#ACTION RCT results just published @TheLancet: Another negative study of therapeutic #anticoagulantion (TA) in hospitalized people w/ COVID19:
- TA w/ rivaroxaban didn’t improve survival (or *any* endpoint) vs prophylaxis
- more bleeding with TA
1/
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
The AntiCoagulaTlon cOroNavirus (ACTION) trial was a pragmatic open label RCT at 31 hospitals in 🇧🇷.

It enrolled hospitalized patients with COVID19 & an elevated D-dimer & randomized to TA vs prophylactic anticoagulation (PA).

Aside: not sure how I feel about that acronym...
2/
The intervention was TA with either a DOAC (rivaroxaban) if stable or LMWH (enoxaparin 1mg/kg BID) if unstable vs standard of care prophylaxis (UFH or LMWH).

Crossovers were allowed (eg if someone in the PA developed VTE). They adjusted dosing for renal function.

3/
The 1° endpoint was a hierarchical composite of time to death, duration of hospitalization, & duration of supplemental oxygen use up to day 30.

I’m always a little weary of composite endpoints that combine pt centered (survival) & non-pt centered endpoints (# of days on O2).
4/
The groups were balanced & broadly representative of hospitalized COVID patients.

Most were stable (not in the ICU), on supplemental O2, w/o organ dysfunction. They don’t report APACHE or SOFA scores but overall not very sick at randomization. >80% received corticosteroids.
5/
The 1° outcome was no different w/ TA & PA. There were more deaths, longer hospitalizations, & longer duration of O2. Plus a trend towards increased mortality with TA.

Both stable & unstable pts appeared to do WORSE with TA.

In fact, almost every subgroup did worse with TA.
6/
Statistical Aside: for those unfamiliar with “win ratio” don’t feel bad it’s a new method!

Win ratio is a method comparing multiple outcomes where there is a hierarchy of which outcome is most important (e.g deaths > readmissions)

Great explanation 👉academic.oup.com/eurheartj/arti…
7/
Specifically, the ACTION study found that therapeutic anticoagulation with DOACs was associated with numerically greater mortality (11% vs 8%). This wasn’t quite significant but the increase in major bleeding events was.

Overall a big 🚩for therapeutic anticoagulation.
8/
What does this add to our knowledge about AC in COVID?
-TH doesn’t improve outcomes in ICU pts (#REMAP)
-intermediate dose anticoag doesn’t help in ICU pts (#INSPIRATION)
-effect of TH in non-ICU pts unclear. REMAP suggests small benefit. #ACTION suggests no benefit/maybe harm
9/
One criticism is that DOACs may be different than LMWH in some crucial respects.

Plausible. Though DOACs are equivalent or better in most cases (afib, VTE, cancer, etc)

Also the “severe” patients who were treated with LMWH instead of DOSC didn’t do any better in survival
10/
A recurring theme in COVID anticoag studies is that while many pts *develop* clots, few *die from* clots

Prophylactic dose is pretty effective. Therapeutic is more effective but still imperfect; we do see clots on TH occasionally

Crucially, preventing clots ≠ saving lives
11/
Clinical 🥡
-#ACTION found Therapeutic anticoagulation (TA) w/ rivaroxaban or LMWH is NOT associated w/ improved survival or other benefits in hospitalized pts w/ COVID19
-no role for empiric TA with DOACs & probably no role for empiric TA at all in COVID19; use ppx instead
12/12

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More from @nickmmark

24 May
Ivermectin proponents point to in vitro studies as proof of efficacy

One problem: the dose required in vitro (IC50) to inhibit #COVID is 30-90x higher than the plasma or tissue levels (Cmax) achieved with a standard 12mg IVM dose

A 🧵 explaining & debunking this myth
1/
First some definitions:
- Cmax is the maximum concentration achieved after a medication is given; it is usually measured in healthy people
- IC50 is the concentration of a drug necessary to inhibit a particular enzyme or process by 50%; it is measured in vitro.

