Results of the study show that there is likely little difference between the two, and testing results in less absence
If there is a difference (there is a range of uncertainty), it is very small, and unlikely important
Obviously there was not a huge difference = equipoise
3/
The other issue was around consent, and whether other people in the school who aren't directly involved should consent too
First, this is completely impractical. If one person in family of a pupil in a school of 1000 says no, there is no study
This means it's impossible
4/
Second, this is not a new thing in studies of infectious diseases
It is recognised studies which could effect people outside of the direct study population need to be done, and risks:benefits must be carefully considered
That is what the ethics board are for!
5/
For a fabulous read on the ethics of the study and it's importance, read this article which is a response to these challenges, including, astonishingly, input from actual ethics experts (always a good idea if publishing a letter about ethics...)
Some seems to be some confusion on why it's better to coincide easing of restrictions with schools closing for summer
If schools are not drivers of community transmission, why does it matter?
Don't worry, it's quite simple! Let me explain...
1/
Firstly, closing schools does not just stop transmission in school
When schools are closed, adults have to stay home, change their plans etc to look after children
This appears to be a pretty major source of reduction in R associated with school closures in general
2/
For example, modelling frequently shows closing Primary schools to reduce R by a greater degree than closing Secondary schools, despite more transmission occurring in Secondary age children
This is likely because closing primary schools forces more parents to remain home
3/
It's important we are all cognisant of the impact of highly emotive and fear based messaging around #COVID19
It can create deep and lasting damage, and is often counter productive
This is especially the case when it comes to children
1/
It is great to use facts to and establish risk and to inform people (although for kids this is almost universally reassuring when used in the right context)
But to deliberately stoke fear and anger is not healthy, and will not end well
None of this is new to public health
2/
There is a long history here with HIV in particular
Potentially creating lasting fear and stigma around sexual relationships
Are we creating the same around social experiences? Around our children attending school?
The study uses PHE modelling data on infection rates, as case data over the year is unreliable (we tested only people who were admitted to hospital during the first wave)
Through this, they estimate just short of 500,000 infections
This is a massive underestimate
2/
We can get a better estimate of total infections by measuring seroprevalence - who has positive antibodies
By July last year, 4% of children were positive - that is already nearly 500,000 BEFORE the second wave
Many people believe children are more likely to have false negative results to:
- antibodies tests, due to them having mild illness
- PCR tests, due to difficulty sampling
Turns out, that's almost never the case
1/
First, antibody tests
Most serology tests used in studies test for antibodies against the Spike protein (we call these S IgG)
This nice Australian study, found no difference in rates of children seroconverting to S IgG compared to adults
Waiting for data before frightening kids, parents and the general public about variants, children and schools is important. They deserve this.
It has not been well practiced across the board - and given todays @ONS data, it is particularly disappointing
1/
Many will remember (feels like a lifetime ago) a lot of concern about the Alpha variant (prev known as B1.1.7) being very transmissible or more severe in children, disproportionate to its effects in adults
As people much smarter than me have said, the issue of vaccinating children against #COVID19 is a tricky one
I urge caution if you think it is straightforward
A quick look at recent developments and decisions from around the world to put this into context
1/7
A quick recap of main considerations:
-Children's risk from #COVID19 is extremely low
-Vaccines are very safe but do have some rare adverse effects
-Vulnerable people in other countries need vaccinating, and supplies are limited
-Younger children are different from teens
2/7
First to Germany 🇩🇪
Following EMA approval of Pfizer for 12 - 15yo, their vaccine advisory committee is recommending the jab only for those with existing comorbidities putting them at higher risk