Yesterday I got 2 types of replies to a tweet about the crypto provision in the bipartisan bill: (1) don’t stop our tax evasion and (2) sincere misunderstandings of the leg language & what Treasury would do with it. This 🧵is for the 2nd group of people.
The leg text does 3 things:

1. Make explicit that broker reporting rules apply to crypto exchanges writ large. There is ambiguity about whether those rules apply to all entities (JCT appears to think they don’t), many don’t report now & would litigate heavily if Treasury tried.
For honest taxpayers these reporting requirements are a big help. They’re like the 1099s you get from your broker that tell you your capital gains and dividends for the year, it is virtually impossible to do your taxes without them.
Without information reporting the evidence is that compliance is generally around 50% in the best of areas and could be considerably lower in the crypto world.
2. Require broker-to-broker reporting of the basis of the basis of your asset (how much you paid for it). Congress did this for regular assets in 2008 and it has been a big simplification for honest taxpayers, meaning you don’t need to rifle through shoeboxes to find your basis.
For crypto this needs to cover all the stages. If you buy a coin on Coinbase for $50, transfer it to a wallet, and then to another exchange where you sell it for $500. The new exchange needs to know that you bought it for $50. If you pay taxes you need to know that too.
3. Right now if you buy a Tesla or anything else with cash they need to report it to the IRS. This would extend that same requirement to buying with crypto.
A lot of the sincere misunderstanding stems from a few sources:

1. The belief that coins are more like cash than like stocks. Cash doesn’t have capital gains and losses that need to be tracked. Stocks do. Crypto is more like the later.
2. The belief Treasury has this authority already. There is ambiguity and debate about this, I’m not a lawyer, but it appears as if JCT thinks there are limits to their authority—thus the large score. Regardless, clarifying would be helpful.
3. The belief this would lead to onerous information reporting requirements having nothing to do with the above, like on miners. This isn’t how Treasury operates, they don’t try to squeeze blood from stones. They just wouldn’t do this.
The amendments being considered would gut the provision—limiting who it applies to (and with holes in the process it becomes much less effective) and delaying the implementation. It would be a real shame if lobbying on behalf of tax evasion succeeded.
In sum, the crypto provisions are thoughtful and important. The intense industry lobbying has been a thing to behold because it is by entities that benefit from the additional demand they get from tax evaders. For law abiding crypto holders this is actually a simplification.

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More from @jasonfurman

4 Aug
The shortcomings of nominal GDP targeting are evidence from looking at @DavidBeckworth's estimate that the nominal GDP gap was closed in Q2.

Under his forward-looking NGDP target rates should be well above neutral--maybe around 4% or more right now.

mercatus.org/publications/m…
Note in many versions of NGDP targeting (including the one proposed by @DavidBeckworth) you have to make up for past gaps. So would need very high interest rate for many years until NGDP got back onto its pre-pandemic path.
NGDP targeting has a lot of appeal relative to inflation targeting: (1) both behave similarly when facing a demand shock; (2) NGDP targeting does not require tightening against a supply shock; and (3) arguably NGDP targeting has better messaging than targeting higher inflation.
Read 6 tweets
29 Jul
The economy grew at a 6.5% annual rate in Q2. That means:

--Real GDP is now above it's pre-pandemic level (but still below its trend)

--Real GDP growth so far in 2021 is substantially outpacing the pre-ARP forecasts (stay tuned for a graphic on this)
Looking at the numbers:

--Extraordinary growth in consumer spending (+11.8%) and business fixed investment (+8.0%). But housing, inventory reductions and reduced net exports subtracted 2pp from the growth rate.
Another Q where demand was very strong: Americans were purchasing a lot of stuff (businesses, consumers, govt). But some of that stuff came out of inventories and imports.

Real Final Sales to Domestic Purchasers up at a 2.1% annual rate since 2019-Q4, same as the pace pre-COVID.
Read 4 tweets
21 Jul
I don't expect delta to have a large impact on the macroeconomic trajectory for four reasons, but this is all uncertain so should still be vigilant/nervous:

1. We have not seen impacts on mobility so far in European countries affected earlier or in the US.
2. People who are unvaccinated may also be the least likely to make large behavioral changes in the face of resurgent COVID (although hopefully many will make the most important change--getting vaccinated).
3. Ditto on states & localities: the ones who most need social distancing rules are the low vac states that are least likely to implement those rules.

(Moreover, mask rules alone not enough to do much, would need to close restaurants, bars, etc. to move the economic needle.)
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul
Earlier this year most people were forecasting ~2% inflation for the entire year. So far we already have 3.6% inflation (or 7.3%) at an annual rate.

Reupping a thread last month, this massive miss could mean you revise your inflation forecast up or down.

At this point you should almost certainly revise *down* your forecast for inflation for the remainder of 2021. New and used cars have contributed 1pp to the 3.6% inflation so far this year. Could easily subtract something like that over the next six months.
Inflation in the first half of 2021 has been much less bad than it looks when you take out the crazy volatile stuff. Inflation in the second half of 2021 may be substantially higher than the headline numbers.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul
Have been really enjoying the new @PolicyImpacts website from @nhendren82 & @bsprungkeyser, a great source for evidence-based benefit-cost analysis of govt spending (including tax expenditures) on education, health, nutrition, disability and much more.

policyimpacts.org
The site builds on their research on the Marginal Value of Public Funds (MVPF) which compares *long-run* benefits to long-run net costs, importantly factoring in any savings from higher taxes on higher wages, savings on healthcare, etc. academic.oup.com/qje/article/13…
Policymakers working to prioritize can take advantage of their library of one hundred or so interventions all organized in a reasonably comparable way.

(Caveat: as always, make sure results are robust/applicable, don't run out & make policy on a single paper if you can help it.)
Read 6 tweets
2 Jul
My analysis of the jobs numbers, with Willie Powell. Short version: the pace of job growth picked up as signs continue to point to a tight labor market. A 🧵follows.
piie.com/blogs/realtime…
850,000 was a great jobs number but we're still 9m jobs short of trend. We should be able to narrow that gap relatively rapidly for several more months in a row (assuming no dramatic worsening of the virus situation).
The unemployment rate remains elevated. And the "realistic" unemployment rate, which includes the 2.1m people who have left the labor force above and beyond what one would have expected.
Read 7 tweets

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