[Thread] 1. How far are we behind with our original #VaccineRolloutSA targets? Dr Jabu Mtsweni from @CSIR has analysed this.

What is our target? To vaccinate 40 million adults in SA by March 2022.
2. How do we measure if we're reaching targets?
1. We can look at the nr of doses we administer in either a 5 (without weekends) or 7 day week
2. We can count how many people are fully vaccinated, but the nr of doses we count are different for JnJ (1 dose) and Pfizer (2 doses)
3. So how is SA doing?
1. Average nr of doses/day = 173 258
2. 80% of the doses = Pfizer (2 doses) and 20% = JnJ (Pfizer was up until recently, the only jab available to SA to roll out at sites)
3. Using more 2 dose jabs makes us move slower on targets for full vaccinations
4. Weekends show huge dips in vaccination numbers
* On weekends we've done an average of 26 000 jabs/day (compared to 173 258 on weekdays)
* Gauteng leads in terms of weekday numbers (66 000 per day)
* NC has done the fewest vaccinations (3 776 per day)
5. How many jabs do we need to do/day to reach targets (64.6 mil more jabs by March)?
1. To reach 40 mil people by 31 March (if we do vaccinations 7 days per week): 264 000 jabs/day
2. To reach 40 mil people by 31 March (if we do vaccinations 5 days per week): 369 000 jabs/day
6. If we assume that 15% of the 40 mil adults we'd like to vaccinate, will choose to not be vaccinated, then we'd have to administer another 54.9 mil doses by 31 March, so our targets would be lower:

1. 223k jabs per day (for a 7 day wk)
2. 313 k per day (for a 5 day wk)
7. So is 250 000+ jabs per day a realistic target? Yes, based on what countries with similar populations to SA (SA pop = 60 mil) do:
1. France does 500 000 jabs per day
2. South Korea does 200 000+ jabs per day (pop = 65 mil)
8. Are we behind with original targets? Yes.
1. How many doses has SA done? 7.3 mil
2. How many doses should we have done to be on target? 16.5 mil (7 days wk)
3. How far behind are we? 9.2 mil doses
4. How many doses are left to do (for a largely #Pfizer strategy)? 64.6 mil
9. This slide shows the original vaccination targets for each province + how far behind we are:

E.g., Gauteng
1. Original target = 4.2 mil doses
2. We've done: 1.7 mil doses
3. Shortfall = 2.5 mil doses

Main reason for delay: LACK of doses supplied to SA by drug companies
10. How many doses will we have administered by March if we keep going at our current pace?
- 40 mill (we need to do 54.9 mil if we work with a 15% vaccine hesitancy and a largely Pfizer campaign)
11. How is SA performing with #VaccineRollOutSA compared to other African countries?
We've done more vaccinations than most other African countries (only Morocco has done more than us, acc to @mediahackza's dashboard: bit.ly/3xcM5KK)
12. Weekends, public holidays and national events (e.g elections) may affect when SA reaches its #VaccineRollOutSA targets. We need to perform consistently for the entire vaccination period to reach our targets.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Mia Malan

Mia Malan Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @miamalan

30 Jul
[Thread] 1. What's happening with our #VaccineRollOutSA doses — will we have enough and are we reaching the right people?

Nicholas Crisp, @healthza:
We crossed the 7 mil mark for vaccine doses administered this week, but we're not yet reaching enough 60+ (most vulnerable).
2. Crisp:
1. 80% (4, 416, 391) of 60+ have been vaccinated with at least one dose
2. 15% (727, 839) of 50+ have been vaccinated with at least one dose

@healthza's goal for Aug: 1 out of 7 vaccinations has to be for 60+
3. Crisp:
We're not reaching the desired public/private mix for jabs: there is far more capacity in the private sector than what we're currently using

Below is a screen grab from @healthza's dashboard that shows a breakdown of the % of jabs done at pub/priv sites on Thu
Read 8 tweets
28 Jul
[Thread] 1. Are the 5.6 mil #Pfizer doses the US gov is donating to SA in addition to the Pfizer doses we've already procured ? YES (confirmed by @healthza)
2. How many #Pfizer doses has SA received up until now (so doses we've bought/paid for)?
@healtza figures:

Pfizer (bilateral deal): 6, 606, 990
Pfizer via #COVAX: 1, 392, 300

TOTAL: 7, 999, 290
3. How many #JnJ doses has SA received so far (without #Sisonke's JnJ research doses)?

