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Alastair Thompson Profile picture
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31 Jul, 12 tweets, 7 min read
#Woldia seems to be the new flash point in the Ethiopia vs TPLF conflict. There are multiple, confusing and disturbing stories on this hashtag.

IMO there is sufficient substance to the weight of reports to consider this a serious crisis.
#Woldia #Weldiya #Woldiya is inside Ethiopia on the road south from Mekelle to Addis Ababa. This front has seen fighting now for several days. ImageImage
In the West there are rumours of significant military action in #welkaite #Wolkait, possibly a major defeat of TPLF forces seeking to take back what they say is Western Tigray.

What has happened there is unclear but as in #Woldiya it looks like it was a TPLF setback/defeat.
Follow @NeaminZeleke for information on what #Ethiopian Govt. aligned sources are claiming is happening.
For their part TPLF claims to be winning everywhere. Though this thread from last yesterday has no pictures to back up the claims.
The @CrisisGroup has published an update on the situation from @wdavison10 which provides a helpful and fairly complete round up of the big picture.

crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-af…
However as the battle continues to rage, the actual military position remains very unclear for now as reports on both sides suggest there have been significant military engagements in #welkaite #woldiya and #afar in the past 3 days.
Conclusion in @CrisisGroup’s report on are controversial, especially with respect to #westtigray / #Welkaite and will definitely receive push back on the Ethiopia side.

The call for increased IC engagement with Ethiopia is helpful, but IC pressure on TPLF is needed even more. ImageImage
It seems possible this report was prepared before yesterday’s developments. In particular the @StateDeptSpox tweets calling for an immediate ceasefire without conditions.

A chorus of international statements along these lines would I think be helpful. Image
THREADFIX….
A potential wild card in all of this is Eritrea, but this tweet from Reda is the only reference to this I have seen. Image
An Eritrean invasion of Tigray from the north would be a near nuclear option. But the reminder to the TPLF that Ethiopia is not completely isolated, reinforced by the reports of the reappearance of UAVs in Afar is important when trying to understand the strategic balance.

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More from @althecat

Alastair Thompson Profile picture
2 Aug
The UK’s Baroness Arminka Helic (⁦@arminkahelic⁩) is correct in identifying the level danger in the Tigray conflict theatre but she remains blind to the causes of escalation, and the role of Western actors in contributing to this crisis. politico.eu/article/ethiop…
She maintains a narrative which holds @AbiyAhmedAli responsible for the conflict.

“The military operation in Tigray is no longer being presented as just a police operation, but as a whole-nation effort to eliminate a mortal threat — a threat defined on the basis of ethnicity.”
This observation is made absent an acknowledgement of the gravity of the threat facing Ethiopia from the TPLF - a former ruling party whose history of military actions is long and deep, containing all the hallmarks of this current conflict, rape, massacre, famine as a weapon.
Read 6 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
31 Jul
Has anyone heard of this organisation “responsibility to protect” which has a speaker in this?

Another appallingly one-sided and narrow report on this unfolding catastrophe from @CBSNews @PamelaFalk
It seems to be this. globalr2p.org

Named after a “global political commitment” agree under the auspices of the United Nations.
They have issued an “Atrocity Alert” recently which mentioned Eritrean refugees in Tigray, which talks about Eritrea in very disparaging terms . But there is nothing on their website about this.

They don’t seem to know that the concerns about refugees relate to TPLF treatment. ImageImageImage
Read 15 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
30 Jul
Very interesting context here to @StateDeptSpox statement regarding need for “negotiated ceasefire”.

This could have been called for at end of June when the Govt. of Ethiopia announced a unilateral ceasefire, but it wasn’t, in the meantime incalculable damage has been done.
Here are Reda’s tweets. In chronological order the softening of position started 2 days ago.

It’s amusing that these can be seen as conciliatory. And for Reda they genuinely can. Militarily the positioning of Eritrean forces appears to be playing an important role here. ImageImageImage
The latest restatement of preconditions for negotiations (which are worth reading if only for their WTAF value) makes one wonder whether the U.S. back channel efforts here have really been successful yet. We shall soon see. ImageImage
Read 7 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
28 Jul
This thread is about Typhoon #INFA, a storm the likes of which the world has never seen before. Enduring, unpredictable, astonishingly wet, massive, slow moving, and never alone.

And 13 days after designation as a storm, #INFA is far from finished in its journey of destruction
My coverage of #INFA began on 14th July after it had formed into a visible and formidable storm, albeit not yet a Typhoon. But by then weather models already showed it was a significant threat.

Not simply as a storm but as a broader weather pattern.
The area in which the storm was expected to form showed up in the models earlier. Here we see it on the 10th of July in the GFS MLSP forecast. But it was probably there even earlier.
Read 37 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
28 Jul
Notwithstanding #Olympics2021 or perhaps because of it, in relation to the clear breach of the solemn tradition of the Olympics Truce, the TPLF invasion of Ethiopia ought to be taken before the UNSC immediately.
This is a matter that has already been discussed by the UNSC as a humanitarian crisis. It is now rapidly escalating out of control as a security crisis. International news cover of the #Olympics2021 is being used by the aggressor, TPLF for its military offensive.
A UN @WFP humanitarian convoy has been attacked, and Ethiopia's unilateral ceasefire, entered into at the request of the IC, (UN, G7, EU and US), has been ignored. Ethiopian people, in isolated communities, face consequential threats from the TPLF on multiple fronts.
Read 4 tweets
Alastair Thompson Profile picture
28 Jul
It is conspicuous how public TPLF are being about their alleged conquests en-route to Gonder and Addis, now Debark and Weldiya. All this is clearly intended to cast fear among the people of Ethiopia.

But it could also be a diversionary tactic.
Similarly the latest disturbance in the Somali region, while technically not the TPLF, the timing of the occupation of the road and railway line by youths (foreshadowed by TPLF social media comms @RabdiAnalyst, seems designed to be an additional distraction.
With 3 armed columns moving deeper into Amhara/Ethiopia on different fronts TPLF forces are split up. There is as yet no record of the strength of these columns but absent intelligence as to their strength dealing with them will be stretching Ethiopia's defensive capacity also.
Read 8 tweets

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