It's not revisionist, Francois. A lot of us pointed this out very much at the start- remember the John Snow Memo. While you were signing letters supporting a strategy of focused protection - a letter that stated cases would've declined in our 1st wave without lockdown anyway. 🧵
And there is no 'logistical support' that makes this viable as many of us pointed out & as this study shows. Vulnerable people are part of society. They live in households & form part of interconnected networks in society. You cannot protect them without containing the pandemic.
Maybe have the humility of accepting you promoted a flawed strategy, rather than attacking the people who challenged it rightly from the start (not in retrospect). Some self-reflection wouldn't go amiss here.
you've already blocked me, but do feel free to continue to attack/troll me, or subtweet about me, and others who've called it right from the start.

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More from @dgurdasani1

30 Jul
Strongly recommend reading this doc from SAGE on virus evolution released today. Alongside several scenarios, it assesses the risk of variants emerging that lead to 'vaccine failure' as 'almost certain' & recommends controlling transmission to avert this. This is a stark warning. Image
We seem to be taking the very path that will get us to this devastating outcome. Given the impact delta has already had, & in light of recent evidence from the CDC, we cannot afford any more new variants emerging - we need to take preventive action now.

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
And contrary to suggestions by some that SARS-CoV-2 is moving to becoming more benign (refuted by the fact that several more severe variants have already evolved and spread), it considers a move to more severe variants a 'realistic possibility' Image
Read 4 tweets
30 Jul
The PHE report released yesterday shows inconsistencies between case rates in England & positivity (the proportion of tests that are positive). This together with ONS data today suggests that at least some of the steep drops in cases we're seeing are down to less testing.🧵
First, let's compare case incidence to positivity rates. Case incidence depends on overall number of positive COVID-19 cases found each week. Positivity looks at proportion of tests that were positive. Case numbers will depend on background incidence & level of testing.
Positivity can help us when tests are declining, because cases found can come down when people aren't being tested for whatever reason. But positivity should remain high. The PHE report shows sharp declines in cases, but only very recent plateauing/slight decline of positivity. Image
Read 29 tweets
27 Jul
If true, this is v. concerning- a meeting with MPs organised via @thelucyjohnston with Dingwall, Brookes, Heneghan & Gupta in Jan 2021 - after the infamous meeting between BJ, Gupta & Heneghan last Sept where they advised not to lockdown- a delay that caused thousands of deaths🧵
Lucy Johnston has spoken about voices of scientists associated with GBD & the Us for them group being silenced. Interesting she says that here given these scientists have had access to MPs, and senior officials in govt in a way most of us don't.

It looks like they've had preferential access to MPs in a way that isn't transparent. But is v. concerning given the 'herd immunity by infection', eugenics, & anti-mask narratives associated with many of these groups. Why is our govt listening to know proponents of pseudoscience?
Read 6 tweets
24 Jul
Being cautious & protecting oneself & others isn't 'cowering'? Many want to protect themselves & loved ones, including CEV & those who're unvaccinated, who are even greater risk. Those who are vaccinated can get infected, transmit & get long COVID. What sort of messaging is this?
I'm CV & vaccinated. Your policy is that people like me should shield. Is this 'cowering'? Are you saying that we're cowards for following your policies, that ask us to shield because we're no longer protected when we go out? Because you removed those protections?
Is my husband a 'coward' because he takes care to not meet with others without masks, distancing & ventilation so he doesn't put me and my daughter at risk, who isn't eligible for vaccination? Because he worries that I might get very ill if I get infected?
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
Let's looks at the highly flawed study that is being cited as showing no difference between LFD testing and isolation of contacts in schools. This is simply incorrect, and the premise of the trial as reported in the preprint out now is rather shocking from an ethics perspective🧵
First, this is a 'non-inferiority' trial. Such trials essentially compare A with B, and decide what level of difference between A (intervention) and B (control) would be acceptable before hand, and design the trial only to pick up this difference.
So such trials cannot say A=B, but can say A is not worse than B by x% (with x% being decided beforehand).
So what difference was this trial designed to find?

It was designed to find a 50% or greater change in transmission in the intervention compared to control arm.
Read 23 tweets
20 Jul
Ok, time to do a thread on long COVID. Long COVID is a *real* multi-system syndrome that occurs in those infected (far more common than in uninfected controls)- predominantly impacting the young. Let's do a deep delve into this syndrome that some in JCVI are in denial about! 🧵
Some stats first - there are several studies that now put the overall incidence of long COVID as between 10-50% of those infected, depending on symptoms studied & cohorts studied. Let's look at some of these.
First, ONS data & REACT-1 data- these are some of the most robust data on long COVID. Why?
-They include infections based on PCR tests through random nationally representative surveys of thousands of people
-ONS data was based on 313,216 samples, REACT-1 on 508,707 people
Read 35 tweets

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