The IPCC news this morning should surprise no one. I am scared, and angry. But I refuse to give up. You can't give up either. We're all in this together.

But first, we've got to be honest about the facts, and clear-eyed about how and why have failed thus far. Thread:
1/ In my adult lifetime, we have gone from global political consensuses to address planet-level risks (the Montreal protocol / ozone depletion) to politicization and obfuscation of climate change to hoping the next election will change things to "oops it's too late."
2/ There is only one uncertainty. And it's on us. washingtonpost.com/climate-enviro…
3/ But none of this is surprising. Scientists have been telling us for decades that if we have any chance of avoiding irreversible planetary harm we have to keep warming below 1.5C. We are basically there. nytimes.com/2021/08/09/cli…
4/ What that means is that the wildfires, droughts, heatwaves, floods, climate-induced refugee crises and mass-extinctions we've seen over the last few years are our new normal, and getting worse.
5/ We've already seen this lead to political destabilization in North Africa (desertification leading to crop failures) and Central America (hurricanes leading to refugee crises). It's only a matter of time before we see similar dynamics in the US.
6/ So here's the question: what do you do when your back is up against the wall? Do you quit? Or do you find some reservoir of strength you didn't know you had to do what is necessary? These are the times that try men's souls.
7/ That is the question facing the world in Glasgow in November. When I was in Madrid at COP-25, a European parliamentarian said to me "bad things happen when the US doesn't lead." So what are we going to do to put ourselves in a position to lead before then?
8/ That question matters because our track-record on climate is, frankly, embarrassing. The world is not watching our lips, because they've changed their tune too often. They're watching our feet. We need the US team to get to Glasgow with a lot more than words.
9/ But if we're going to deliver on actions, we need to be brutally honest about how we got to this point and show a commitment to fixing the root causes. The time for baffling half measures is way, way past. Stick a fork in it, it's done.
10/ First, acknowledge the politics. The elected @GOP is useless. Half deny science and the other half have spent 30 years ducking the question. They are your high school friend who partied too hard and now can't get a job. Feel bad for them, but don't hire them.
11/ But don't give the Dems a pass. Too many view climate change as a political rather than a policy problem. Proclamations of intent with no serious work to explain how to get there may give voters the impression you care. But that ain't enough. Not any more.
12/ Those politics matter because any prioritization of bipartisanship is incompatible with prioritizing that which is scientifically necessary. To pretend otherwise is delusional and, frankly, embarrassing.
13/ So we can choose: kill the filibuster, or kill the climate. That is not a hard choice. #EndTheFilibuster. Yesterday.
14/ Dark money in politics is a huge part of the problem. If you think the science is unsettled, you can trace your evidence back to dark money that boosted scientific BS to sow doubt. #ExxonKnew, dammit. We've got to #EndCitizensUnited. and pass #HR1
15/ The social media companies have an important role here too. They are consistently spreading misinformation and lies out of a selfish, anti-human quest to maximize engagement. It's time for them to step the &$#@ up. secure.avaaz.org/campaign/en/fa…
16/ @POTUS needs to nominate a climate-focused 5th FERC commissioner ASAP. #HotFERCSummer is about a serious issue. As a politically independent agency that oversees much of our energy infrastructure, they have degrees of freedom Congress lacks. They need to be fully staffed.
17/ We need to start scoring the climate impact of our legislation BEFORE we vote on major bills, just as we do for fiscal impacts. We can't measure our progress if we don't keep score.
18/ We need to stop subsidizing the fossil fuel sector. The fact that they can't compete on their economic merits against cleaner, cheaper alternatives gives us a powerful economic lever to drive change. Embrace markets, not socialist corporate welfare. imf.org/en/Publication…
19/ Our financial regulators need to treat climate change as a systemic risk, mandate disclosures of contributions to and risk exposures from a warming planet. Give markets the tool to better allocate capital and they will. NGFS is a start. ngfs.net/en
20/ Finally, our infrastructure bill needs to make a massive commitment to energy efficiency, clean electrification and changing policy tools that will bring private capital forward. Giving every American access to cheaper, cleaner energy is the key to a just transition.
21/ Those changes, by the way are completely incompatible with the Byrd rule because they are not limited to federal budgetary spending. Ergo, any climate plan that is paced by the Senate Parliamentarian is Not A Serious Plan.
22/ Is all that ambitious? Yes. Is it necessary to turn this ship around? Not quite. But it's the kind of start that shows that we understand the problem, are serious about moving forward and deserve to be in a leadership position in Glasgow. Now let's get it done. /fin

