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Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
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24 Jul, 9 tweets, 7 min read
📍NEAR VERTICAL—The South is now seeing #DeltaVariant in its true vertical exponential form. So many not vaxxed. Short of lockdowns, it now all comes down to masks, ventilation & air disinfection—but if Delta has R0=6, it’s hard to bend curve; if R0=8, it’s almost impossible.🧵
2) the truth is, the best case scenario of 70% fully #vaccinated and vaccine efficacy of 99% for total infection and R0=6 is somewhat of a fairytale for the near future. Vaccinations have stalled. And efficacy is likely <70%, maybe even 40%. HT @GosiaGasperoPhD
3) the upper estimate for the R0 for #DeltaVariant is ~8, but this means that with realistic 60% vaccine efficacy and 64% fully vaxxed (very few countries have that), and excellent compliance with PH measures like masks & no indoor gatherings (that’s a stretch), its not enough!!!
4) Vaccine efficacy is much lower now in Israel 🇮🇱 than before as #DeltaVariant prevalence rises and case load rises (greater spread) and as protection potentially wanes over time. See detailed thread 🧵
5) The worry is that an R0=8 could mean #DeltaVariant keeps spiraling out of control… and we get a mass infection burn through like India 🇮🇳 had with its #DeltaVariant surge. We absolutely don’t want this hell-ish scenario. We need fast action! It’s not too late @CDCDirector
6) the longer we wait, the more we might see this VE waning… the trend is very significant. Vaccines are excellent and please vaccinate to protect yourself but we need more than just vaccines alone to contain #DeltaVariant total spread. That’s the truth.
7) if we allow the virus to keep spreading, keep mutating, keep adapting to our bodies, and if someday a new variant arises that is R0=12… then we might be toast… it’s in the epidemiology math.
8) What could come next? The @CDCgov doesn’t seem to really know. Their 26 different projection models are all over the place. @ScottGottliebMD is right that the “CDC doesn’t know how to model this wave” of #DeltaVariant.
9) As I suspected… the Deep South states are kind of stuck in a bad place with #DeltaVariant… vaccinations slowed to a crawl, and little mask compliance or other mitigation. They are out of other good options. And no political willpower for lockdowns. nytimes.com/2021/07/25/us/…

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More from @DrEricDing

Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jul
Why vaccine mandate: “You don’t have a choice to go out and drink and drive and put everybody else’s lives at risk. That’s the equivalent of this moment with the deadliness & efficiency of the #DeltaVariant virus” @GavinNewsom, announcing CA state mandate.
2) Weekly #COVID19 testing or have vaccination. That’s fair. Though I will say once a week is very leaky.
3) New York City same vaccine mandate or negative Covid test for public employees.
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jul
🎼How many kids must be hospital-ized— before we call @BorisJohnson insane? 🎼Tell me how many kids must be scarred for life, before @sajidjavid is forever banned? ➡️The answer my friend, is way too damn many, way to damn late, the answer is way too sad.

Figure @jneill #COVID19 Image
2) let this sink in — The new #DeltaVariant is worse than all previous waves for pediatric hospitalizations!!! The data doesn’t lie folks. Don’t let the down-players and minimizers dismiss these.
3) Really? Really. A scientist advising the UK 🇬🇧 government has accused leaders of allowing infections to rip through the younger population. @BorisJohnson & @sajidjavid also cunningly using rhetoric about caution as ‘a way of putting blame on public’. amp.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jul
VACCINE PASSES—3.7 million booked vaccine appointments after vaccine passes required for dining. This will save lives and helping to restore economic and mental health. Other developed countries need to do the same. #VaccinePassport #vaccinate #COVID19

washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
2) President Macron’s “approach of ordering health workers to get vaccinated by Sept. 15, and rest of the 🇫🇷 population they will be denied access to most indoor public venues if unvaccinated or without a negative test, has prompted other countries including Italy to follow suit”
3) Meanwhile, in the United States, we are still pleading with the unpersuadables to stop listening to anti-vaccination cranks and risking their own lives and others around them. apnews.com/article/joe-bi…
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jul
Huge—nearly 60 major medical organizations, including the American Medical Association and the American Nurses Association, called on Monday for mandatory vaccination of health care workers.

nytimes.com/2021/07/26/hea…
2) As the highly contagious Delta variant drives a new surge of coronavirus cases, vaccination is an ethical obligation for health care workers, the groups said in a joint statement. acponline.org/acp_policy/sta…
3) ““Due to the recent Covid-19 surge and the availability of safe and effective vaccines, our health care organizations and societies advocate that all health care and long-term care employers require their workers to receive the Covid-19 vaccine,” the statement said.
Read 13 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jul
Cunningly evil—A scientist advising the UK 🇬🇧 government has accused leaders of allowing infections to rip through the younger population. @BorisJohnson & @sajidjavid also cunningly using rhetoric about caution as ‘a way of putting blame on public’.
theguardian.com/world/2021/jul…
2) “The allegation comes after England’s remaining Covid restrictions were eased on Monday, with nightclubs throwing open their doors for the first time in the pandemic and all rules on social distancing and mask wearing dropped even as infections run high.”
3) almost 1 million new cases of #DeltaVariant in the UK 🇬🇧 in the past month. It will likely continue in England under the new lifting of Covid safety measures
Read 4 tweets
Eric Feigl-Ding Profile picture
26 Jul
🔥WOW—Anna Kiesenhofer, the amateur mathematician rider, rode off with an improbable Olympic gold medal. Why? She has a PhD in math, never won a major 🚴 event, manages own training, teaches university, 🇦🇹team=herself, doesn’t have coach or pro contract! washingtonpost.com/sports/olympic… Image
2) incredible — “Kiesenhofer switched to cycling in 2014 after injuries kept her from running in triathlons and duathlons. She rode for a Catalan amateur team and won the Spanish National Cup overall title in 2016 as her academic career was flourishing.”
3) Kiesenhofer’s university in Lausanne Switzerland 🇨🇭 gives her a shoutout.
Read 10 tweets

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