THREAD/

$FVRR got creamed yesterday -- ⬇️24% in ONE DAY!

Why? Company lowered '21 revenue guidance from -

+59-63%YOY growth announced at end of Q1

to

+48-52%YOY growth announced yesterday

This deceleration shaved off 24% of Fiverr's market cap!
Here is a company which despite very tough comps (after last year's COVID related boost to its business), announced that its revenue will grow ~50% this year and its stock got smoked!

Agreed; its valuation was elevated but this 83% gross margin business is now...
...valued at ~21 X year-end EV/S.

Yesterday, Fiverr announced its active buyers grew by 43%YOY in Q2 '21 to 4 million and spend per buyer increased 23%YOY.

So, apart from a mild slowdown in its business (expected after last year's bump), all other metrics didn't indicate...
...anything seriously wrong with Fiverr quite just yet.

Prior to COVID, this business was growing by ~40-45% per annum and it is quite impressive that this year (off a much bigger base), management is expecting 48-52% revenue growth.

I'm not one to hang around, but at this...
...stage, can't really see any major problems with Fiverr.

All this may change during subsequent ERs and the business might really show signs of deterioration, but for now I'm staying long $FVRR

If cracks widen in the future, I'll be out in a flash.

END.

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More from @saxena_puru

5 Aug
Some FinTwit accounts keep claiming I'm a fraud and a con artist...

According to them, I didn't really own a stake in my first investment management firm (I was merely an employee) and that my trades/performance are all made up.

I run this account for free, don't charge...
....anybody a cent, don't do any paid marketing, don't even accept any offers to run funds, share my research for FREE and don't run any paid service....yet, I'm accused of being a fraud!

My $1m wager to get my portfolio CAGR verified by CPA is still available...no takers yet.
If anyone has any doubts whatsoever about my career history, you can look up my name on Hong Kong Securities & Futures Commission website (public register). Here is the link -

Hope this is helpful.

sfc.hk/en/
Read 9 tweets
2 Aug
In today's day and age, thanks to globalisation and progress in the developing world, creation of mandatory pensions + investment plans, the investor pool has grown tremendously and there is a constant inflow of investment dollars.

Add to this mix ZIRP + QE and one can see...
...why valuations have deviated from the historic norm.

Finally, never before in the history of capitalism have so many asset-light, high margin businesses (with recurring or sticky revenues) dominated globally and grown so rapidly for so long.

30-40 years ago, the best...
...businesses used to grow revenue by 20-25% pa their capex was usually high and most had to build factories and produce goods.

Today, dozens of globally dominant companies are growing by 50-100+% pa, they are asset light and their marginal cost is approaching zero....
Read 4 tweets
2 Aug
Founder-led, capital light, non-cyclical high growth businesses with big TAMs, long runways, recurring revenues/sticky customers and high margins are almost always "overvalued".

Why should such companies be cheap?

Even during COVID-crash, the best names were richly valued.
Not investing because of "overvaluation" has been a big mistake for ~20 years! All the big winners looked overvalued + stayed rich for years.

Even during the GFC crash-low, the highest quality compounders were "overvalued".

In the long run, business quality > valuation.
Valuation matters obviously - the lower the valuation at the time of 'entry', the higher the subsequent return.

However, the most promising businesses are hardly ever 'undervalued' and the best time to buy into them is during stock market sell-offs, when they get marked down.
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30 Jul
1) Portfolio update Jul-end -

$ADYEY $AFTPY $AGC $CRWD $DLO $DOCU $FVRR $GLBE $LSPD $MELI $MTTR $OKTA $PATH $PLTR $QELL $ROKU $SE $SHOP $SNAP $SNOW $TWLO $ZI

Return since 1 Sept '16 -

Portfolio +757.91% (54.78%pa)
$ACWI +74.84% (12.03%pa)
$SPX +102.50% (15.42%pa)
2) YTD return -

Portfolio +32.17%
$ACWI +12.91%
$SPX +17.02%

Biggest positions -

1) $GLBE 2) $SE 3) $MELI 4) $SNOW 5) $ROKU

Contd....
Commentary -

July was a busy month as I objectively reviewed all my holdings and realised that I wasn't happy with all of them.

After witnessing the disaster show in Chinese stocks, I also realised how important governance is and that certain countries are inherently riskier..
Read 20 tweets
28 Jul
Judging by some of the comments on here, many would rather sit through a gut wrenching decline (40-50% drawdown in their portfolio) and pray than put up with a few whipsaws when the market reverses higher soon after putting on a hedge.

Strange logic...beats me but hey-ho!
EVERY single stock market crash or major decline starts off as a 'normal pullback'. No way to differentiate which one(s) will turn out to be a hair-curler.

This is why best to take every signal and defend capital during every downtrend. Whipsaws are NORMAL and can't be avoided.
Whipsaws do NOT cause drawdowns in a portfolio, they simply cause one to miss out on some upside (portfolio stays more or less flat until hedges are removed).

When large declines come along (and they do), big profits from hedging tend to cover the whipsaw losses.
Read 5 tweets
22 Jul
After big p/b, I've re-invested in $PATH

Leader in Robotics Process Automation
80%+ gross margin
Founder-led (he owns > 20% of shares)
Impressive revenue growth
TAM --> $60b+
145% $ based net retention rate
UiPath's customers seem to like them....a lot -

I'm long $PATH
Gartner's Magic Quadrant (July 2020) -

UiPath consistent leader in RPA
Read 4 tweets

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