Mental models allow an investor to quickly analyze a company based on learned heuristics and pattern recognition.

This week we review 3 of our favorites:

- Marshmallow Test
- Cult-Like Communities
- Paradox of Choice

What are your favorite models?
macroops.substack.com/p/three-useful…
1/ Marshmallow Test Model

Any company deferring today’s profits for tomorrow’s success is building a Marshmallow-Test Business Model.

Think of a company like $RDFN. They're paying agents full-time salaries in a highly cyclical environment.

Why? They're focusing on 2morrow
2/ Cult-Like Communities

This model is simple: Find things that people use to signal social status, then create a brand that brings those people together.

Companies like $PTON, $YETI, $TSLA, and $LULU all fit this model.

How? By creating shared values / community w/ customer
3/ Paradox of Choice

Helping customers solve the Paradox of Choice is a valuable and highly profitable endeavor.

Companies do this through a few mechanisms like brand name trust, curated algorithms, and scarcity.

These tools reduce 'choice-friction' and save customer time.
4/ Subscribe Here

If you enjoyed this essay, please subscribe to my Substack (link below).

We find the world's best businesses trading at prices that don't reflect that reality.

We also write extensive deep dives on the market's biggest winners.
macroops.substack.com

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More from @marketplunger1

20 Jul
The more I think about cryptos, the more I believe it's not "democratizing" finance for anyone.

Rather, it's a social status game for those that have the discretionary income to play around with the "future" of finance.

I'm MOST LIKELY wrong, but a thread on my thoughts ...
1/ Crypto-bros/gals claim that BTC (and others) help democratize finance, giving opp. to those that otherwise couldn't.

Yet today's popular use cases are the antithesis of that movement/goal.

Some examples:

- Trading/Speculation
- Earning "income" from games
- Selling NFTs
2/ The average, middle-to-lower class American doesn't have the time to engage in these activities.

They're working for $USD to pay for rent, food, and child's education.

Most don't have extra cash to buy the "democratizing" currency of the future, let alone gamble it.
Read 6 tweets
30 Jun
Top 10 names in the new Metaverse ETF $META:

1. Nvidia Corp $NVDA
2. Tencent $700.HK
3. Roblox $RBLX
4. Microsoft $MSFT
5. Fastly $FSLY
6. Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM
7. Unity Software $U
8. Autodesk $ADSK
9. Amazon $AMZN
10. Qualcomm $QCOM

THREAD: METAVERSE PITCH DECK
1/ Size of The Prize

Bloomberg Intelligence estimates Metaverse market opportunity at $800B by 2024.

Cathie Wood/@ARKInvest estimate that revenue from virtual worlds could reach $400B by 2024
2/ COVID Kickstarted Metaverse Adoption

McKinsey & Co. states that >50% of surveyors prefer their employers adopt a hybrid virtual working model.

This primes people to interact online/over digital channels, making it easier for those at the margin to transition to metaverse.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jun
From our high horse, we (investors) assume we'll spot tell-tale signs of an impending revenue growth slow-down.

That's not true.

[Thread]: Why its nearly impossible to predict when a company's growth will stall, the myths of soft landings, and market cap consequences
1/ The book "Stall Points" explains this concept perfectly.

We (investors) assume that we could spot the following to predict potential stall points:

- Revenue growth deceleration
- Gross margin compression
- Lack of business activity

None of these hold the answer.
2/ In fact, the reason why predicting stall points is impossible is because some co's do the EXACT OPPOSITE of what we think they should do.

Here's what I mean: Some businesses about to hit a stall point actually GROW revenues & margins!

Let's back this up with some data.
Read 10 tweets
7 Jun
I've seen many folks complain that they haven't found great ideas lately (some even 1YR+).

That's just not true if you venture outside the US.

But that's scary.

Here's what you do: find simple businesses

For example, Stock Exchanges

THREAD: 6 Stock Exchange Ideas
1/ Why Stock Exchanges?

Stock Exchanges are simple business that don't change (too much) depending on geography.

Plus, they're predisposed to monopoly/network-effect benefits as more people use a specific exchange.

Also, exchanges are as old as the 17th century (Lindy).
2/ Hong Kong $HKEX/388

World's largest exchange by market cap and and listed companies.

Stats:

- 96% GM
- 73% EBIT margin
- Almost no share dilution
- HK gov't largest shareholder (don't want to see it fail)
- 30% ROC
- 40x Normalized Earnings
Read 9 tweets
20 May
1/ “We can have no finer role model. He was a value investor — a member of that eccentric tribe that believes it’s better to underpay than to overpay.”

This thread reveals the story of the greatest value investor you've never heard of.

The story of Floyd Odlum.

THREAD
2/ With a decent income from his job as a law clerk, Odlum started trading in the stock market. He initially saw the market as a rich, fertile ground for speculative profits. Far from his cemented legacy as a deep value investor.
3/ Yet like most beginning speculators, Odlum too paid his fair share of market tuition.

After losing all his $40,000 starting capital, Odlum retreated from the markets. One newspaper revealed it, “took [Odlum] a while to pay back that sum”.
Read 24 tweets

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