Thread by @althecat

A global weather surveillance thread.

We begin in the West Pacific where Typhoon #INFA is now over China bringing rain to 100s of millions.

Here's a closeup of #INFA over the past 12 hours rain bands have now reached the already flooded Henan province.

Some early coverage of the impact here: nypost.com/2021/07/26/chi…

Including more harrowing video of flooding.

Here we see the #3rd storm TS #Nepartak arriving in Japan tonight. Rain bands have just reached Tokyo where #Olympics2021 is underway.

Coverage here:
eu.usatoday.com/story/sports/o…

And a long range forecast (16 days GFS Precipitable Water). Unfortunately #INFA's gyre which spawned #Nepartak is not going away and nor it seems is #INFA's water. The typhoon will be gone leaving behind a massive shemozzel and lots more rain for China.

Moving East here's a view of India's monsoon today (RHS) and the Arabian Peninsula and #HornOfAfrica (LHS). Unusual monsoon powered storms continue over the Arabian Desert an in the Horn massive rains which risk flooding the Nile continues.

Here's a 10 day PWAT forecast for the same area from Australia's GFS forecast. The forecast shows the monsoon backing off a bit which will provide some welcome relief for the Arabian Peninsula which has been experiencing daily massive storms, and associated flooding.

A view of #NorthAfrica today. The air over the Sahara is holding high levels of atmospheric moisture. The top left you see some moisture condensing as cloud and crossing the Mediterranean, adding fuel to European storms where there was extreme flooding again yesterday.

The first of two animations which help illustrate how the unsually strong West African Monsoon is contributing to Europe's weather woes.

This image shows the Jetstream winds at 11-15kms up. Europe's storms have two sources of moisture visible here. A strong stream from the North Atlantic joins water coming up over the Western end of the Sahara driven a circular wind current sitting on top of a low.

Here's a view of the storms over Europe yesterday which are fairly obviously being assisted by the injection of water and storms coming in over Algeria and Italy.

And here we see today. With much the same thing happening, only getting bigger.

This is a similar overall setup to the pattern which brought the German Floods 11 days ago. Only this time the scale is larger and the circulation less defined.

Yesterday Belgium once again received catastrophic flooding. news.sky.com/story/belgium-…

This animation shows the next three days of jetstream level winds. For this period they remain favourable to providing further fuel to the European storm complex from the south West.

Here we see the PWAT picture in Europe (GFS model 16 days). Weather over the area looks set to remain wet for some time.

This 10 day jet stream forecast is what is moving the moisture to the east in the previous animation.

These surveillance threads will be an occasional feature going ahead. A weekly thread focussed on #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast will also be maintained.

Yesterday's thread is here:

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1419381904550289415?s=20

/ENDS

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