China's tech etc crackdown is leading to a huge valuation change, eg here NASDAQ Golden Dragon Index capturing lge and mid cap Ch tech stocks trading in NY. Buying opportunity or giant wake up call? Here's why it's more likely the latter /1
Fair to say that every sector has its own tale to tell.. fintech, data, tutoring, music streaming etc. But the big pic narrative is abt the pol crackdown on private firms, especially those with lots of foreign investment (direct and via listings in the US), interest and ideas./2
More private firms are being brought to heel as control > growth and innovation.Contradiction is clear. Government doubtless believes in power of tech firms to change the world in its favour but clampdown is frustrating its own ambition. Not widely appreciated yet, or priced /3
U might say, stocks tell us little about the economy, but equally the value investors put on firms tells abt unbiased prospects of those firms at cutting edge of the economy. As crackdown continues, re-valuation of stocks will too. But this is bigger than stock mkt alone. Ends
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The centenary is actually later this month not today, but the CCP doesn’t let facts interfere with its version of history. Today’s big speech by Gen Sec Xi Jinping was typically nationalistic. Main take aways /1
In a strongly nationalist appeal to his own citizens and warning to the US and other states, the main take-away is irony. He emphasised and drew applause for saying that foreign powers would ‘get their heads bashed’ if they attempted to bully or influence China. /2
Yet outside China, the dominant view is that it is Beijing that seeks to bully, influence, and even interfere so as to stifle criticism of and gather support for China’s narratives and actions. /3
Some inflation comment here. With annual CPI now at 4.2% and core at 3%, the post pandemic path of inflation is clearly stirring worries. The monthly changes this year so far are feisty, but there are some good reasons to think this isn't simply a post pandemic thing /1
One key factor is the monetary backdrop which is still quite unusual, and accommodative in ways that we never saw after the GFC. Demand deposits, not just banks' balances at the Fed, are booming, making for potentially very fertile spending backdrop. /2
Materials shortages, long delivery times, supply chain choke points are joining rising commodity prices and rising pay in a chorus of inflation pressures, we haven't seen for a long time. Service workers comp rose by over 5% annualised in Q1, the biggest gain for 20 yrs /3
Big headline annual surge in China’s GDP in 1st qtr, but largely due to almost 10% reported quarterly fall this time last year. On a quarterly basis, last quarter was actually a damp squib riding just 0.6%, aka 2.4% annualised. /1
This follows a 2.5% quarterly rise in Q4 2020. At this rate, officially reported growth will be tumbling rapidly before year end towards 4%. Jan/Feb were esp disappointing partly related to a COVID scare, but the structure of the GDP growth - more details tomorrow - was too. /2
Most of the increase was thanks to industry and construction. Plus exports. Consumer spending is showing good y/y comparisons of course, but isn’t carrying the load as one might have hoped. /3
As always look at these numbers through more calibrated lenses than cheerleading authors. Example: citing China’s ambitious planned urbanisation rise from 69 to 65% doesn’t map with eg Scott Rozelle’s trenchant research in which he says only 34% of pop have urban hukou .....1/
....registration. So there are many ppl classified as urban who have neither urban status and benefits or live in places only loosely urban. Same with R&D spending. Compounding growth over 5 years tells you little about quality or content. ....2/
....and as China’s former Industry Minister, Miao Wei, confirmed last Sunday, China is weak in foundational technologies and products. So catch up needs to be qualified. ...3/
Short version, with comment, of Li Keqiang's Government Work Report today at China's National People's Congress. More details on 14th FYP by early next week. Try this for starters. 1/ 11
Leaving aside backward looking parts of the GWR, with emphasis on the positive economic consequences of containing the pandemic and on eradication of poverty, the forward-looking parts were rather sober overall. 2/11
Contrary to expectations, the govt did announce a growth target of 'about 6 per cent', but in 2021, hitting this target will be like falling off a log in a fast flowing river. Li said there will be annual targets for economic growth. Hmmm 3/11
Hooray, I have found a soul mate in @CapEconomics whose latest rpt says 'Our long-run forecasts suggest that China will still be the second largest economy, measured at market exchange rates, in 2050'. My view too. Read on /1
They say that if China hasn't overtaken the US by 2030, it won't. and even if it did, the bragging rights might not last (my words). They say China's poorer demographics and output per worker are the key drivers of this non consensus view. I think there's more /2
So I would add 2 things. First, the prod'ty part of this is key. I'm also more optimistic that US economic structure, assets and strengths still give it an edge, along with politics permitting more robust institutions and stronger tech branding and commercialising capability /3