Thread by @rathorekaran17

#Afghanistan timeline.
1. US had well in advance announced that it would be pulling out of AF and a specific timeline was given out.
2. Chinese PLA initiates intrusion in Ladakh sect in strength. Expectedly, IA responds in a similar manner to counter the intrusion.

3. Indian commitment of forces in Ladakh, draws away the reserves available in NC and also some fmns from the plains to counter PLA.
4. At this point Pak offers ceasefire along LOC and possibly non interference in J&K matters. India readily accepts the offer.

5. The stage is now set for pak supported Taliban intervention in AF in strength. Pak Eastern Front (LOC and IB) is secure from Indian interference and Pak army can now focus entirely on the AF front.

6. It was a mistake to have accepted ceasefire on LOC without pak commitment of non interference in AF. And if Pak did interfere then LOC could have been lit up nice and proper. We let their tail slip out of our hands.
7. This entire play was a coord move between pak n China.

8. In AF the ill trained Taliban can't do much without pak regulars being a part of the Taliban. And that is exactly what is happening on ground. The entire op is being strategised,planned and executed under the aegis of pak army.

9. I was in a clubhouse discussion the other day. A senior Retd army general remarked that we should not tickle the pakis on LOC lest they start tickling us in J&K. It is symptomatic of the psyche of numerous decision making senior hierarchy. Maintain status quo somehow

A similar status quoist approach is being followed in AF in my assessment. We need to break out of this box of non action. A Taliban victory in AF will be a strategic setback for us. As it is Taliban is aligned with China. Pak doesn't have the resources to support the Taliban.

The resources are coming in from China. In terms of weaponry, finance , logistic help etc. we would be naive to think otherwise. And the Taliban will be the new sword arm of China-pak nexus. A tailor made force with the benefit of deniability. What more can they want.

As we see the enemy sharpening his scimitars on the fire, let us shed our indolence and sense of hesitation and fear of the unknown. We need a more dynamic aggressive expeditionary policy in AF. Think out of the box!!!