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11 Aug, 8 tweets, 4 min read
NEW: Daily Kos Elections presents our guide to 2020s redistricting in all 50 states. We explained how each state's rules work, & these cartograms show which party—if any—is expected to control redistricting for Congress (left) & state legislatures (right) dailykos.com/stories/2021/8…
Republicans are set to draw 2-3 times as many congressional districts as Democrats following their dominance in 2020's elections, which itself was partly due to their previous gerrymanders. This GOP advantage means the national congressional map will remain skewed toward the GOP
The Census Bureau is set to release the key data needed for redistricting tomorrow, & mapmakers will scramble to draw new districts ahead of upcoming deadlines in state law. In some states that means just a few weeks to draw new maps, giving little time for public input
The GOP's 2020s redistricting edge isn't as large as after 2010, when they drew just over half the districts & Dems just one tenth.

However, the Supreme Court could make GOP gerrymandering even more potent, particularly if it further guts what's left of the Voting Rights Act
Republican gerrymandering alone could flip the House in 2022, & it could lead to minority rule next year & beyond.

However, there's still a chance to ban congressional gerrymandering nationally if Senate Dems pass the For the People Act or a similar bill dailykos.com/stories/2021/3…
However, time is dwindling for Senate Dems to require fairer districts for 2022, & they just went on a month-long recess without passing any such bill. But even if they pass the legislation later, it could still require fairer districts for 2024 & beyond washingtonpost.com/politics/votin…
We will be keeping this redistricting guide updated as states begin passing their maps or there's a change in which party is favored in a particular state, so be sure to bookmark it!
A special thanks to @_justinlevitt_ & his team that compiled their "All About Redistricting" site, which is an indispensable resource on redistricting law & recent history of the processes for every state. It's great for tracking ongoing litigation too redistricting.lls.edu

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More from @PoliticsWolf

Stephen Wolf Profile picture
6 Jul
1/4 I'm deleting this thread & redoing it for clarity since many folks are just ignoring what I wrote & reading something into it that I didn't intend. I'm not subtweeting you in particular or telling you what to do if that's not what you're here for, just friendly suggestions ImageImage
2/4 #ElectionTwitter folks do a lot of cool stuff that people want to see, & some of y'all have funny/interesting takes on non-election topics too. But if you tweet 100 times a day & 10:1 about the latter, it makes it hard for people with limited time to follow you for the former
3/4 All I'm saying: Be mindful of your audience if you want to build up a following & get your work more broadly seen, but if you don't care, just ignore! I stay more on topic between 7am-7pm eastern than on weekends & evenings. Readers using lists helps
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
1 Jul
America did not truly become a liberal democracy until 1965 with the passage of the Voting Rights Act. It's the most important civil rights law in U.S. history, & the Roberts Court has tried to dismantle it for many years (with Roberts himself spending his whole career on it)
While not the worst-case scenario, SCOTUS just delivered a major blow to the VRA by making it harder to strike down voting laws with discriminatory effects on voters of color.

Proving racist intent is often impossible, which is why banning racist effects has been so effective
Your reminder that a majority of 5 GOP Supreme Court justices were confirmed by Senates where the Dem minority represented more people & had won more votes than the GOP majority, with 3 of those justices appointed by presidents who lost the popular vote dailykos.com/stories/2020/1…
Read 11 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
30 Jun
Re-sharing after last night’s debacle.

Another key thing to know about New York elections is that the GOP had a gerrymandered hold on the state Senate for decades until after 2018 & blocked reform for years.

Dems passed a ton of voting fixes since 2019 but still have much to do
Same goes for slow vote counting, which has nothing to do with ranked-choice voting & everything to do with New York law.

State Dems passed a bill this month to ensure absentee ballots get counted much quicker in future, & almost every Republican voted no dailykos.com/stories/2021/6…
You're going to see a lot of bad-faith Republicans use New York City's unique screw-ups as a pretext to spread lies about ranked-choice voting without so much as acknowledging that their party is fighting to keep things broken.

They want chaos to delegitimize elections they lose
Read 5 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
28 Jun
Gee, what do you know, a significant minority of the voters swept up in a 2017 Georgia GOP purge of the rolls were still eligible & some re-registered. And no, every state doesn't remove eligible voters from the rolls simply for exercising their right not to vote like in Georgia
Yes, it's true that every state removes people voters from the rolls when they die or move. And it's also true that, while Republicans in Georgia & elsewhere have done just that, they've also intentionally swept up many people who are still eligible, especially voters of color
The 1993 National Voter Registration Act (motor voter law) says states cannot remove eligible voters from the rolls simply for exercising their right not to vote. SCOTUS gutted that protection on the most pretextual grounds in 2018, so GOP states adopted "use it or lose it" laws
Read 4 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
23 Jun
Colorado's independent redistricting commission will release a preliminary congressional map shortly. Here are 2 maps I just quickly drew to give you a basic idea.

Left has a Latino district #CO01: davesredistricting.org/join/6ddda8a2-…
Right keeps Denver mostly whole: davesredistricting.org/join/76acb619-…
Both of these CO maps would have 4 relatively safe Dem districts, 3 relatively safe GOP districts (though Boebert could imperil their hold on #CO03), & the new #CO08 would be a swingy Trump '16 - Biden '20 district. I don't have precise 2020 data yet
Breaking: Colorado's independent redistricting commission just released its preliminary congressional map proposal.

This map is very problematic IMO for not drawing a substantially Latino district in Denver as I did upthread & instead prioritizes keeping Denver mostly whole
Read 9 tweets
Stephen Wolf Profile picture
23 Jun
Connecticut's Dem governor just signed a law that:
✅Adopts automatic voter registration at various state agencies
✅Restores voting rights to everyone not in prison
✅Allows online mail ballots requests & makes drop boxes permanent
✅Gives workers 2 hours unpaid time off to vote
After Connecticut's expansion of automatic voter registration & voting rights restoration, I've updated my cartograms on AVR & felony voter bans.

47% of Americans live in states with AVR laws & 55% in states where almost everyone not in prison can vote
Since just 2015, there's been huge progress on the adoption of automatic voter registration after Oregon became the first state to adopt it that year, & many states (plus D.C.) both blue & red have curtailed felony voter bans in that same time period. Still a ways to go, though
Read 4 tweets

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