This is what the IC want. And yet the IC remains muted, almost silent as 250 are killed in #AfarMassacre

@UNSG @StateDept @eu_eeas

A new democracy was born on summer solstice. But eight months earlier a group of malignant thugs with a long history of malignant thuggery....
... including many commanders of the armed forces who had sworn to be loyal to their lawful Govt. attacked their fellow soldiers in Ethiopia's National Defence Force stole heavy armaments and massacred an unknown number of their fellow soldiers.
The US Govt. initially condemned the rebellion, but changed their tune fairly quickly as it became clear that the ruthless thugs who they had supported for nearly three decades had not been quickly defeated as claimed.
Instead, disregarding the clear international order that holds the integrity of the national state at at its heart in the charter of the UN, they in chorus moved to a "both sides" narrative and called both sides to agree to a "ceasefire" demand.
As the horrific war wore on, media attended on the victims of the war and pointed the finger of blame at Ethiopia and the Nobel Peace Price winning interm PM of Ethiopia and his tarnished crown.
Ethiopia rallied around #ItsMyDam for months as this dragged out. Aid agencies complained that they did not have the unfettered access they needed to feed the people of Tigray, and accused the Govt of using famine as a weapon. Not the TPLF who had historically done just this.
Preparations continued for Ethiopia's first genuine contested election, which @AbiyAhmedAli held in spite of Ethiopia being at war, whilst now under attack from the EU which withdrew observer missions and hosted a media moderated diplomatic circus during @JoeBiden's G7 visit.
The election went ahead peacefully on Summer Solstice, under tight security due to the war. 40 million Ethiopians voted. Voxpops of voters broadcast by media observers found a people speaking with one voice, voting for peace.
But unbeknownst to as all, in Tigray the TPLF had already begun a new surprise military offensive against Ethiopia's Defence Forces, which were no doubt depleted in part due to provision of Security for the election.
A week later under continued diplomatic pressure, and facing setbacks in the renewed all out war, the Govt. of Ethiopia declared a unilateral ceasefire. To which the TPLF quickly responded with a two finger salute, and a chorus of experts and media called a military defeat.
The UNSC then held an emergency session which was the right thing to do, on July 3rd. And this was the after match de-briefing with the media. Please watch this....
This press conference will live on in the history of the UN.
And it not be recalled with pride. Neither in the media accounts of this period nor in the history of UN institutions and its members.
And the reason, is because of what happened next.
Silence.
The press conference is a helpful illustration for what follows as most of the questions addressed ceasefire pre-conditions demanded by the malignant thugs of the TPLF and communicated by @reda_getachew, their spokesman.
IC Silence followed. Specifically on the issue of the ceasefire. Which was always and remains the most important issue. It was asked for and it was granted. But it received no IC support and the malignant thugs of the TPLF took that as a greenlight to continue.
A @nytimes report on July 11th compounded the situation, describing and glorifying the great TPLF victory in its offensive during Ethiopia's first democratic election. This did however contain pictures and testimony confirming the role of child soldiers in the conflict.
The silence was not complete though.

IC calls were made for Ethiopia to lift its blockade, media reports daily demonised Ethiopia for not doing so, concerns and complaints from aid NGOs were aired, and commentators insisted Ethiopia relinquish Welkaite (Western Tigray).
From July 3rd to July 30th the @StateDept said almost nothing on the conflict which was resumed in the middle of the month with lethal incursions into Ethiopia beginning on July 16th into the Afar and soon after the Amhara regions.
Local reports and videos confirmed the presence and capture of child soldiers and one particulary and mercifully blurry video showed large numbers of dead children with their rifles after the charged on an armoured battalion.
As far as I am aware the EU said nothing during this period, ditto the UNSG.

Then finally on the eve of @PowerUSAID's visit on the 30th @StateDeptSpox issued a statement calling on the TPLF to agree to the ceasefire without preconditions.
But a few short days later this position was reversed, presumably by @PowerUSAID who was at the time stuck in Sudan pouring praise on the Sudanese and encouraging them to become a democracy and tweeting TPLF propaganda about an alleged #HumeraMassacre
Two few other notable things during this period.

July 9th - the UNSC discussed the filling of the #GERD dam, and correctly resolved that it wasn't their responsibility.

And July 19th - the 2nd dam filling was completed, to the great delight of Ethiopia
Unfortunately by then the renewed TPLF offensive had been underway for several days. And after a few moments of joy, Ethiopia returned to the question of what to do about the TPLF.

Rather than attacking the territory they said they wanted back the TPLF began by attacking Afar.
And when they did so on July 16th and 17th they attacked the route through which aid was being delivered.

And still the silence of the IC continued. Even when a WFP truck was ambushed.
The media reported, absent sourcing, that the truck had been attacked by the Afar and not by the TPLF. It appears that the source as the WFP who said the ambush was by peopled dressed as Afar, perhaps unaware that dressing up is a favourite TPLF war tactic.
And then the TPLF attacked Amhara region on two fronts - an offensive that as foretold by @reda_getachew on Twitter.

