Smart & w/ much solid policy recommendations to improve resilience & reduce vulnerability
(But both should stop confusing economic loss with climate trends!)
In most hearings I've been in Ds only engage D-invited witnesses & Rs w/ R-invitees
This wall of tribalism broke down today for just a brief moment
@SenatorTester listened to my testimony & express real surprise to learn that disaster losses are down as % GDP
Two points ...
1. That he didn't know this is a failure of climate science advice. He should know this - it is the @SenateBanking committee with a focus on US GDP
2. He gave the UCS witness a hanging curve & asked her to counter data in my testimony ... she completely dodged the opportunity 🤷♂️
My view that there are 2 frames for extreme weather & climate science currently at odds with each other:
1-A Bumper Sticker (everything is climate change, don't mention nuance, might be misused)
2-Nuanced (actually, climate risk management depends on getting science right)
There is really no way to reconcile these two perspectives
I do see the Bumper Sticker folks work hard against the expression of Nuanced views, even though the latter is the view of the IPCC, USNCAv1, WMO, peer reviewed lit etc
If you don't ...
If you don't actually care about scientific accuracy then by all means focus on RCP8.5 and assert that every extreme is getting worse
For instance, advocacy for emissions reductions are insensitive to such inaccuracies - they are just Bumper Stickers for a cause
But for some decisions... like central bank stress testing, US regulatory policy, local adaptation, re/insurance etc scientific accuracy actually matters
I don't actually think accurate science subtracts from the cause of emissions reductions - so why not have accurate science?
First, recognizing that there are regional differences, more locations saw decreasing trends than increasing trends
Overall, that means less flooding
Second - and this is really important - evidence of decreasing floods are contrary to evidence of increasing precipitation, and specifically maximum precipitation intensities
So YES extreme precip is going up (due to CC), but that does not mean that floods are also!
There is no doubt that attribution claims have run far out ahead of detection of trends
"Since 1951, the number of heavy rainfall days per year for the whole of Germany has hardly changed, almost independently of their definition" mdpi.com/2073-4441/12/7…
I'm not sure how the current strong attribution claims (it's obvious, right?) can be reconciled with the observational data, but I'm sure there is an explanation
If certain extreme events have become much more likely, then evidence should show them being more likely? Or not?
My piece in the WSJ today on the importance of climate adaptation
My discussion of Mike Hulme’s “climate reductionism” didn’t survive the edit, but it is a really important piece for understanding the incredible flattening of knowledge on climate
“In this new mood of climate-driven destiny the human hand, as the cause of climate change, has replaced the divine hand of God as being responsible for the collapse of civilizations, for visitations of extreme weather & for determining the new 21st-century wealth of nations”
How Climate Scenarios Lost Touch With Reality
A failure of self-correction in science has compromised climate science’s ability to provide plausible views of our collective future
by me & @jritch @ISSUESinST (online 7/26)
Pielke Jr, R., & Ritchie, J. (2021). Distorting the view of our climate future: The misuse and abuse of climate pathways and scenarios. Energy Research & Social Science. doi.org/10.1016/j.erss…
Plz email or DM for a PDF
We view the "stubborn commitment to error" in the continued use of outdated climate scenarios "as one of the most significant failures of scientific integrity in the twenty-first century thus far"
And that's because climate change is real & important