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David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
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11 Aug, 5 tweets, 2 min read
New cases per day (blue line is rolling average) vs @Folkhalsomynd modelling in July (red line).

Thanks @BishopBlougram for the heads up.
The July modelling included an assumption that delta was 50% more infections than Alfa. This is within the ballpark of most estimates at the time, it may be higher.

They also assume that if vaccinated or previously infected (by any variant) you cannot be infected again.
This I don't think is enough to explain how the model was so very wrong, though a problem I have with this type of modelling in general is so many of the variables are assumptions, and with a phenomenon of exponential growth, small errors can end up being very significant.
Is it contact rates that are different? Vaccination rates? Assumptions on the # of previous infected?

I haven't time to look at it all right now, but clearly some of the assumptions were incorrect.

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/contentassets/…
This wouldn't be helping ...

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More from @DavidSteadson

David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
12 Aug
Sweden's first Covid press conference in 6 weeks today. When asked if they've estimated how many kids are going to be infected in schools, the Health Authority says they've not.

So I have.

Varsågod @Folkhalsomynd @Skolverket @socialstyrelsen @lenahallengren @Anna_Ekstrom
I did some quick calculations based on R_e last week, but in this thread I'll look more directly at the real world consequences.

This paper looked at risk of hospitalisation, ICU admission, and mortality by age.

Note that *this is pre-delta*. Still "fog of war" data, but there are many indications outcomes for delta is worse, so numbers in this thread may be an underestimate.

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 18 tweets
David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
10 Aug
My son starts school next week.

8 months after Covid infection and 6 months after a referral to a specialist - a referral that was only accepted after his Doctor *removed* references to Covid - he has an appointment confirmed in 2 weeks.

#LongCovidKids

nytimes.com/2021/08/08/hea…
My Long Covid is much improved following vaccination, but if he feels remotely the way I still often feel, I have no idea at all how he is going to be able to go to school every day. 😥
We looked at travelling abroad to get him vaccinated, but with the announcement they'd started to vaccinating 16-17 yr olds he was hopeful it would extend to him soon (he's 15½) and decided against it.

We may have to re-evaluate.
Read 4 tweets
David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
3 Aug
In Sweden, holidays will soon be over, and schools and day care will be reopening fully in 2 weeks for over 2 million children under the age of 18.

There will be no masks, no HEPA filters, no bubbles, no CO2 monitors, no quick tests, no ventilation assessments. >
While exceptions to allow for remote learning are allowed if circumstances dictate (for an individual sick child, or a school outbreak), the general advice is clear that school is back to "normal" in-person learning.>
This is based on the Swedish Public Health Authoritie's assessment, published July 19, that adult vaccinations are high, and the spread of infection is decreasing.>

folkhalsomyndigheten.se/smittskydd-ber…
Read 28 tweets
David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
9 Jul
From a recent report by Sweden's Children's Ombudsman -

"When we sought children with long-term symptoms of covid-19 to interview, the response was much stronger than we had expected"

In this thread, I will give these children voice.

#LongCovidKids

barnombudsmannen.se/globalassets/d…
"Right now school is ok, if I compare with before. I have to take a break, so I'm very tired during the day so I have to sleep at least once a day, even at school. I will be tired and dizzy, but I have found a place ... where I can rest at school." Boy 13 years

#LongCovidKids
"It was hard to be away from school so much, and it's really hard when it hurts so much. But I manage, I do well in almost all subjects." Boy 11 years

#longcovidkids
Read 22 tweets
David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
8 Jul
Scientists: Prime Minister! Prime Minister! We've detected an asteroid that is going to hit the earth in 18 months! If we act now we can stop it!

Prof Balloux: You should resign as a scientist and run for office, then you can raise your concerns in the appropriate forum.🤷‍♂️
OK, I'm exaggerating his position a little there, but well, he's exaggerating that of the scientists in today's OpEd. Balloux says -
Sure, who said otherwise in today's Lancet commentary and the press conference?

thelancet.com/journals/lance…
Read 4 tweets
David Steadson 🇦🇺🇸🇪🇪🇺🌍 Profile picture
13 Jun
@BrodinPetter My son is 15. Barely missed a day of school until this year. He got Covid in January. He attended just 3 days and has failed more than half his subjects - he'd never failed before.

His doctor diagnosed him with #Longcovid, the children's clinic refused to even accept him.
>
@BrodinPetter Saying they couldn't help him. She tried the adult respiratory clinic. Too you, they wouldn't accept him. She resent a referral to the children's clinic, but *didn't* mention long covid. 6 weeks ago they acknowledged they'd received the request. Nothing since.
>
@BrodinPetter He was infected by a presymptomatic 10 yr old boy.

This reality happened despite us being assured that children don't transmit, children don't get sick, asymptomatic transmission is rare.

Reality says otherwise.
>
Read 10 tweets

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