@PIMCO writes: "In addition, so long as policymakers are committed to balancing their budgets in the long run, helicopter money and modern monetary theory (MMT) are not inflationary per se."
Some quick comments...
It is correct to note that MMT is not inflationary. It is a monetary theory and understanding it does not drive up the rate of inflation just as understanding the theory of gravity does not make the apple fall down.
It would not be correct to say that central banks or the Treasury is *applying* MMT. The US monetary system has not been changed. It's just that leading politicians are framing deficits and debts in a different way. c-span.org/video/?512625-…
The rate of inflation does not depend on "balancing the budget" today or in the future. You can huge public deficits and deflation, as 2020 has shown (Eurozone). MMT understands that inflation is not driven by quantities of money, however measured, but...
... it is driven by developments in wages and productivity. If wage growth is weak, you cannot have high rates of inflation. If prices outgrow wages, firms will not sell what they produce. The stockpiles force them to reduce prices.
Since government cannot run out of money (which the central bank provides), the wages of public workers are the anchor for the inflation rate. The data supports this view (see below). Changes in wages paid by government are mirrored by the changes in the price level (inflation).
This has nothing to do with "balancing the budget". The public sector usually had deficits, sometimes surpluses (late 90s) – that had no effect on the rate of inflation. If anything, higher public deficits – caused by lower tax revenues – go together with low inflation rates.
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"Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers said he didn’t expect the recent fall in bond yields although he maintained his view that the economy is overheating."
The US government has to "pre-finance" its spending. Political rules force it to issue and sell t-bonds before it spends. This usually does not matter much in terms of effect on yields because the US government sells t-bonds and receives deposits at the @federalreserve ...
... only to then spend those deposits, which means that the banks receive them back (as reserves). The overall level of reserves (=clearing balances) in the banking system stays the same when government has spent. It does not, however, when the US government sells many t-bonds...
There is only one way a modern government spends. The central bank credits the central bank account of the bank of the receiving party, which then creates bank deposits for the receiving parts.
Government spending is always a monetary phenomenon.
A government when it taxes or sell bonds is taking back reserves (central bank deposits) that it has spent or lent into existence in the past.
@NZZ bestätigt #MMT: "Zumindest in einem Punkt stimmt das Konzept: Ein Staat, der sich in seiner eigenen Währung verschulden kann, wird theoretisch nie zahlungsunfähig. Denn er kann seine Schulden [..] immer [..] begleichen." nzz.ch/nzz-live-veran…
Der Rest ist dann wieder falsch:
"Doch diese Rechnung geht nur nominal auf, nicht aber real, also bei Berücksichtigung der Kaufkraft. Denn bei einer Monetisierung der Staatsschuld würde das Geld immer weniger wert."
The @FinancialTimes is still wrong about fiscal policy. It apologizes for the austerity-craziness in the 2010s, but it misses the point that governments cannot run out of their own money. The discussion ends there.
While in the short-run national governments are able to do whatever is necessary, there is the risk of a quick return to pre-crisis austerity policies that would lead to yet another lost .. decade. Hence, .. policy makers should .. bring forward the following reform proposals: