There are opinionators here so dislocated from reality in their rarified quarters that they confuse Pakistanis detestation for the elite Kabul kleptocracy as love for the Taliban. There’s none! Nothing would please them more than the demise Ghani and his rotten puppet regime
Maybe such intellectuals may enjoy breaking bread with those who vilify Pakistan in the most foul manner from the pedestal of National Security office and even their Presidency, but most ordinary Pakistanis will have no truck with such filth. And yes have no good wishes fir them.
Maybe such brilliant essayist have no qualms about the Kabuli elite nefarious intrigues with the Indians against the peace and happiness of Pakistanis. Maybe they’re even ok with the tragedy of APS perpetuated at the behest of Afghani NDS by their TTP dogs
Yes there are few Pakistanis who’ll shed a tear for the long overdue expiration of such a cluster of rottenness who have mercilessly plundered Afghanistan, and impoverished Afghanis further into poverty. That in no way suggest a lack of sympathy and love for the ordinary Afghani
Few things would more please every Pakistani than a peaceful & prosperous Afghanistan where Afghanis live in freedom with all the benefits of modernity. No Pakistani wants women and children in Kandahar or Kabul not have the same dreams as they would want Islamabad or Karachi
*Yet nothing would then…
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The final chapter still has to be written. As we come to the dénouement there are still strands in the complex web of subplots that may not yet be apparent. However, its now clear that most journalists & DC think tanks have been clueless about the game actually being played out
While many of the ‘expert’ prognosticators have been hyperventilating about an impending protracted civil war and painting the gory picture of blood strewn streets, the Taliban have been quietly negotiating with traditional power brokers the transfer of power in city after city
When wishful thinking takes over ground realities then it’s possible to imagine India playing a major a role in post US exit scenario’because ‘it’s invested $3bn in Afghanistan’. The fact it’s done with the soon to be jettisoned Ghani kleptocracy is ignored from such analysis
Y’all naysayers & doubting Thomas’s who so very much wish for bad news on Pakistan economy, read this & despair. I estimate full yr FY21 GDP growth likely to be revised up from 3.8% to 4.5% on the back revised PBS full year FY21 LSM grwth now estimated at 14.85% v -9.78% for FY20
This is the highest LSM growth since FY06.
Rejoice Independence Day 🎂🇵🇰🎉
Doubt being cast on NAC’s provisional GDP growth estimate of 3.94% because “Electricity generation & distribution and Gas distribution” is down 22.96%. The formula used in national accounts for power: Power generation + (subsidies x deflator). However this is subsidies are
GDP is correlated to actual Power Units sold. Historically growth in power units sold is about 1.25-1.5 times the real GDP growth. Given that in the the first 10 moths of this months units sold has grown YoY 6.91%, it would suggest growth of of about 4.6-5.5% GDP growth
So if anything the provisional 3.94% figure maybe low balling the actual GDP growth as many independent analysts suspect. The full year LSM is almost certainly going to be significantly higher than NAC estimate of 9%. Also we shall find IMF and WB will be revising the numbers
If GoP decides to dig the largest hole in the world without purpose that too will contribute to GDP growth. lt’ll need excavators, big trucks, explosives, and create many jobs whilst digging. However, on completion if the giant hole generates not much to sell, it’ll soon fill up
The hole & all the activity around digging it will soon enough get forgotten, but the interest on the loan & principle itself the government borrowed, domestically & internationally (FX to buy specialised equipment) will still have to paid back. The jobs would have disappeared
Few will remember the hole but all will’ve to pay for many years to come. While digging it the government would have been able to boast about how GDP growth had gone up during its tenure, but future government’s growth will be restricted by the loans they have to pay for the hole
While it’s too early to take comfort the numbers suggest that @OfficialNcoc can be credited for having so far prevented an exponential surge in covid-19 cases. While one must thank Allah for His mercy, the stark difference btw S Asian countries reflects impact of policy actions
It’s best to use cases per million as that equalises the differences in population size of countries. Also that’s observable both in the log and linear scales
It’s important to compare the positivity ratios across countries to get an idea of if the differences are because of lack of sufficient testing. A higher positivity ratio tends to indicate insufficient testing. Also rapidly increasing positivity is precursor of increase in cases