This makes being vaxxed even *more* desirable as you can't rely on enough others being immune to protect you by suppressing the virus as a population.
Regardless of herd immunity threshold, the more people vaccinated, the better it is - better for individuals as risk of severe illness is massively lower and better for everyone else as it brings down R since you are less likely to be infected or transmit.
And if/when we do reach some level of population immunity, I'd rather my immunity came from vaccination rather than infection which is why I am v pleased to be vaccinated!
H/T to @Meir_Rubin for raising it and thank you to twitter translate for letting me read it!
LONG THREAD: so I said yesterday I felt that the schools study in daily testing instead of isolation of pupils had been misreported. I don't think study tells you very much except that neither isolation or testing are working very well in schools.
Here is why...
What does study do? It takes 201 schools and assigns 99 to be "controls" - ie continue as normal, asking contacts of children with new confirmed covid to isolate for 10 days. The other 102 schools get assigned to "daily contact testing" (DCT) for contacts instead of isolation.
The hypothesis was that children in the DCT (testing) schools would miss fewer schools days than those in the control (isolation) schools without impacting 'too much' on transmission of covid.
The people running the BBC Horizon "Great British Intelligence Test" challenge on over 80,000 people took the opportunity to see if they could detect any differences by whether people had had covid or not...
2. They did this because of increasing concern over reoprted cognitive impacts of long covid - but more evidence is badly needed.
3. What they found was significant cognitive deficit for people who'd had covid compared to people that hadn't, after controlling for things like age, education, sex, first language etc.
The degree of deficit was worse the more severe the initial covid infection had been.
Cases this week have been bit lower than many expected (inc me!). Have we peaked?
Here are my thoughts for what they're worth...
TLDR: lots of possible things combining. I don't think this is the peak.
2. we know PCR testing capacity is stretched. Test & Trace reporting longer test turnaround times and results taking longer to make it to the dashboard.
Looking at results by date of test to 5 days ago (17 July), things still increasing everywhere but Scotland.
3. Looks as if the combined dampening effect of Scotland being knocked out of Euros, school term ending and final opening delayed has helped bring cases down. Which is very good news.
Term ended in Wales on 16th July and today in England. That will bring cases down from now.
Maybe 2%+ of 20 somethings currently have covid. That's at least 1 in 50 people. Even removing the actively symptomatic or those isolating, pretty much every nightclub with more than a couple hundred people will still have *at least* 1 person there who has covid.
Repeat each day
I don't blame people for clubbing at all. I blame the government for putting us all in this situation of crazy high infections and all the guard rails removed.
THREAD NE: The ONS Infection survey today confirmed the really concerning situation in the North East - 2.6% pop estimated with Covid, much higher than elsewhere.
Cases there are now 28x higher than there were 1 June. 1/6
Why? Contact rates haven't been higher than anywhere else and home working is on a par with all regions apart from London 2/6
It's not people going out more or going to work differently. 3/6
The other really important thing is the ages of who is getting infected.
Firstly, case rates are now over 2000/100,00/week for 16-19 year olds (!!). That's 2% of 15-19 yr olds in the NE testing positive in the week to 9 July.
Vaccines are definitely keeping cases down & will be having big impact on reducing hospitalisations too - BUT high case rates in older people will translate into some hospitalisation.
Vaccines are fab (get vaxxed!) but not infallible in face of unmitigated spread. 3/4