Without looking it up,
What is Rt in Arkansas right now?
What is Rt in Arkansas right now?
Rt is actually 1.2 (0.98-1.5). It is taking 12 days (4 generations) to double
here's some math
If Rt (aka Reff) was 5, it would mean that it would go up 5*5*5*5 = 625 TIMES in 12 days, not 2x
epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/su…
here's some math
If Rt (aka Reff) was 5, it would mean that it would go up 5*5*5*5 = 625 TIMES in 12 days, not 2x
epiforecasts.io/covid/posts/su…
3/ Now, we aren't living in an R0 world. Even though it may feel like it sometimes
People are vaccinated (despite breakthrough infections)
People are infected (despite reinfection risk)
People have changed behaviors
But "Delta variant is as transmissible as Chicken Pox"(R0~9)??
People are vaccinated (despite breakthrough infections)
People are infected (despite reinfection risk)
People have changed behaviors
But "Delta variant is as transmissible as Chicken Pox"(R0~9)??
4/ Let me blunt.
I think that's nonsense.
Delta is more infectious. Maybe it's 3.5 as initially estimated. Maybe it also has a shorter incubation period. Maybe it's as high as 5. That's bad enough.
it's not 9.
I think that's nonsense.
Delta is more infectious. Maybe it's 3.5 as initially estimated. Maybe it also has a shorter incubation period. Maybe it's as high as 5. That's bad enough.
it's not 9.
5/ The reason we are in another surge has as much to do with our shift in behaviors as it does in some "contagious as chickenpox" boogie man.
We snapped back too fast, when there were still not enough people vaccinated.
You know what tells me that?
RSV
We snapped back too fast, when there were still not enough people vaccinated.
You know what tells me that?
RSV
6/ Last year, we saw a near complete suppression of respiratory viruses, including influenza and Respiratory Syncitial Virus (RSV).
But RSV is now back, off season, with a vengeance.
Took off, starting in April.
This isn't because there was a different covid variant
But RSV is now back, off season, with a vengeance.
Took off, starting in April.
This isn't because there was a different covid variant
7/ So what's my takeaway from all this?
*Let's not be &^*ing fatalistic. Exponential growth at Rt 1.2 is a small nudge away from exponential decline with Rt <1.
That can be vaccinations, or behavior change, or by default, waiting for infections to get us there.
*Let's not be &^*ing fatalistic. Exponential growth at Rt 1.2 is a small nudge away from exponential decline with Rt <1.
That can be vaccinations, or behavior change, or by default, waiting for infections to get us there.
8/ If part of the upsurge is due to Delta having shorter incubation period and faster generation times, then that could mean an even smaller R0, and correspondingly quicker reversal of the surge, as we saw in the UK.
https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1421524863454437384?s=20
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