Thread by @RogerPielkeJr

This is an important paper on flooding globally for several reasons

Do, H. X., Westra, S., & Leonard, M. (2017). A global-scale investigation of trends in annual maximum streamflow. Journal of Hydrology, 552, 28-43.

doi.org/10.1016/j.jhyd…

First, recognizing that there are regional differences, more locations saw decreasing trends than increasing trends

Overall, that means less flooding

Second - and this is really important - evidence of decreasing floods are contrary to evidence of increasing precipitation, and specifically maximum precipitation intensities

So YES extreme precip is going up (due to CC), but that does not mean that floods are also!

We actually addressed this apparent paradox more than 20 years ago!

Pielke, R. A., & Downton, M. W. (1999). US trends in streamflow and precipitation: Using societal impact data to address an apparent paradox. Bulletin-American Meteorological Society, 80, 1435-1436.

Back to Do et al
Third, trends in floods do not explain trends in damage

Exposure and vulnerability matter more (of course they do)

Fortunately there is now a large literature from around the world that assesses flood damage in the context of both precip/flood trends and trends in vulnerability exposure
doi.org/10.1080/174778…