It is conspicuous how public TPLF are being about their alleged conquests en-route to Gonder and Addis, now Debark and Weldiya. All this is clearly intended to cast fear among the people of Ethiopia.

But it could also be a diversionary tactic.
Similarly the latest disturbance in the Somali region, while technically not the TPLF, the timing of the occupation of the road and railway line by youths (foreshadowed by TPLF social media comms @RabdiAnalyst, seems designed to be an additional distraction.
With 3 armed columns moving deeper into Amhara/Ethiopia on different fronts TPLF forces are split up. There is as yet no record of the strength of these columns but absent intelligence as to their strength dealing with them will be stretching Ethiopia's defensive capacity also.
Meanwhile arguably the most important front, in the West, with Amhara controlled territory between Tigray and Sudan is quiet in social media terms. Why? It would be odd however if this were not a fourth TPLF front, as it is a route to Sudan and to potential arms resupply.
In which case TPLF forces must now be split into four groups, which would seem militarily reckless, especially with several of them now at considerable distance from Tigray in bad weather and tough terrain.
The statements from TPLF military commander Tsadkan Gebretensae released publicly two days ago are also odd. As are Reda Getachew's tweets.

Why telegraph your enemy your military plans, especially if you are on foot and outnumbered?
dailynewsegypt.com/2021/07/25/tig…
The fog of war is dense in Ethiopia today. I fear the real offensive hasn't yet begun, and that that will be in the West.

While there is some evidence that Western interests are waking up to the growing threat. Right now its too little too late.
ENDS/

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More from @althecat

28 Jul
This thread is about Typhoon #INFA, a storm the likes of which the world has never seen before. Enduring, unpredictable, astonishingly wet, massive, slow moving, and never alone.

And 13 days after designation as a storm, #INFA is far from finished in its journey of destruction
My coverage of #INFA began on 14th July after it had formed into a visible and formidable storm, albeit not yet a Typhoon. But by then weather models already showed it was a significant threat.

Not simply as a storm but as a broader weather pattern.
The area in which the storm was expected to form showed up in the models earlier. Here we see it on the 10th of July in the GFS MLSP forecast. But it was probably there even earlier.
Read 37 tweets
28 Jul
Notwithstanding #Olympics2021 or perhaps because of it, in relation to the clear breach of the solemn tradition of the Olympics Truce, the TPLF invasion of Ethiopia ought to be taken before the UNSC immediately.
This is a matter that has already been discussed by the UNSC as a humanitarian crisis. It is now rapidly escalating out of control as a security crisis. International news cover of the #Olympics2021 is being used by the aggressor, TPLF for its military offensive.
A UN @WFP humanitarian convoy has been attacked, and Ethiopia's unilateral ceasefire, entered into at the request of the IC, (UN, G7, EU and US), has been ignored. Ethiopian people, in isolated communities, face consequential threats from the TPLF on multiple fronts.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
Before we all get too excited about this new website, its important to scrutinize it at little.

Sometimes things are too good to be true, and this is conspiracy laden content. There are also lots of alarm bells around it. The site is brand new.
>> twitter.com/search?q=https…
It is also anonymous. It is exclusively focused on Ethiopia, and it is very professionally executed. These things are all red flags. Especially when taken together.

The website is three weeks old and has only 7 posts.

I like it. But I think it needs to be checked out.
The site has two twitter accounts:

@GeopolPress
&
@GPEditor

The second one seems to be a lot more active and looks like a good place to start looking for clues about who is behind this.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jul
Ok. So here's some more content that you probably won't want to see... but again its interesting as it reveals I think the TPLF current thinking.

Matt Bryden is a "senior strategic advisor" and director at Sahan, a private intel firm which works on Horn issues.
In a former life Canadian Bryden worked for the UN. But was sacked in 2012 for "lack of professionalism and political bias .... severely undermining the credibility of the United Nations." tesfanews.net/un-chief-fired…
At SAHAN Bryden works with @RAbdiAnalyst_ who was appointed to run social media for SAHAN, with a "team of young dedicare (sic.) analysts trained in social media monitoring, targeting, grooming and exploitation."

I.E. Social media psy-ops. Which explains a lot.
Read 40 tweets
27 Jul
This new publication on a U.S. publication which services Homeland Security communities, Central Govt., State and corporate provides a glimpse behind the curtain WRT US security interests views on the Tigray War.

Warning: Might be triggering....
hstoday.us/subject-matter…
The authors are certainly qualified:
Hafsa Mohamed: Bio hstoday.us/author/hmohame…
& Mohamed Ahmed
hstoday.us/author/mahmed/
At this link you can see who has tweeted the link. The article is relatively new and so has not yet been picked up in a significant way by the TPLF community.
twitter.com/search?q=https…
Read 12 tweets
26 Jul
A global weather surveillance thread.

We begin in the West Pacific where Typhoon #INFA is now over China bringing rain to 100s of millions.
Here's a closeup of #INFA over the past 12 hours rain bands have now reached the already flooded Henan province.
Some early coverage of the impact here: nypost.com/2021/07/26/chi…

Including more harrowing video of flooding.
Read 18 tweets

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