A few weeks ago I tweeted about the rising cases due to #DeltaVariant. I was surprised by the number of people who replied saying essentially “they did this to themselves.”
A short 🧵about why we ought to look at this situation differently 1/
Seeing the #DeltaSurge among the un-vaccinated, I'm reminded of an adage I learned in my residency: “The trauma ICU is filled by man’s cruelty to man & the medical ICU by man’s cruelty to himself.”
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It’s true.
Without tobacco, alcohol, & opioids, there would be less COPD, cirrhosis, & endocarditis.
Without dietary indiscretions & "noncompliance”, we would not see fewer complications of DM or exacerbations of chronic illness.
But it's also not so simple.
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The last year has been marked by a periodic deja vu: a bizarre groundhog day where we seem to be making progress, COVID recedes from our ICUs, then a few months later a new wave hits.
If so much about the delta surge is familiar, why does this wave *feel* so different?
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I can think of three reasons:
1. This time around the suffering is almost completely *preventable*.
Even against the delta variant, vaccines remain highly effective at preventing hospitalization & death.
Unlike prior waves, over 95% of the current deaths are preventable.
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2. Unlike other diseases encountered in the MICU, preventing COVID morbidity & mortality is *easy*
What could be simpler than receiving a free vaccination?
Addiction - the root cause of most "self inflicted diseases" - is comparatively much harder to treat.
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3. The negative externalities around vaccine refusal are enormous.
Not only do the unvaccinated risk their own health, but they endanger the health of others in their community, and [importantly!] our society's "return to normalcy.”
This feels selfish!
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In the early waves of the pandemic, it was easy to see people as “victims” of the coronavirus, but as the pandemic wears on, this feels less true.
Today, as we round in the MICU it's easy to succumb to the trap of thinking "they did this to themselves"
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"They did it to themselves" thinking leads to burnout & an exodus of HCWs from medicine.
Of all the scarcities we face (ventilators, ECMO machines, ICU RNs), empathy fatigue is the one I fear most. 9/
Instead of "they did this to themselves" I like to frame the situation differently:
We need to remember that no one *chooses* to have COVID. Instead of seeing this wave as a choice, I see it as a consequence of a another deadly comorbidity: misinformation.
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We are dealing with a cognitive virus on top of the coronavirus.
Just as addiction is a disease that leads to other disease, so too is misinformation.
The *syndemic* of coronavirus and misinformation has lead to vast & unnecessary suffering.
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So what can we do about this?
First, lower the barriers to vaccination even further.
Every interaction with the healthcare system is an opportunity for someone to make a good decision.
They need only make a good decision once (or better yet twice, 21 days apart)
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Pharmacists should ask about vaccine status when filling prescriptions & offer immediate vaccination.
Patients admitted to the hospital for non-COVID reasons should be offered vaccination prior to discharge, as should their loved ones who are taking them home.
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Every family meeting is an opportunity to offer vaccination. Facing the reality of a sick unvaxxed loved one, many people re-evaluate their decisions
We usually focus just on our patient. We should use these quintessential teachable moments to offer help to their family
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The MICU is filled by self-inflicted cruelty, tragically more so today than before
But in confronting delta, we need to remember that the cure for self-inflicted cruelty isn’t more cruelty
If we view misinformation as an illness it’s easier to empathize with the afflicted
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You can read more in my Op-Ed for @medpagetoday. Thanks to @genevievefri for inviting me to write this piece.
Pre-print of the #COVIDSTEROID2 RCT comparing dexamethasone 6mg vs 12mg in hospitalized patients on high flow O2 or MV:
- no difference in survival or days free of MV with higher dose dex but…
- interesting “trend towards benefit” w/ higher dose dex
📄medrxiv.org/content/10.110… 1/
🔑 Question: we know from #RECOVERY that steroids are beneficial in severe COVID, but what’s the ideal dose?
#COVIDSTEROID2 was a large DB multi center RCT to answer this. It randomized patients on high flow O2 or MV to either 6mg or 12mg of dexamethasone for up to 10 days. 2/
The 1° endpoint was days alive free of lifesupport (MV, ECMO, RRT). 2° endpoints included 28 day mortality.
Based on prior studies, they powered for a 15% relative mortality reduction (ARR ~4.5%) combined w/ a 10% reduction in life support duration.
#ACTION RCT results just published @TheLancet: Another negative study of therapeutic #anticoagulantion (TA) in hospitalized people w/ COVID19:
- TA w/ rivaroxaban didn’t improve survival (or *any* endpoint) vs prophylaxis
- more bleeding with TA 1/ thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The AntiCoagulaTlon cOroNavirus (ACTION) trial was a pragmatic open label RCT at 31 hospitals in 🇧🇷.
It enrolled hospitalized patients with COVID19 & an elevated D-dimer & randomized to TA vs prophylactic anticoagulation (PA).
Aside: not sure how I feel about that acronym... 2/
The intervention was TA with either a DOAC (rivaroxaban) if stable or LMWH (enoxaparin 1mg/kg BID) if unstable vs standard of care prophylaxis (UFH or LMWH).
Crossovers were allowed (eg if someone in the PA developed VTE). They adjusted dosing for renal function.
Ivermectin proponents point to in vitro studies as proof of efficacy
One problem: the dose required in vitro (IC50) to inhibit #COVID is 30-90x higher than the plasma or tissue levels (Cmax) achieved with a standard 12mg IVM dose
A 🧵 explaining & debunking this myth
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First some definitions:
- Cmax is the maximum concentration achieved after a medication is given; it is usually measured in healthy people
- IC50 is the concentration of a drug necessary to inhibit a particular enzyme or process by 50%; it is measured in vitro.
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Since the pandemic began, many studies looked at repurposing FDA approved drugs to treat COVID
Literally dozens of candidate drugs have been found that inhibit viral replication in vitro
One of these candidates is ivermectin
But as we will see the devil is in the details... 3/
People are citing reports of declining #COVID cases or deaths after mass #ivermectin distribution.
This is the scientific equivalent of “the rain stopped after I bought an umbrella.”
A short thread about why these “studies” are NOT very compelling. 1/
As cases rise, schools & businesses close, people stay home, nursing homes restrict visitors, masks are mandated, etc
A few desperate governments worldwide distributed ivermectin too
In an uncontrolled situation, why should ivermectin get “credit” for reducing cases/deaths?
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This is a classic POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC ("after this therefore because of this") fallacy.
Ivermectin distribution is usually a last-ditch effort, like buying an umbrella as you are getting soaked.
But the natural history of pandemics is to peak, then decrease.
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A few years ago I wrote about the problem with vitamin C in sepsis.
It’s not that vitamin C is harmful (it probably isn’t) or that it’s ineffective (it almost certainly is) but that embracing pseudoscience undermines evidence based practice.