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More from @SeanCasten

30 Jul
I'm feeling sad about COVID today for reasons that have partial parallels to the HIV crisis in the 1980s. Thread on public health, intended primarily for the unvaccinated and the Trump-wing of the @GOP. Maybe futile, but hoping some data might save a few lives. Dive in:
1/ I grew up in the NYC suburbs. My first boss from my first high school job was a gay man who died of AIDS. I watched the rise of ActUp! and their political battles with Ed Koch and others to acknowledge the truth of what was happening
2/ What was clear then, and even more in hindsight is that the spread of the disease was made worse by political discomfort talking about risk factors for transmission.
Read 21 tweets
17 Jul
Re Facebook and vaccine hesitancy, this remains relevant.

Me: "If Jenny McCarthy were to put up a post saying 'don't get your kids vaccinated' would you take that down?"
Zuckerberg: "We probably would not."

facebook.com/RepSeanCasten/…
Z: "Our policy is not to ban people from posting things that are false"
Z: "Our policies against hate speech [by contrast] do lead to us taking down content completely."
Me: "Can you spread hate speech if you are an elected official?"
Z: "That depends on a bunch of specifics that I can't answer."
Read 5 tweets
13 Jul
So @PrattKap raises an interesting point here that relates to something I've been diving into lately. What is the value of the US balance sheet, and should we seek to maximize it? Want to (accounting) nerd out? Let's go. Thread:
1/ First, it bugs me whenever someone says "we should run the government like a business" and then says we have too many liabilities but can't quantify our assets. We own buildings, land, mineral reserves and a whole lot of other stuff, but don't quantify it. We should!
2/ And until we do, no one can make a credible argument that we have "too much" debt. Maybe we do - but you have to do the math before you can have an informed opinion. Which is to say I've been diving into that issue. #nerd
Read 17 tweets
30 Jun
Watch FERC. Today is the last official day for my friend @FERChatterjee. Which means that President Biden has the chance to appoint a new director to arguably the most important agency in the government when it comes to near-term CO2 reduction. Gonna be a #HotFERCSummer
1/ If we are going to electrify our transportation fleet, we need a lot of new transmission (several hundred billion $ worth, according to @JesseJenkins) and >1,000 GW of new generation.
2/ Those investments will lower our cost of energy and drop CO2 emissions. But our electric regulatory structure has never been fully market-based. Federal $ (e.g., infrastructure) can close some, but not all of that gap.
Read 4 tweets
26 Jun
OK, @NRCC. I'll bite. Let's talk about critical race theory. Buckle up and take notes. Thread:
1/ As a general matter, I don't engage with the @NRCC. They serve only to provoke and are run by people with the intellectual rigor and moral compass of an emotionally-stunted 12 year old.
2/ But this matters. They are talking about CRT not because they care about the substance. It's because they want to blow racist dog whistles at their base AND encourage parents to attack teachers. They think it will help them win elections and don't care about the cost.
Read 27 tweets
24 Jun
I continue to think LCOE is a lousy metric to understand the power sector. But when all-in costs for clean energy are lower than marginal costs for dirty energy, it's a big deal.
This is why I've been so focused on getting our financial regulators to start planning for the massive wealth transfers that are coming to our financial system. casten.house.gov/media/press-re…
The *physical* financial risks caused by climate change (property loss, crop failures, etc) are frightening but understandable. But in the near term, the *transition* risks may be bigger.
Read 9 tweets

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