2/
Since the pandemic began, many studies looked at repurposing FDA approved drugs to treat COVID

Literally dozens of candidate drugs have been found that inhibit viral replication in vitro

One of these candidates is ivermectin

But as we will see the devil is in the details...
3/ From https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.20.9997https://storage.googleapis.com/plos-corpus-prod/10.1371/jour
Read 12 tweets
14 May
People are citing reports of declining #COVID cases or deaths after mass #ivermectin distribution.
This is the scientific equivalent of “the rain stopped after I bought an umbrella.”
A short thread about why these “studies” are NOT very compelling.
1/
As cases rise, schools & businesses close, people stay home, nursing homes restrict visitors, masks are mandated, etc

A few desperate governments worldwide distributed ivermectin too

In an uncontrolled situation, why should ivermectin get “credit” for reducing cases/deaths?
2/
This is a classic POST HOC ERGO PROPTER HOC ("after this therefore because of this") fallacy.

Ivermectin distribution is usually a last-ditch effort, like buying an umbrella as you are getting soaked.

But the natural history of pandemics is to peak, then decrease.
3/
Read 8 tweets
8 May
A few years ago I wrote about the problem with vitamin C in sepsis.

It’s not that vitamin C is harmful (it probably isn’t) or that it’s ineffective (it almost certainly is) but that embracing pseudoscience undermines evidence based practice.

1/
pulmccm.org/critical-care-…
It took a half dozen high quality RCTs to refute one uncontrolled study of 47 people.


Most have given up on the “metabolic cure for sepsis” (with notable exceptions).

Why are “simple, cheap” therapies so alluring? and what can we learn about COVID?
2/
These pseudoscientific “miracle cures” exploit our desire to help our patients and appeal to several common cognitive biases and delusions.

🚩 Let’s run through some of the red flags of miracle cures:
3/
Read 16 tweets
19 Mar
#INSPIRATION RCT comparing intermediate vs standard dose DVT prophylaxis, just published @jama:
-no benefit to additional anticoag in ICU patients w/ #COVID19:no reduction in mortality, MV, LOS or any 2° endpoint
-time to rethink COVID #anticoagulation?
1/
bit.ly/3vCluqK ImageImageImageImage
INSPIRATION was a 10 site open-label RCT in 🇮🇷 comparing intermediate vs standard dose prophylaxis in ICU patients with PCR-confirmed #COVID19.

LMWH was the primary intervention (~40 mg vs 1mg/kg daily), dosed appropriately for weight; UFH was used if the GFR was too low.
2/
Overall the groups were balanced (total n=562) & were fairly representative of US ICU cohorts with COVID19.

The use of HFNC was very low (~3%) compared to in the US, which may reflect different practice patterns/availability.

Most patients (>90%) received corticosteroids
3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
12 Mar
Pre-print of the @remap_cap RCT of #anticoagulation for ICU patients w/ #COVID19 adds details but confirms what we learned from the press release:
- no improvement in survival or organ failure w/ therapeutic (TA) vs prophylactic anticoagulation (PA)
- medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
1/ ImageImageImage
This study is the amalgam of 3 large platform RCTs of TA in COVID19: @remap_cap @ACTIV4a & ATTACC.

Each trial was administered separately but as much as possible they harmonized the design so the results could be analyzed together. (a pragmatic way to enroll more pts faster)
2/ Image
There were some differences:
-REMAP enrolled suspected & confirmed infxn; the others only enrolled confirmed
-choice of anticoagulant varied
-most importantly, the definition of prophylaxis: ~1/2 the sites used standard low-dose heparin, the remainder used “intermediate dose”
3/ Image
Read 9 tweets
5 Mar
Following @remap_cap & #RECOVERY #Tocilizumab results, @NIHCOVIDTxGuide has updated guidelines:
-#Toci + #Dexamethasone now recommended for all ICU pts on IMV, NIPPV, or HFNC
-Toci + Dex recommended for non-ICU pts w/ rapidly increasing O2 needs & elevated inflammatory markers
1/
You can read the updated NIH COVID19 treatment guidelines here: covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/statement-on-t…

IMO, this change makes sense based on the published & pre-published data, which I discussed last month:
2/
There are some caveats:
-Toci must be combined with dexamethasone (not given alone; ? harm signal)
-It should be given early (w/i 3 days)
-Toci should NOT be given to people who are already immunosuppressed or who have “an uncontrolled” infxn (e.g. getting worse despite Abx)
3/
Read 5 tweets

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