🧵
Are trials of daily contact testing vs quarantining in schools "unethical"

tldr:
No. They never were, and are obviously not only ethical, but desirable, now we have results of a study

1/
A main concern was regarding equipoise - meaning, was there a balance before a trial of which would be better?

There absolutely was, including in modelling from spi-m, and I outlined that thinking previously here

2/
Results of the study show that there is likely little difference between the two, and testing results in less absence

If there is a difference (there is a range of uncertainty), it is very small, and unlikely important

Obviously there was not a huge difference = equipoise

3/
The other issue was around consent, and whether other people in the school who aren't directly involved should consent too

First, this is completely impractical. If one person in family of a pupil in a school of 1000 says no, there is no study

This means it's impossible

4/
Second, this is not a new thing in studies of infectious diseases

It is recognised studies which could effect people outside of the direct study population need to be done, and risks:benefits must be carefully considered

That is what the ethics board are for!

5/
For a fabulous read on the ethics of the study and it's importance, read this article which is a response to these challenges, including, astonishingly, input from actual ethics experts (always a good idea if publishing a letter about ethics...)

6/end
blogs.bmj.com/bmj/2021/07/07…

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More from @apsmunro

13 Jul
Some seems to be some confusion on why it's better to coincide easing of restrictions with schools closing for summer

If schools are not drivers of community transmission, why does it matter?

Don't worry, it's quite simple! Let me explain...

1/
Firstly, closing schools does not just stop transmission in school

When schools are closed, adults have to stay home, change their plans etc to look after children

This appears to be a pretty major source of reduction in R associated with school closures in general

2/
For example, modelling frequently shows closing Primary schools to reduce R by a greater degree than closing Secondary schools, despite more transmission occurring in Secondary age children

This is likely because closing primary schools forces more parents to remain home

3/
Read 8 tweets
12 Jul
It's important we are all cognisant of the impact of highly emotive and fear based messaging around #COVID19

It can create deep and lasting damage, and is often counter productive

This is especially the case when it comes to children

1/
It is great to use facts to and establish risk and to inform people (although for kids this is almost universally reassuring when used in the right context)

But to deliberately stoke fear and anger is not healthy, and will not end well

None of this is new to public health

2/
There is a long history here with HIV in particular

Potentially creating lasting fear and stigma around sexual relationships

Are we creating the same around social experiences? Around our children attending school?

How are we communicating?

3/

journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1037/10…
Read 8 tweets
10 Jul
Already people are misunderstanding the new paper showing extremely low risk of children from #COVID19

The paper reports both the population risk to children, AND the infection risk

It also massively *overestimates* the infection risk to children

1/
researchsquare.com/article/rs-689…
The study uses PHE modelling data on infection rates, as case data over the year is unreliable (we tested only people who were admitted to hospital during the first wave)

Through this, they estimate just short of 500,000 infections

This is a massive underestimate

2/
We can get a better estimate of total infections by measuring seroprevalence - who has positive antibodies

By July last year, 4% of children were positive - that is already nearly 500,000 BEFORE the second wave

3/
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Read 5 tweets
1 Jul
A quick 🧵on testing kids for #SARSCoV2

Many people believe children are more likely to have false negative results to:
- antibodies tests, due to them having mild illness
- PCR tests, due to difficulty sampling

Turns out, that's almost never the case

1/
First, antibody tests

Most serology tests used in studies test for antibodies against the Spike protein (we call these S IgG)

This nice Australian study, found no difference in rates of children seroconverting to S IgG compared to adults

2/
wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/27…
In fact, not only that - but this study shows younger children actually have HIGHER S IgG levels than adults!

Their super immune systems make a bangin' response

Good work kiddos

3/
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Read 9 tweets
25 Jun
A very calm thread🧵

Waiting for data before frightening kids, parents and the general public about variants, children and schools is important. They deserve this.

It has not been well practiced across the board - and given todays @ONS data, it is particularly disappointing

1/ Image
Many will remember (feels like a lifetime ago) a lot of concern about the Alpha variant (prev known as B1.1.7) being very transmissible or more severe in children, disproportionate to its effects in adults

As it turns out, that was not the case

2/
When schools were about to open in March, some people were very clear this would be a catastrophe

This led to a lot of anxiety among children, parents and teachers

Fortunately, it was not a catastrophe

In fact, it was completely fine

3/
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati… Image
Read 9 tweets
11 Jun
As people much smarter than me have said, the issue of vaccinating children against #COVID19 is a tricky one

I urge caution if you think it is straightforward

A quick look at recent developments and decisions from around the world to put this into context

1/7
A quick recap of main considerations:

-Children's risk from #COVID19 is extremely low
-Vaccines are very safe but do have some rare adverse effects
-Vulnerable people in other countries need vaccinating, and supplies are limited
-Younger children are different from teens

2/7
First to Germany 🇩🇪

Following EMA approval of Pfizer for 12 - 15yo, their vaccine advisory committee is recommending the jab only for those with existing comorbidities putting them at higher risk

3/7
reuters.com/article/instan…
Read 9 tweets

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