Thread by @chrischirp

15 Tweet THREAD on current cases & trajectory:

Cases this week have been bit lower than many expected (inc me!). Have we peaked?

Here are my thoughts for what they're worth...

TLDR: lots of possible things combining. I don't think this is the peak.

2. we know PCR testing capacity is stretched. Test & Trace reporting longer test turnaround times and results taking longer to make it to the dashboard.

Looking at results by date of test to 5 days ago (17 July), things still increasing everywhere but Scotland.

3. Looks as if the combined dampening effect of Scotland being knocked out of Euros, school term ending and final opening delayed has helped bring cases down. Which is very good news.

Term ended in Wales on 16th July and today in England. That will bring cases down from now.

4. NOTE school holidays bring cases down mailny cos less transmission but also cos less routine testing in school children. Tests are lower in Wales this week for instance in 1st week of holidays.

5. England's football journey ended 11th July. Week after is when we'd see a football bump - and we did see high cases last week, highest in young men.

That effect will be easing this week.
gov.uk/government/sta…

6. We've also had a heatwave over past week across almost all UK - driving people outside where it's safer. Despite the handwringing photos of beaches, that's much safer than hanging out indoors!

7. Then, is there a behaviour effect? Are some people increasingly restricting their behaviour due to high cases (eg me!)? Note that cases post 'freedom day' have yet to hit the system.

8. If those out and about are also less worried about covid or are less able to work from home (retail, hospitality, transport etc) then may also be less likely to get tested if symptomatic - esp if symptoms are mild or cold-like.

9. Plus of course there's the pingdemic caused by the pandemic. If you get positive LFD are you less likely to report it (even if you then isolate) to avoid passing on the ping? If you're setting off on holiday soon, are you more cautious to avoid the ping?

10. But in terms of immunity, we're not at population immunity yet (if we can even get there with current vaccines & delta). 31% of pop have no vaccination.
Wales doing best (perhaps why their case rises have been slower?).

11. The govt and SAGE modellers all expect cases to keep going up after step 4 (19 July) and to stay high for August.

The impacts of school holidays (dampen) and Step 4 (speed up) won't hit till next week.

theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…

12. Case rates highest ever in 20-29 yr olds last week and they are group most likely to have taken advantage of no limits socialising this week... #justsayin

13. And then there is some evidence now of waning immunity several months after 2nd jab, both from real world data in Israel

https://twitter.com/Nadav_Eyal/status/1417923435737534467?s=08

and lab studies (e.g. theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…)

If true, this will start having an impact at end of summer...

14. So I think English numbers this week are lower cos combo of: hot weather, football over, some cautious behaviour, testing lags, more reluctance to get tested.

I expect numbers will go up again though and it might be bumpy as different factors pull in different directions.

15. I'll join SAGE in not even trying to predict actual peak since too many uncertainties all clashing with each other!

And of course the ever present known unknown of new variant potential...

ONS infection survey & REACT study ever more vital to get handle on spread. /END