1/ What percent of vaccinated people who get infected with covid will have long-term symptoms?
I don't know, but I highly doubt that it's 19%.
Here's why I say that, and what the *right* study design would be for answering that question.
I don't know, but I highly doubt that it's 19%.
Here's why I say that, and what the *right* study design would be for answering that question.
https://twitter.com/Bob_Wachter/status/1420490110680715265
2/ when I was an Epidemic Intelligence Service Officer at the CDC, I investigated lots of outbreaks, and every one would have a symptom checklist
A surprisingly high number of people with a diagnosed infection will say YES to a variety of symptoms
Fatigue?
Headache?
Fogginess?
A surprisingly high number of people with a diagnosed infection will say YES to a variety of symptoms
Fatigue?
Headache?
Fogginess?
3/ many of these reported complaints would have absolutely nothing to do with their infection.
But recall bias is super powerful, and respondents often feel like they're supposed to say "yes". So they do.
But recall bias is super powerful, and respondents often feel like they're supposed to say "yes". So they do.
4/ if 30% of the world will get COVID, do we think that 20% or more of them (one out of every 15 people alive today) are going to have long term sequelae?
Are we seeing an epidemic of brain fogginess? Will SAT scores decline?
This study doesn't convince me.
What would?
Are we seeing an epidemic of brain fogginess? Will SAT scores decline?
This study doesn't convince me.
What would?
5/ the right study design?
take a random sample of people who do NOT have laboratory diagnosed history of covid (remember, we probably have 3-5 infections for every diagnosed case)
Ask Qs 1st.
Then do serology test.
The diff in sx b/w serology + vs - is attributable to covid
take a random sample of people who do NOT have laboratory diagnosed history of covid (remember, we probably have 3-5 infections for every diagnosed case)
Ask Qs 1st.
Then do serology test.
The diff in sx b/w serology + vs - is attributable to covid
6/ this is not a difficult study to do.
I continue to be baffled that we don't have an ongoing effort to identify "what's the question" for each phase of this pandemic, and dedicate targeted field epidemiology to answering them quickly and well.
I continue to be baffled that we don't have an ongoing effort to identify "what's the question" for each phase of this pandemic, and dedicate targeted field epidemiology to answering them quickly and well.
https://twitter.com/Farzad_MD/status/1381195649123823619?s=19
7/ TY @djc795
"Each symptom was present in at least 35% of the students within the last seven days before the survey. However, there was no statistical difference comparing the reported symptoms between seropositive students and seronegative students"
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
"Each symptom was present in at least 35% of the students within the last seven days before the survey. However, there was no statistical difference comparing the reported symptoms between seropositive students and seronegative students"
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
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