Thread by @althecat

The UK’s Baroness Arminka Helic (⁦@arminkahelic⁩) is correct in identifying the level danger in the Tigray conflict theatre but she remains blind to the causes of escalation, and the role of Western actors in contributing to this crisis. politico.eu/article/ethiop…

She maintains a narrative which holds @AbiyAhmedAli responsible for the conflict.

“The military operation in Tigray is no longer being presented as just a police operation, but as a whole-nation effort to eliminate a mortal threat — a threat defined on the basis of ethnicity.”

This observation is made absent an acknowledgement of the gravity of the threat facing Ethiopia from the TPLF - a former ruling party whose history of military actions is long and deep, containing all the hallmarks of this current conflict, rape, massacre, famine as a weapon.

Baroness Helic’s argument focuses on statements made by Abiy Ahmed in the immediate aftermath of a renewed offensive by the TPLF into Afar and Amhara. The words used were unfortunate. But perhaps understandable in their context.

This passage is the heart of Helic’s argument.

It requires unpacking as there is a lot that is here and a lot that is missing. Including the context of her statements, namely a UK Parliamentary deliberation on the law related to this that Baroness Helic was presumably engaged in. (see… Earlier thread below)

https://twitter.com/althecat/status/1421566742007009281

This paragraph raises several pieces of context which relates to this context. The assertions here are that:

1. The AU isn’t doing its job.
2. They are naive to think @AbiyAhmedAli is a peace maker not genocidal.

In this paragraph @arminkahelic asserts the justification for intervention. “Normal relations” with Ethiopia are “not possible”. So much so that economic sanctions against Ethiopia are justified.

And here she backs that up again. Suggesting the UK should if necessary follow the US in sanctioning Ethiopia, which for a developing nation during a covid crisis is a serious threat.

And the justification of all this is genocide prevention. Which is indeed a serious issue.

All well and good. However there are in what the Baroness has omitted from her account. Specifically wrt to.

>> [UK] “should seek to forge a common position behind them with the United States and the European Union, in order to help the different warring parties toward peace.”

This is exactly right. The UK US and EU, the “Western powers” should indeed have a common position which supports peace.

But this is not what they have done. And at this point in this dangerous conflict their actions have spoken for them.

What the “Western powers” and most Western media, and a chorus of Western commentators have actually done is remain silent about the TPLF’s belligerence, and failed in unison to support the efforts of Ethiopia to via a unilateral ceasefire announced on June 28th.

The TPLF meanwhile have:
- rejected the ceasefire
- claimed military victory
- publicly taunted Ethiopia claiming they have US and EU backing.
- demanded the seige be lifted.
- recruited child soldiers.
- invaded Ethiopia on three fronts, including the main aid route.

During this period the US, UK, EU and to a lesser extent the UN have either remained silent or actively amplified these false narratives by also:
- calling for the seige to be lifted
- demanding access to conflict areas
- blaming Ethiopia for the humanitarian crisis.

Through doing so they have:
- hardened the resolve of Ethiopias Govt.
- United Ethiopians in outrage over being abandoned by their allies
- exacerbated the dangerous ethnic tensions in Ethiopia that @arminkahelic is justifiably concerned about causing even greater loss of life.

Western powers convened a round table in Europe during the G7 visit of @joebiden - hosted by @nimaelbagir with both @PowerUSAID and @USAmbUN in attendance & absent Ethiopian representation ~ which effectively held Ethiopia solely responsible for the humanitarian crisis in Tigray.

This version of the round table meeting has even been stamped and distributed by the TPLF

Official version is here >> ec.europa.eu/echo/content/u…

And ever things have steadily deteriorated. Both in Tigray and on the diplomatic front.

Media amplifications for the TPLF narrative has been consistent. But three examples stand out, from @CNN and @nytimes.
- CNN @nimaelbagir - May 13 edition.cnn.com/2021/05/12/afr…
- NYT @declanwalsh - July 11 google.fr/amp/s/www.nyti…
- NYT Declan Walsh - July 29 google.fr/amp/s/www.nyti…

Tigray appears to have become a journalism award hunting ground during this conflict, frequented by fly in fly out journalists doing gotcha journalism. In @nimaelbagir’s case, as her report shows she did get access to where she wanted to go. But in May she was walking into a war.

But the report rests on the premise she was obstructed. When she wasn’t. Given there was active conflict underway, access complications are far from surprising.

@DeclanWalsh’s first report, focused on an “ENDF has been defeated”, angle, which is the the TPLF narrative.

This too was gotcha journalism, contradicting the GoE’s official explanation for its unilateral ceasefire which was announced 2 weeks before his article went to print.

The photos with his story however revealed a big scoop he hadn’t noticed. The use of child soldiers.

Which is a war crime.

His 2nd story three days ago was the first story published by the @nytimes since. His angle was continued Ethiopian obstruction of humanitarian aid, but he completely failed to mention the TPLF invasion of Ethiopia on three fronts.

So in summary we have a full court western institutional attack against observed reality going on here. From both diplomatic and media institutions, the objectives of which are unclear.

There is a consistent pattern of diplomatic demands of and accusations against the Government of Ethiopia, accompanied by ignoring and/or underplaying of the belligerent lethal actions of the TPLF which are obvious to all.

And now on the eve of a visit of a White House genocide expert to Ethiopia to make additional demands, whilst Ethiopia is under attack (with TPLF posting videos of their attacks) a UK genocide Baroness is outlining a rationale for an illegal intervention into Ethiopia.

Meanwhile on the ground inside Ethiopia there is widespread confusion and fear as to the extent of the threat they fact. Constant TPLF social media and broadcast misinformation.

And as indicated earlier in this thread there is a party to this conflict with a long history of genocidal conflict, and using famine as weapon of war, and that is the TPLF.

And now this evening US Time we have a new media report, based on thin sourcing of bodies being found in the Tekeze river from the @AP and @washingtonpost. washingtonpost.com/gdpr-consent/?…

Two quick observations:
1. The timing of the publication of this report appears designed to coincide with @PowerUSAID’s visit and refers to this.

2. There is a war on in Tigray. There are reports of mass casualties on the Tigray side of the conflict being incurred among child soldiers with little to no training being sent into battle against trained forces in Afar and Amhara province.

Make that three points.

3. The Tekeze river is huge and is In massive flood due to this being the height of the big rainy season.

This latest atrocity reporting from the @AP - which has been publishing an endless series of such reports for the entire duration of this war - once again seeks, absent any evidence, to insinuate Ethiopian responsibility for this horror.

In Ethiopia, Washington and London the fog of war is very thick tonight. Not just because accurate information is hard to come by (because there is a war underway) - but because media and decision-makers are trying to defend their indefensible errors in judgment.

We are watching in real time an active dismantling of the truth, one which is doing irreparable damage to the relationship between Africa’s second largest nation and the heart of Western power.

/ENDS

@threadreaderapp unroll

P.S. at around 4am EAT (East Africa), 2am CEST, 8pm U.S. EST (I.E. prime time) Samantha power tweeted about the bodies in the river story.

https://twitter.com/PowerUSAID/status/1422340300807213057

And at exactly the same time this thread was posted by one of the TPLF’s propaganda team.

It seems they have an witness to this being a specific Amhara atrocity.

https://twitter.com/GebremeskelGeb/status/1422352442105245700