Thread by @althecat

It is conspicuous how public TPLF are being about their alleged conquests en-route to Gonder and Addis, now Debark and Weldiya. All this is clearly intended to cast fear among the people of Ethiopia.

But it could also be a diversionary tactic.

Similarly the latest disturbance in the Somali region, while technically not the TPLF, the timing of the occupation of the road and railway line by youths (foreshadowed by TPLF social media comms @RabdiAnalyst, seems designed to be an additional distraction.

With 3 armed columns moving deeper into Amhara/Ethiopia on different fronts TPLF forces are split up. There is as yet no record of the strength of these columns but absent intelligence as to their strength dealing with them will be stretching Ethiopia's defensive capacity also.

Meanwhile arguably the most important front, in the West, with Amhara controlled territory between Tigray and Sudan is quiet in social media terms. Why? It would be odd however if this were not a fourth TPLF front, as it is a route to Sudan and to potential arms resupply.

In which case TPLF forces must now be split into four groups, which would seem militarily reckless, especially with several of them now at considerable distance from Tigray in bad weather and tough terrain.

The statements from TPLF military commander Tsadkan Gebretensae released publicly two days ago are also odd. As are Reda Getachew's tweets.

Why telegraph your enemy your military plans, especially if you are on foot and outnumbered?
dailynewsegypt.com/2021/07/25/tig…

The fog of war is dense in Ethiopia today. I fear the real offensive hasn't yet begun, and that that will be in the West.

While there is some evidence that Western interests are waking up to the growing threat. Right now its too little too late.

https://twitter.com/Qnie_Addis/status/1420349766014283783?s=20

ENDS/

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