A global weather surveillance thread.

We begin in the West Pacific where Typhoon #INFA is now over China bringing rain to 100s of millions.
Here's a closeup of #INFA over the past 12 hours rain bands have now reached the already flooded Henan province.
Some early coverage of the impact here: nypost.com/2021/07/26/chi…

Including more harrowing video of flooding.
Here we see the #3rd storm TS #Nepartak arriving in Japan tonight. Rain bands have just reached Tokyo where #Olympics2021 is underway.
And a long range forecast (16 days GFS Precipitable Water). Unfortunately #INFA's gyre which spawned #Nepartak is not going away and nor it seems is #INFA's water. The typhoon will be gone leaving behind a massive shemozzel and lots more rain for China.
Moving East here's a view of India's monsoon today (RHS) and the Arabian Peninsula and #HornOfAfrica (LHS). Unusual monsoon powered storms continue over the Arabian Desert an in the Horn massive rains which risk flooding the Nile continues.
Here's a 10 day PWAT forecast for the same area from Australia's GFS forecast. The forecast shows the monsoon backing off a bit which will provide some welcome relief for the Arabian Peninsula which has been experiencing daily massive storms, and associated flooding.
A view of #NorthAfrica today. The air over the Sahara is holding high levels of atmospheric moisture. The top left you see some moisture condensing as cloud and crossing the Mediterranean, adding fuel to European storms where there was extreme flooding again yesterday.
The first of two animations which help illustrate how the unsually strong West African Monsoon is contributing to Europe's weather woes.
This image shows the Jetstream winds at 11-15kms up. Europe's storms have two sources of moisture visible here. A strong stream from the North Atlantic joins water coming up over the Western end of the Sahara driven a circular wind current sitting on top of a low.
Here's a view of the storms over Europe yesterday which are fairly obviously being assisted by the injection of water and storms coming in over Algeria and Italy.
And here we see today. With much the same thing happening, only getting bigger.

This is a similar overall setup to the pattern which brought the German Floods 11 days ago. Only this time the scale is larger and the circulation less defined.
Yesterday Belgium once again received catastrophic flooding. news.sky.com/story/belgium-…
This animation shows the next three days of jetstream level winds. For this period they remain favourable to providing further fuel to the European storm complex from the south West.
Here we see the PWAT picture in Europe (GFS model 16 days). Weather over the area looks set to remain wet for some time.
This 10 day jet stream forecast is what is moving the moisture to the east in the previous animation.
These surveillance threads will be an occasional feature going ahead. A weekly thread focussed on #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast will also be maintained.

Yesterday's thread is here:


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More from @althecat

28 Jul
This thread is about Typhoon #INFA, a storm the likes of which the world has never seen before. Enduring, unpredictable, astonishingly wet, massive, slow moving, and never alone.

And 13 days after designation as a storm, #INFA is far from finished in its journey of destruction ImageImageImage
My coverage of #INFA began on 14th July after it had formed into a visible and formidable storm, albeit not yet a Typhoon. But by then weather models already showed it was a significant threat.

Not simply as a storm but as a broader weather pattern.
The area in which the storm was expected to form showed up in the models earlier. Here we see it on the 10th of July in the GFS MLSP forecast. But it was probably there even earlier.
Read 36 tweets
28 Jul
Notwithstanding #Olympics2021 or perhaps because of it, in relation to the clear breach of the solemn tradition of the Olympics Truce, the TPLF invasion of Ethiopia ought to be taken before the UNSC immediately.
This is a matter that has already been discussed by the UNSC as a humanitarian crisis. It is now rapidly escalating out of control as a security crisis. International news cover of the #Olympics2021 is being used by the aggressor, TPLF for its military offensive.
A UN @WFP humanitarian convoy has been attacked, and Ethiopia's unilateral ceasefire, entered into at the request of the IC, (UN, G7, EU and US), has been ignored. Ethiopian people, in isolated communities, face consequential threats from the TPLF on multiple fronts.
Read 4 tweets
28 Jul
It is conspicuous how public TPLF are being about their alleged conquests en-route to Gonder and Addis, now Debark and Weldiya. All this is clearly intended to cast fear among the people of Ethiopia.

But it could also be a diversionary tactic.
Similarly the latest disturbance in the Somali region, while technically not the TPLF, the timing of the occupation of the road and railway line by youths (foreshadowed by TPLF social media comms @RAbdiAnalyst, seems designed to be an additional distraction.
With 3 armed columns moving deeper into Amhara/Ethiopia on different fronts TPLF forces are split up. There is as yet no record of the strength of these columns but absent intelligence as to their strength dealing with them will be stretching Ethiopia's defensive capacity also.
Read 8 tweets
28 Jul
Before we all get too excited about this new website, its important to scrutinize it at little.

Sometimes things are too good to be true, and this is conspiracy laden content. There are also lots of alarm bells around it. The site is brand new.
>> twitter.com/search?q=https…
It is also anonymous. It is exclusively focused on Ethiopia, and it is very professionally executed. These things are all red flags. Especially when taken together.

The website is three weeks old and has only 7 posts.

I like it. But I think it needs to be checked out. ImageImageImage
The site has two twitter accounts:


The second one seems to be a lot more active and looks like a good place to start looking for clues about who is behind this.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jul
Ok. So here's some more content that you probably won't want to see... but again its interesting as it reveals I think the TPLF current thinking.

Matt Bryden is a "senior strategic advisor" and director at Sahan, a private intel firm which works on Horn issues.
In a former life Canadian Bryden worked for the UN. But was sacked in 2012 for "lack of professionalism and political bias .... severely undermining the credibility of the United Nations." tesfanews.net/un-chief-fired…
At SAHAN Bryden works with @RAbdiAnalyst_ who was appointed to run social media for SAHAN, with a "team of young dedicare (sic.) analysts trained in social media monitoring, targeting, grooming and exploitation."

I.E. Social media psy-ops. Which explains a lot.
Read 40 tweets
27 Jul
This new publication on a U.S. publication which services Homeland Security communities, Central Govt., State and corporate provides a glimpse behind the curtain WRT US security interests views on the Tigray War.

Warning: Might be triggering....
The authors are certainly qualified:
Hafsa Mohamed: Bio hstoday.us/author/hmohame…
& Mohamed Ahmed
At this link you can see who has tweeted the link. The article is relatively new and so has not yet been picked up in a significant way by the TPLF community.
Read 12 tweets

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