1. With it being USDA August Crop Report week, good time to review Corn Belt weather during the last 40 days, the critical growing period for corn and very important for soybeans as well.
2. First a shoutout to the Midwest Climate Center for making these great maps available to the public. Precip in main part of Corn Belt was a mixed bag. Decent rule of thumb in my experience is that anything above 75% of norm is likely in decent to good shape. Image
3. IL good to very good on precip since July 1, except far north. IA not as good but still less than half of state in any real trouble. Have to get to northern half of MN to see super dry areas. Image
4. Here is deviation from avg temp for same period and area. Normal to below normal temps for all but far norther MN. This definitely had to help the dry areas. Not saying it is a savior in these areas, just that it could have been worse. Image
5. I keep talking about how good the IL crops look that I have seen. Good July precip and below average temps. Historically that is the key to really big crops. I think the IL corn yield could be record big under these conditions. And we just got more rain. Image
6. Now moving out to the far western reaches of the Corn Belt. What struck me was that SD was not as bad as I expected. ND was dry dry dry. Image
7. Here is the temp map. Not as good for SD as precip and really bad for ND, which got smoked this summer. Low condition ratings in ND make complete sense when you look at combination of temp and precip maps. Image
8. What does all this mean for corn and soybean yields? Looks pretty good to me east of the MS and average to poor west of the MS. Nets to something near trend for the US in my book.

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More from @ScottIrwinUI

11 Aug
1. Weekend Reading (Early Edition): With the August Crop Report from the USDA out tomorrow, thought there might be some interest on my most recent paper, "To batch or not to batch? The release of USDA crop reports." Published in Agricultural Economics onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…
2. My co-authors (Joshua Huang, Teresa Serra, and Phil Garcia) and I took a deep dive into the benefits and costs of implementing a batch auction around the release of USDA crop reports (and acreage and stocks). PDF is free for now at this link onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.111…
3. Some background. USDA was basically forced to move to "real-time" release of Crop Reports after the onset of electronic trading. No matter where the USDA set the release time a futures exchange could easily move trading hours to cover the release.
Read 12 tweets
22 Jun
1. Back on crop acres with new #FDD article this week. Tried to figure out what happened to the 14.4 million acres that left US crop production after 2014. farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2021/06/where-…
2. Here is my accounting of total US crop acreage. Notice that total was pretty stable from 1998-2014 around the average of 359.4 million acres. Then down down down through 2020. Total drop after 2014 of 14.4 million acres through 2020.
3. Started analysis with acres going into and out of CRP. Anything funny going on there. The answer is yes. Should be an inverse relationship between CRP and principal crop plus prevent plant acres. This held through 2014, then both declined. What gives?
Read 11 tweets
26 Feb
1. One more quick thread on the biodiesel hedging article. This one is directed to grad students and other researchers looking for interesting problems to dig into. I am asked more than you think, "How do you find interesting research topics?"
2. Well to start with, I am an applied economist. Very applied. To find interesting applied economic research problems I think you have to be engaged with the relevant industry and part of the ongoing conversation.
3. I used to do this by reading a lot of trade magazines but now I get pretty much a 24/7 flow of engagement on twitter. But there is a trick. I am interested in what people in the industry are saying and talking about, not necessarily what other academics are saying.
Read 8 tweets
26 Feb
1. Weekend Reading: Have not done one of these for awhile. This one is on a brand spanking new article coming out in Energy Economics "Biodiesel hedging under binding renewable fuel standard mandates." sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
2. Hopefully that link is in front of the paywall. I can never tell from publishers page. I really think this is a fun little article. My co-authors are my long-time partner in crime Phil Garcia and Jason Franken of Western Illinois.
3. The genesis for this article was from following trade conversation on biodiesel pricing and hedging. Always much discussion about the leading role of heating oil/diesel futures on biodiesel prices, and by implication, how one should hedge biodiesel.
Read 10 tweets
16 Oct 20
1. Weekend Reading: Just published in the AEPP (free access) with farmdoc colleagues "Coronavirus Impacts on Midwestern Row‐Crop Agriculture" onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…
2. Our main purpose in writing this paper was to show that the coronavirus pandemic simply added to the downward financial pressures on Corn Belt ag that have been building since 2014, when the long price boom ended.
3. This downward trend in returns is nicely summarized in this chart. The big soybean return in 2018 was MFP1. So any truly good news for crop farmers after 2013 was from gov't payments. Don't be put off by the x axis scale. Need to get that fixed.
Read 12 tweets
14 Oct 20
1. Very useful graphic @BrightonCap. Closest thing to hard data on COVID death rates. This measures the risk of getting COVID X risk of dying from COVID. The worst rate is 0.18% for NJ. Vast majority of states less than 0.1%, or less than 1 out of every 1,000 people.
@BrightonCap 2. I am not making this point to say anything one way or the other regarding COVID policy responses supported by people. Just interesting to me how different people react to this kind of risk but not others. So far, death risk for population as a whole is not very large.
@BrightonCap 3. Of course, this does not account for long-term health impacts to getting COVID, which are still very poorly understood. I know I don't want to take that risk if I can avoid it!
Read 4 tweets

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