Firstly, admission that estimates of prevalence are massively uncertain (rage from 2.3% at 12w to >37% at 12w ?!)
Big issues here with vague definitions, method of asking questions, lack of control groups etc
Treat these estimates with extreme caution
2/
Risk factors pretty consistent, and appear to be:
- Increasing age
- Female
- Caucasion
- Obesity
- Asthma
- Poor pre-infection physical/mental health
People more likely to catch COVID-19 unsurprisingly more likely to have persistent symptoms (e.g. Health/Social care)
4/
What this means however is that otherwise healthy, young children have the lowest risk of having prolonged symptoms after #COVID19
So good news for the kiddos!
5/
This is reflected in the review on children specifically
They conclude that whist prolonged symptoms after #COVID19 do exist in children, they appear uncommon (no different to control groups in some studies)
6/
More good news next
Double vaccination halves the risk of prolonged symptoms after #COVID19 (as well as substantially reducing risk of getting infected)
Heavens to Betsy I love vaccines 😍💉
7/
Finally, some more evidence that #COVID19 is not that different to other respiratory infections
Risks of serious complications in other organ systems are significantly higher after hospitalisation with covid, but not compared to hospitalisation for other pneumonias
8/
So, prolonged symptoms are a serious problem, but fortunately seems much less significant for children
Also seems more in keeping with prolonged symptoms after other respiratory infections than previously feared
Most importantly - vaccines taking the sting out of it's tail
9/
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Putting aside that even achieving elimination (no more left in your country) once you have reached high levels of disease is near impossible (see @TAH_Sci blog)
A randomised trial of daily testing of school contacts of COVID-19 cases found it was just as good (or maybe better) at preventing transmission than sending kids home
Some seems to be some confusion on why it's better to coincide easing of restrictions with schools closing for summer
If schools are not drivers of community transmission, why does it matter?
Don't worry, it's quite simple! Let me explain...
1/
Firstly, closing schools does not just stop transmission in school
When schools are closed, adults have to stay home, change their plans etc to look after children
This appears to be a pretty major source of reduction in R associated with school closures in general
2/
For example, modelling frequently shows closing Primary schools to reduce R by a greater degree than closing Secondary schools, despite more transmission occurring in Secondary age children
This is likely because closing primary schools forces more parents to remain home
3/