Thread by @EFTA4UK

@Dominic2306 is talking again. What have we learned? Did he ever have a plan for a successful Brexit? And did it involve staying in, or leaving, the #SingleMarket? THREAD

https://twitter.com/EFTA4UK/status/1419549103382478850

@Dominic2306’s discussion with @DavidGauke is worth a read. He admits that costs of 🇬🇧 leaving SM were supposed to fall on 🇮🇪. This is foolhardy in itself, but symptomatic of the lack of a wider plan.

https://twitter.com/DavidGauke/status/1419611955137024002

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@Dominic2306 @DavidGauke Staying in SM under #EFTA would of course solve #NI. But did @VoteLeave say to stay in, or to leave, the Single Market? Well, both. But the important promise was that of no adverse changes. /2

Leaving CU under #EFTA while keeping independent trade policy is no prob. ICS2 loops 🇳🇴🇨🇭 into 🇪🇺 customs processes to minimise friction ec.europa.eu/taxation_custo… /3

Regarding Single Market, well in one sense, yes, they said to leave it… /4 news.bbc.co.uk/2/shared/bsp/h…

…For regulatory autonomy… voteleavetakecontrol.org/priti_patel_sp… /5

…But @michaelgove’s 19.04.16 speech curiously says “maintain the current free trade arrangements”. He even mentioned an improved #EFTA thetimes.co.uk/article/brexit… /6

So far so bizarre…leave the SM for regulatory autonomy, but everything stays the same: “no new trade barriers” according to Raab. theguardian.com/politics/2019/… /7

If you’re thinking “that’s not how any of this works” then you’d be right! It’s a bit like promising to end FoM for 🇪🇺 citizens but to keep it for 🇬🇧 citizens. It’s reciprocal!!

https://mobile.twitter.com/Andrew_Adonis/status/1411323107823005698

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The SM eliminates regulatory non-tariff barriers (#NTBs) incl borders, paperwork, etc by harmonising regulations. Unless you think 🇬🇧 would be an exception, these statements are clearly contradictory. Maybe this is what @VoteLeave meant by a “better deal” /9

Of course, it’s easy to say this now. Back in ’16 nobody had ever left 🇪🇺. Maybe they were making it up as they went along. Or maybe they genuinely believed that the 🇩🇪 car manufacturers would ensure that 🇬🇧 would be an exception. /10

Either way, once it turned out to not be deliverable, the govt should have re-assessed, instead of doing this: convincing themselves that 🇪🇺 was going to cave at the last minute.

https://mobile.twitter.com/SHKMEP/status/1419553142216314894

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That would of course have put the govt in a bit of a quandary: which of the irreconcilable @VoteLeave promises - regulatory autonomy, or maintaining the current free trade arrangements - to keep and which to break? If policy = “respect referendum”, what did voters think? /12

Very few polls work like this. Regulatory autonomy and frictionless trade are both good things per se. Most polls ask people whether they want something or not. But to answer this Q, you need to stop promising all things to all people and find out what people value *more* /13

We are aware of one such choice exercise, and the results are clear: the worst thing the government could do would be to impose extra costs on UK exporters kcl.ac.uk/policy-institu… /14

But wait, what extra costs? We have zero-tariff zero-quota FTA….but extra costs because no longer in regulatory union. Though poorly understood, #NTBs are more important than tariffs.

https://mobile.twitter.com/JamesMilbourne/status/1366354557266182144

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And this has had deleterious effects. The title of this is wrong: it’s the cost of leaving the SM, not the cost of Brexit. But £10bn a month just in goods is a whopping cost nonetheless. cer.eu/insights/cost-… /16

Let’s bring in the foodies to make it more real fdf.org.uk/fdf/news-media… /17

Having promised to “maintain the current free trade arrangements”, not maintaining them broke the mandate. There was never a popular will to throw 🇬🇧 exporters to 🇪🇺 under the bus. /18

Back in 2015 all the Brexiteers were saying #EFTA…and of course, the reference to 🇮🇸 in the title tweet was disingenuous if #EFTA was not the plan. So why did 🇬🇧 end up leaving SM and doing all this damage to its exports? /19

Because @Dominic2306 freelanced the campaign behind the backs of more progressive Brexiteers. In 2015 he advocated “swerving” the whole issue of post-Brexit 🇬🇧🇪🇺 relations. dominiccummings.com/2015/06/23/on-… /20

…@Dominic2306 haughtily says (previous link) “the idea that the public could be educated seems unlikely”…hence strategy of “promise whatever wins votes” was born. Potential issue w 🇮🇪 border + GFA? Just wish it away. bbc.com/news/uk-northe… /21

Freelancing did not stop there: “we had to create a string of Potemkin committees for people to attend while core team did the campaign” dominiccummings.com/2017/01/09/on-… /22

That blog post is story of how @Dominic2306 + data scientists ran @VoteLeave, keeping important stuff – untrackable microtargeted xenophobic digital ads worth 98% of budget – away from eyes of those supporting more progressive ideas like @DanielJHannan’s Global Britain /23

And instead focused it squarely on “Turkey/NHS/£350 million” laying the ground for the radicalisation of the political sphere and the electorate. /24

This skewed why Brexit came onto agenda at all – 🇪🇺 becoming political union – and what the only viable plan always was: re-joining #EFTA as way to stay in SM w/o getting sucked into federal superstate.

https://mobile.twitter.com/EFTA4UK/status/1366107956065013762

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The problem of ever-closer union hasn’t gone away: see the debate among the 🇩🇪 chancellor candidates all calling for common foreign policy by QMV /26

Or the collective debt issuance worldpoliticsreview.com/articles/28949… /27

Which, incidentally, all shows why Remainers’ “remain and reform” message was also a unicorn and still is: 🇪🇺 reforms only in one direction. /28

And of course 🇬🇧 will not re-join 🇪🇺 as that would mean Euro, no opt-outs, etc. But we didn’t have to ruin our exports. Doing so undermined @VoteLeave’s mandate: they explicitly promised that this would NOT happen. /29

This all results from Cummings’ lack of a plan: his complete lack of interest in policy solutions at the altar of his (and it is) incredibly clever data-led campaigning. Say whatever the data says is necessary to win. Will we be able to deliver? Meh. /30

But those who originally floated re-joining #EFTA had a viable plan, and we still do. Is #EFTA perfect? No. Is it better than pursuing the myth of re-joining what is becoming a political union? And is it better than the current chaos? Of course. #upgrade2efta /END