Tim Cook, 2016:

"While we believe the FBI’s intentions are good, it would be wrong for the government to force us to build a backdoor into our products."

Tim Cook, 2021:

"We're building a backdoor into our products."
Of course catching bad guys is laudable.

But Apple is creating a scanning tool on E2E encrypted messaging.

This is just the start.

"These efforts will evolve and expand over time," Apple writes.

Where will they draw the line?
"Siri and Search will also intervene when users try to search for CSAM-related topics."

Again, laudable.

But will Apple one day report you to the FBI if it doesn't like your search queries?

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More from @MarceloPLima

16 Jun
The Ovarian Lottery and the Internet

1997 Berkshire AGM, Buffett talks about the John Rawls idea of the ovarian lottery:

In the lottery, you can't control if you'll be born man or woman, black or white, abled or disabled, etc.

In that lottery...
"You would try to figure out a system that is going to produce an abundant amount of goods, and where that abundance is going to increase at a rapid rate during your lifetime, and your children and your grandchildren, so they can live better than you do, in aggregate...
...and their grandchildren can live better. [...] I mean, Charlie — when we were born the odds were over 30-to-1 against being born in the United States, you know? Just winning that portion of the lottery, enormous plus. We wouldn’t be worth a damn in Afghanistan."
Read 10 tweets
15 Jun
“Even North Korea isn’t this nuts.”
What happened in the 15 years following 2000 that all of American academia was infected with wokeness?

Did all liberal arts academics get simultaneously brainwashed?

What was the process through which this happened?
Read 4 tweets
20 May
$LMND's LTV/CAC is trending in the right direction. This chart shows 1.4x LTV/CAC in the MRQ. The second series shows the *growth* in IFP over the LTM per dollar of ad spend in the same period (~70% of S&M as a proxy):
Here are the inputs. The company released annual dollar retention data with earnings. 81% in Q1 2021, of which 7 points were upsells, so let's say 74% retention. That means 26% yearly churn, or an LTV of 3.8 years. Gross margins are about 20% but will see upward pressure...
...from two sources: first, life insurance, which flows thru at 100% since it's not an owned policy, just commission. Second, a reduction in reinsurance over time as the company proves out its underwriting and keeps more of the economics. I'm using 25%. Note that...
Read 7 tweets
13 May
For anyone trying to understand Lemonade's story, here's what I recommend. Start with the slim book on the founding of the company ($LMND):
amazon.com/Making-Lemonad…
Watch the IPO video:
vimeo.com/437029189
Read the blog entries by @shai_wininger (I wish there was a way to filter these). For example, this one:
lemonade.com/blog/the-sixth…
Read 7 tweets
13 May
Here's a narrative on the bear case for $LMND. I'm sharing it with the permission of the anonymous analyst in my DMs. The main questions include: can LMND really achieve the 17% operating margin target by @tebixby, which would mean lower expense ratios than the giants? 🧵
Here is what this analyst wrote:
----------------------------------
So let's be clear and distinguish between expense ratio (that's admin, marketing stuff) and the loss ratio (that's the actual insurance loss)

and lets talk specifically about auto.
So in auto the expense ratio leader is Geico.

Progressive is trying to catch up.

Roughly speaking Geico's fixed expenses are about 10% of premiums and then there is about 6%-8% of customer acquisition/growth spend.

For a total of 16%-18% of premiums.
Read 17 tweets
12 May
This is a must-listen interview by the inimitable @tferriss with the co-founder of Ethereum (Vitalik) and Naval:

pca.st/episode/045a46…
What’s great about it is @VitalikButerin goes all-out wonky and @naval does the annotations, so to speak.

They also discuss a topic that’s underdiscussed: life extension.
It’s frustrating that more billionaires don’t trade billions for more life extension research so maybe Vitalik and Naval can help pave the way.

Why not create a new country with no FDA where this research can happen unfettered?
Read 4 tweets

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