Thread by @javedhassan

The final chapter still has to be written. As we come to the dénouement there are still strands in the complex web of subplots that may not yet be apparent. However, its now clear that most journalists & DC think tanks have been clueless about the game actually being played out

While many of the ‘expert’ prognosticators have been hyperventilating about an impending protracted civil war and painting the gory picture of blood strewn streets, the Taliban have been quietly negotiating with traditional power brokers the transfer of power in city after city

When wishful thinking takes over ground realities then it’s possible to imagine India playing a major a role in post US exit scenario’because ‘it’s invested $3bn in Afghanistan’. The fact it’s done with the soon to be jettisoned Ghani kleptocracy is ignored from such analysis

Or the laughably absurd hope that an army of essentially young men with no loyalty to a deeply fractious and corrupt Kabul regime would up a fight against those with whom there’s often with ties of kinship if not a common interest for minimising bloodshed.

The fact that average Afghani soldier & his Taliban counterpart could be savvy enough to want see as little violence as is possible doesn’t even cross the mind of ‘experts’ who view the situation through a prism that sees one side as fanatic zealots and other as liberal warriors

Or the reality that the Taliban are not in the pocket of anyone but fiercely independent nationalists first and foremost. Over & above every other consideration, they want the elimination of intrusive foreign presence and interference from their land. This applies to Pakistan too

However, at the same time as their patience & resilience - traits that are the mark of wisdom traditionally - demonstrates enough to know that their peoples best interest is served through fraternal relations with immediate neighbours rather than those from far away lands,

whose interest primarily lie in exploitating Afghanistan’s strategic location in causing mischief against others such as Pakistan and China. For all his academic/Socratic pretentions, Professor Ghani and coterie of crooks seemed incapable of grasping that very elementary fact

As much as malign external forces outwardly decry, but secretly hope for a bloodbath of protracted civil war, most Afghans know that few things would serve them better a singular dominant force that brings about a transfer of power through behind the scenes negotiations.

Unfortunately the US, India & other external players have been left out of these intricate negotiations because they have little inclination in trying to bring about convergence between patchwork of diverse power groups and sometimes conflicting interests to ensure lasting peace