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Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
@orwell2022
Jul 23, 2021 • 14 tweets • 12 min read • Read on X
1/ #Myocarditis/#Pericarditis rates after #vaccination.

#CDC #VAERS US data (June) versus German #PEI (July).

I start with the result graph. For details and source see below. Conclusion: the US and German data are very comparable. Image
2/ Sources.

CDC USA report: June 23, 2021, Tom Shimabukuro

Paul Ehrlich (PEI) Germany report, July 15, 2021
3/ Data preparation:

1) The CDC report is very well done and properly normalized. No further calculations are needed. All is done and ready.

2) The German report is poor. No normalization by doses, nor by sex. In General the report is of a very low quality.
4/ So for the German PEI report, some calculations and estimations were needed. The administered dose per age group are also not published and need to be estimated.

Approach: use German 2019 population pyramid and multiply by vaccination rate (estimated). Here the result. Image
5/ Remarks. Germany hasn't given a general recommendation for vaccinating children below 18.

Thanks to the #STIKO, they didn’t follow the unethical example of CDC.

That’s why the German curve begins at 18 only. The data below 18 is fortunately not available. Image
6/ The general quality of the German PEI reports are of low quality (lacking dose/age normalization etc.).

The comparison with the high quality report by CDC shows this very clearly. But judge for yourself.

@RWMaloneMD @waukema @AlexBerenson @Lareb_NL @CDCgov @rki_de
7/ Many thanks again to #STIKO and Prof. Dr. Thomas Mertens who resists the unethical pressure by @Karl_Lauterbach and other #zerocovid members.



@BrinkmannLab @ViolaPriesemann @jensspahn @hugodejonge @maybritillner
8/




9/ Bonus round: why vaccinating children is unethical:
Using the same type of normalization as decribed above, I estimated the age dependant vaccine CFR from the German PEI report and compared it with the C19 IFR for healthy. IFR source below here:
Image
10/ All safety features have fallen. This here is unprecedented. Politics make medical decisions now and ignore #STIKO. The kids must be vaccinated at all costs it looks like. And rumors say that STIKO will change it’s recommendation. Based on new data? No.
11/ Risk - Benefit the wrong way around. It’s absolutely “heartbreaking” (sorry for the sarcasm).

Unfortunately my little thread will grow bigger. There is a new PEI report available. I’ll update my graphs.

#STIKO #FDA #PEI #CDC shame on you.
12/ Interesting. Canadian data. Significant higher rates are seen, more in line with the the Israel data.
13/ Here is a graphical comparison: Canada vs. Israel (claimed source is a FOI request: )

Clearly CDC US and PEI DE have an underreporting issue while Canada and Israel show similar (higher) numbers.

What about @Lareb_NL ? Nothing to report? Silence? Image
14/ The potential root cause for the age curve has been discussed by @bringsmileback here: a combination of testosteron and stronger Th1 inflammatory response in young boys compared to older men:

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More from @orwell2022

Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
Sep 10
They're trolling / insulting. The request was clear: compare ERA5 2km / @meteoblue with @AEMET_CValencia sensor at an hourly level. If they match at night, cloudy days, winter, but the sensor shows higher T in summer clear skies / no wind / day 👉 sensor is heat-biased. So? Go.
Thanks, @meteoblue. Normal conversation can be so easy. If the Spanish gentlemen would now provide access to their hourly station dataset, we can overlay it with the fine-grid ERA5 2km hourly product and see what's going on. Does that sound like a way forward @AEMET_CValencia ?

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@meteoblue @AEMET_CValencia He clearly doesn’t understand their response nor my request. At this stage, I just want him to provide THE HOURLY DATA. What the answer actually means is that the 30 km cell is more representative of the region’s climate—yes, it’s better than the station. Well done @ChGefaell 👍.

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Read 10 tweets
Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
Sep 3
1/ Such places have no credibility for accurate bias free measurements. It's the opposite of a stable environment and per default a diesel powered urban expedition place. We see how the melting starts around the airport and the town.

How to measure? 👉 open.substack.com/pub/orwell2024…


Image
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2/ Here we see another example (Alaska). Russian high-lat regions are among the worst. It's a deception to take measurements from such places and claim that you've done 'science' while actually just picking up dirt. Why not Everest dirt basecamp next?
3/ It escalated quickly. Similar to @BMcNoldy from Miami, master's student @Daaanvdb also used airport data instead of professional equipment, like what's available at @UNISvalbard.

Let's do better and use proper data from a better looking station.


Image
Read 19 tweets
Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
Jun 27
1/ As mentioned, Europe is too urbanized for climate measurements. Shown below is just the UHI effect. As mentioned, ANY type of urban landscape altering increases surface temperatures as well. The Netherlands and Benelux regions are all fully biased and unfit for climate science
Image
2/ As mentioned previously, North Sweden is the most credible place for climate measurements due to its development, peace, and ability to capture high-quality data. Besides Sweden, only the US provides reliable historic data. All other regions are not credible and biased today. Image
3/ Source: YCEO Surface Urban Heat Islands: Spatially-Averaged Daytime and Nighttime Intensity for Annual, Summer, and Winter.

It's from 2003. Now it's even more urbanized = worse.

developers.google.com/earth-engine/d…
Read 12 tweets
Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
Jun 18
1/ Remember the scenic document from @NOAA's USCRN. All rural places without man-made objects?



It's 145 pages long, each page one station. They should ALL be there, right?

Nope. How naive to believe that it's done in good faith.

Ready? 🧵 ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/uscrn…
2/ This finding didn't emerge out of nowhere. Result of me telling @connolly_s that his detailed check of USCRN is a waste of time.

I repeated for weeks...then I swore...

They present the best only and hide urban stations. Bad faith. Consciously.


Image
3/ So, what do they look like, the ones they don't like to show? Urban areas. Airports...

Remember their requirements: It should be like the Everglades. No man-made environmental alterations. Stable. Representative.


Image
Read 12 tweets
Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
May 22
1/ Let's do some checks: Compare the SST data model to water (ground) truth, thermometers in the water.

The green dots are the available @CDIPBuoys, a well maintained network. Probably the best buoy network (by @USACEHQ). Haven't seen any better one.

cdip.ucsd.edu/m/deployment/s…

Image
2/ Florida: the gulf area showing up red at the anomaly chart. The buoy shows nominal at average values. 25C versus +26-27C in the SST model. That's a +1C heat bias. Image
3/ Next - Hawaii. Buoys are below average. SST product is showing heat anomalies there.

14th May: buoy 24.5C vs. 25.5C SST.
+1C heat bias

Interesting. It's apparently too warm, as long as you don't stick a real thermometer into the water to measure and realize: it's cold. Image
Read 7 tweets
Orwell2024🏒 Profile picture
May 13
1/ Let's revisit this result from AIRS satellite measurements over 17 years, showing a +0.36W increase in forcing alongside a 40 ppm rise in CO2 concentration.

Does this align with the "observed" (questionable) increase in global temperature anomaly (+0.6C)?

Let’s do a check.
Image
2/The IPCC reports a calculated CO2 forcing of +0.5W, as detailed on the NOAA AGGI page, which you can find here:



The SW calculation overestimates by 40% compared to the +0.36W derived by the AIRS satellite, marking the first significant discrepancy. gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html
Image
3/ Now we return to Happer's paper, showing that doubling CO2 from 400 --> 800 ppm results in +3W of forcing.


This is consistent with +3.5W reported by the NOAA AGGI (+3.5W).

arxiv.org/pdf/2006.03098

gml.noaa.gov/aggi/aggi.html

Image
Read 7 tweets

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