Offensives began on both the road to Gondar and the road to Addis. And these offensives are ongoing today.
The road to Gondar once it exits the mountains reaches Debark a university town. The road to Addis goes though a city called Weldiya which was yesterday under indiscriminate artillery fire.
The favoured tactic of the TPLF in its new large scale insurgent guerrilla configuration seems to be to send waves of child soldiers in front. In part because they have discovered that the ENDF do not want to slaughter children.
And this probably explains why the ENDF withdrew from Lalibela before it was taken, and possibly looted, by a band of marauding TPLF.
It appears that responsibility for doing or not doing anything about all of this on behalf of the UNSG, EU, UL and EU was assigned to @SamanthaJPower who was dispatched on what I think she thought as a humanitarian peace envoy into an active war zone on Jul 30th.
Her reputation preceded her and she delivered on it when on the morning of the penultimate day of her visit she tweeted an @AP report about bodies found in the Tekeze river. The so-called #HumeraMassacre, a dis-info plan which had been warned about in advance by the GoE.
As a result of this, and her reversal of the no-preconditions policy, she was delayed an additional day in Khartoum finally flying into Addis in the dead of night where she was met by the Ministers of Peace and Health.
And that was 4 days ago.

She gave a low key press conference in which she re-instated the no-preconditions call to the TPLF. Then departed, returning to the US to deliver a self-regarding IV to NPR (Readout) which continued to point all the blame for everything at Ethiopia.
The following day August 7th a school and food depot in Afar province was shelled by artillery fire killing 250 civilians including 170 children and destroying a large quantity of food aid and supplies.
This followed the news on Friday that city of Lalibela, a world heritage site containing magnificent churches hewn out of rock with the help of angels was taken without a fight by TPLF fighters who stole loot and killed people in the town.
Everyday in Ethiopia with the TPLF around brings a new fresh hell.

And still the silence continues.
Today the first international acknowledgment of the fact of Saturday's #AfarMassacre was released by @UNICEF. So that's a small mercy.
I won't offer conclusions from this sad and sorry tale beyond calling for the silence to end.

The terrorising of Ethiopia both by the TPLF, and the IC, its institutions, national leaders & media has to end, now.

This silence is a special kind of evil, 70th Gen. gaslighting.
This should read 107 civilians - a typo.
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More from @althecat

9 Aug
.@swilliamsjourno this is an interesting and evocative report, redolent in history. But it is also rather old and out of date now. A lot has happened since. Are you going to do an update?
The story has a strong focus on Eritrea and in that context this tweet which points to your sources will I think raise alarm bells among many.
Particularly the involvement of Tronvoll, Plaut and Rashid Abdi, who are all rabid TPLF supporters and who are engaged in a significant anti-Eritrean information effort that predates this conflict for some time .
Read 4 tweets
8 Aug
Today's rainfall/weather update for the #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follows.

The short version is that the peak of the rainy season may have passed, but there are signs of another Indian Monsoon surge coming in 10-12 days in long range forecasts.
Here is the long-range GFS model PWAT forecast for the Indian Monsoon. Towards the end it strengthens and we see high levels of moisture heading for the #HornOfAfrica.
Here is a big picture view of the greater region including all the areas that this weekly bulletin will cover.

A review of the past week showed that Sahel-Sahara rainfall has continued, as has rainfall in northern Sudan. The northerly rain is however not particularly heavy.
Read 36 tweets
8 Aug
A @youtube video thread:

In this thread I will post a bunch of relevant historical videos which relate to the #TigrayInsurgency.

This first one was posted Nov. 9th five days after the Tigray war began.

With the benefit of the passage of time @eliasamare's remarks are prophetic about what we have seen unfold over the past 10 months.

The history he recounts is well known. But is almost completely missing from mainstream media coverage of the story of this war.
@eliasamare's video has a clip of a passionate speech in the UK house of Commons from @GeorgeGalloway in 2008. Galloway's speech was prompted by a @Channel4News documentary "Somalia (2008) Dispatches - Warlords next door".

Here is part 1 (Age restricted)
Read 10 tweets
8 Aug
Interesting development regarding SAHAN's social media team leader @RAbdiAnalyst (the account is gone) his alternate account @RAbdiAnalyst_ is still here, albeit with a fraction of the reach.
Do we think the account was cancelled by Twitter? Or is this a tactical retreat from the information war?

There was a list of pretty hateful tweets circulated for a reporting campaign. If this was @Twitter.... good on them Twitter should not be used for war and hate promotion.
Aha... he's blogged about it. It's kind of rich that a paid propagandist who has engaged in hateful online behaviour in relation to a live war for months is complaining about online hate. eritreahub.org/for-rashid-abdi
Read 6 tweets
7 Aug
This thread contains the outlines of a massacre that didn't happen in Afar on 24th June, yet still resulted in numerous deaths in Djbouti today, just after #AfarMassacre

@aseb2aden tells the extraordinary story of Gadamaytu to a confused Western Journalist.
This is a sub-thread about the events on 24th June which you get to towards at the end. Its possibly easier to understand the story if you start above though.
And this thread from @QafarMedia covers the fatal shootings today in Djbouti which were the ultimate consequence of what happened at Gadamaytu on June 24th.
Read 5 tweets
6 Aug
The MFA statements appear to have been prepared and issued before news of this latest massacre emerged from what I can now see. The first statement was three hours ago and the latest one about Lalibela 2 hours ago.
This thread contains three statements concerning the re-evaluation of the unilateral ceasefire.
The final sentence in the first Statement.
“The GoE is being pushed to mobilise and deploy the entire defensive capability of the state it its humanitarian overtures for a peaceful resolution of the conflict remain unreciprocated.”
Read 4 tweets

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