combining project change in use with the allocation to generation, and assuming australia's exports to japan are hit proportionally…

🇦🇺 can expect:
• LNG exports ⬇️ 10 Mt
• coal exports ⬇️ 26 Mt
…by 2030.

hope 🇦🇺 fossil fuel companies are disclosing this. #auspol