The idea of #ZeroCovid as a bridge to vaccination made sense in many ways
For countries that managed it, it undoubtedly saved thousands of lives
Whether UK could realistically have ever achieved it, I don't know
In the vaccine era however, #ZeroCovid sadly makes no sense
1/
For countries that managed it, it undoubtedly saved thousands of lives
Whether UK could realistically have ever achieved it, I don't know
In the vaccine era however, #ZeroCovid sadly makes no sense
1/
Eradication of SARS-CoV-2 (no more left on the planet) is impossible, for many reasons
We know there are massive animal reservoirs of the virus
It is here to stay forever, whether we like it or not
aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom…
2/
We know there are massive animal reservoirs of the virus
It is here to stay forever, whether we like it or not
aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom…
2/
Putting aside that even achieving elimination (no more left in your country) once you have reached high levels of disease is near impossible (see @TAH_Sci blog)
personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/thomas.h…
The costs of even trying to achieve this for somewhere like the UK would be astronomical
3/
personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/thomas.h…
The costs of even trying to achieve this for somewhere like the UK would be astronomical
3/
But even if we did - then what? The virus is literally everywhere
LMICs will be trying to catch up with vaccination for years
We've seen even now countries like Aus with high restrictive controls (now utilising military) are struggling to keep it out
4/
LMICs will be trying to catch up with vaccination for years
We've seen even now countries like Aus with high restrictive controls (now utilising military) are struggling to keep it out
4/
There is no "end game" to zero covid, because ultimately, there is no zero covid. Restrictions continues indefinitely.
The only alternative to chasing this dream is facing reality, which is commonly referred to as "living with the virus". What does that mean?
5/
The only alternative to chasing this dream is facing reality, which is commonly referred to as "living with the virus". What does that mean?
5/
It means once you have a massive amount of your population vaccinated (most importantly older adults), you accept transmission will occur, but with substantially reduced levels of morbidity or mortality
You stop caring about "cases", and just about the harm they result in
6/
You stop caring about "cases", and just about the harm they result in
6/
#COVID19 essentially blends into the background risks we accept from other infectious diseases
We already "live with" Flu, RSV, HMPV etc, and vaccination should reduce the morbidity and mortality of #COVID19 to be commensurate to these other risks
7/
We already "live with" Flu, RSV, HMPV etc, and vaccination should reduce the morbidity and mortality of #COVID19 to be commensurate to these other risks
7/
It doesn't mean giving up. It doesn't mean not caring. It doesn't mean not taking #COVID19 seriously
It means reducing #COVID19 to a threat level which means highly invasive and disruptive methods of suppressing it are no longer worth-while
That's what vaccines do
8/end
It means reducing #COVID19 to a threat level which means highly invasive and disruptive methods of suppressing it are no longer worth-while
That's what vaccines do
8/end
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