@healthza figures:
1, 553, 600
(1, 49 million doses will be at clinics next week — these are the doses released by Aspen to #JnJ on Monday)
Read 4 tweets
27 Jul
[Thread] 1. What % of SA adults have now been fully vaccinated + with which jab?

Fully vaccinated adults (people of 18+) = 6.1%
- 3.1% have been fully vaccinated with #JnJ (they had 1 shot)
- 3% have been fully vaccinated with #Pfizer (they had 2 shots)

(3.1% + 3% = 6.1%)
2. How are provinces doing with full vaccinations?
Limpopo (8.5%), KZN (7.5%) and the Eastern Cape (7.2%) are leading the way, proportion-wise.

But when it comes to numbers, Gauteng (549 421) and KZN (543 580) have the highest number of fully vaccinated adults.
3. How do you work out how many people have been fully vaccinated? @healthza has a dashboard: bit.ly/3y9JEJV

Total full vaccinations =
#JnJ shots (1, 242, 236, you need 1 shot) + #Pfizer 2nd shots (1, 194, 931, you need 2 shots) = 2, 437 167
Read 8 tweets
26 Jul
[Thread] 1. @aspenpharma is releasing 1.49 million #JnJ doses from its Gqeberha plant for use in SA today (Jul 26) — all these doses will be distributed to #VaccineRollOutSA sites. But when will they actually reach the sites?
2. Stravos Nicolaou from Aspen says this morning Aspen started to pack the 1.49 million #JnJ doses in special refrigerator containers which are temperature controlled. This is a delicate process and takes a while.
3. The pallets of #JnJ jabs will today be loaded into trucks and handed over to JnJ. Tomorrow, the jabs will be flown to OR Tambo airport, from where the vaccines will be transported to a warehouse in Midrand.
Read 12 tweets
24 Jul
[Thread] 1. NEWS about #JnJ DELIVERIES:
1. SA will receive a consignment of 1.4 million #JnJ doses this coming week (confirmed by @healthza)
2. The doses will be rolled out at #VaccineRollOutSA sites from the week of Aug 2
2. What are we doing with our current #JnJ doses?
1. Initially, we only used them for essential workers, e.g. teachers
2. But the doses expire on Aug 11, and we now know more JnJ stock is coming, so @healthza has moved some doses to sites for use in the general roll-out.
3. What will happen to essential worker programmes?
@healthza will complete the current programmes as soon as possible and then move onto to prioritisation based on age only (because essential worker programmes require time-consuming admin which causes delays)
Read 4 tweets
23 Jul
[Thread] Glenda Gray, @MRCza:
1. The only way to bring the #COVID19 pandemic under control, is to vaccinate a large % of SA
2. Everyone needs to be vaccinated, not just 20%/30% of the population
3. Only 1.1% of people in low income countries have received one #CovidVaccine dose
2. Glenda Gray:
1. The benefits of vaccines far outweigh the occurrence of side effects
2. Severe side effects, such as rare/unique types of blood clots associated with #JnJ and heart inflammation associated with #Pfizer are very uncommon
3. Glenda Gray: How rare is rare?
1. For #JnJ, rare blood clots = 3 cases for every mil doses among adults
2. For JnJ, Guillain-Barre syndrome = 7.8 cases for every million doses among adults

* What is Guilain-Barre syndrome? Find out here: mayocl.in/3wZWqJV
Read 13 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(