Incredible review on prolonged symptoms after #COVID19 from SAGE and the ONS

Worth reading in full, but here is a quick summary 🧵

Fortunately some reassuring stuff included in here, especially for kids!

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

1/
Firstly, admission that estimates of prevalence are massively uncertain (rage from 2.3% at 12w to >37% at 12w ?!)

Big issues here with vague definitions, method of asking questions, lack of control groups etc

Treat these estimates with extreme caution

2/
Risk factors pretty consistent, and appear to be:
- Increasing age
- Female
- Caucasion
- Obesity
- Asthma
- Poor pre-infection physical/mental health

People more likely to catch COVID-19 unsurprisingly more likely to have persistent symptoms (e.g. Health/Social care)

4/
What this means however is that otherwise healthy, young children have the lowest risk of having prolonged symptoms after #COVID19

So good news for the kiddos!

5/
This is reflected in the review on children specifically

They conclude that whist prolonged symptoms after #COVID19 do exist in children, they appear uncommon (no different to control groups in some studies)

6/
More good news next

Double vaccination halves the risk of prolonged symptoms after #COVID19 (as well as substantially reducing risk of getting infected)

Heavens to Betsy I love vaccines 😍💉

7/
Finally, some more evidence that #COVID19 is not that different to other respiratory infections

Risks of serious complications in other organ systems are significantly higher after hospitalisation with covid, but not compared to hospitalisation for other pneumonias

8/
So, prolonged symptoms are a serious problem, but fortunately seems much less significant for children

Also seems more in keeping with prolonged symptoms after other respiratory infections than previously feared

Most importantly - vaccines taking the sting out of it's tail

9/

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More from @apsmunro

30 Jul
The idea of #ZeroCovid as a bridge to vaccination made sense in many ways

For countries that managed it, it undoubtedly saved thousands of lives

Whether UK could realistically have ever achieved it, I don't know

In the vaccine era however, #ZeroCovid sadly makes no sense

1/
Eradication of SARS-CoV-2 (no more left on the planet) is impossible, for many reasons

We know there are massive animal reservoirs of the virus

It is here to stay forever, whether we like it or not

aphis.usda.gov/aphis/newsroom…

2/
Putting aside that even achieving elimination (no more left in your country) once you have reached high levels of disease is near impossible (see @TAH_Sci blog)

personalpages.manchester.ac.uk/staff/thomas.h…

The costs of even trying to achieve this for somewhere like the UK would be astronomical

3/
Read 8 tweets
29 Jul
Amazing study of school transmission from Spain 🇪🇸

Shows a clear age dependant transmission gradient - the older the children, the more transmission

Lowest rates occurred in unmasked pre-school children

Overall R*=0.4 in schools

Let's take a look!

1/
journals.lww.com/pidj/Abstract/…
This study used data from the Catalan school surveillance system

All contacts within school bubbles are tested following a positive index case

Linked cases determined by onset within 10d of index

They matched this data against the wider health surveillance system data

2/
Mitigations included masks from age 6 upwards, school bubbles, and increased ventilation

They found data matched well between school and wider health surveillance

This is a massive study of roughly 15,000 index cases within schools

Let's take a look at the results!

3/
Read 9 tweets
23 Jul
🧵
A couple of things people I think people have misunderstood about the school DCT study - lets clarify them!

First, test sensitivity of "only 53%"

Does this mean the test is rubbish?

Well actually, it's irrelevant!

1/
There is a BIG difference between a study of test performance, and real world test implementation

Good tests can be harmful in the real world, bad tests can end up being useful

For this study, we don't care about performance...

2/
This study measured secondary cases compared to quarantine - the outcome we actually care about is people getting infected

There is no noticeable difference here. It could be both are equally terrible! the important thing is there is not a big difference

3/
Read 6 tweets
23 Jul
🧵
Are trials of daily contact testing vs quarantining in schools "unethical"

tldr:
No. They never were, and are obviously not only ethical, but desirable, now we have results of a study

1/
A main concern was regarding equipoise - meaning, was there a balance before a trial of which would be better?

There absolutely was, including in modelling from spi-m, and I outlined that thinking previously here

2/
Results of the study show that there is likely little difference between the two, and testing results in less absence

If there is a difference (there is a range of uncertainty), it is very small, and unlikely important

Obviously there was not a huge difference = equipoise

3/
Read 6 tweets
23 Jul
This is BRILLIANT news!

A randomised trial of daily testing of school contacts of COVID-19 cases found it was just as good (or maybe better) at preventing transmission than sending kids home

It kept kids safe AND in school

This is why we do research ❤️

bbc.co.uk/news/health-57…
There is so much to talk about with this study I will be banging on about it all day

Massive congratulations to the team who put this together

This is evidence which can inform policy all over the world - so proud of the UK leading the way on evidence based policy here
Just in case you come across any strange claims of the study being unethical...

Read 4 tweets
13 Jul
Some seems to be some confusion on why it's better to coincide easing of restrictions with schools closing for summer

If schools are not drivers of community transmission, why does it matter?

Don't worry, it's quite simple! Let me explain...

1/
Firstly, closing schools does not just stop transmission in school

When schools are closed, adults have to stay home, change their plans etc to look after children

This appears to be a pretty major source of reduction in R associated with school closures in general

2/
For example, modelling frequently shows closing Primary schools to reduce R by a greater degree than closing Secondary schools, despite more transmission occurring in Secondary age children

This is likely because closing primary schools forces more parents to remain home

3/
Read 8 tweets

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