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16 Mar, 4 tweets, 2 min read
YouTuber AI Addict posted a video yesterday of a drive through Oakland on the latest version of Tesla FSD Beta 8.2 “City Streets”.

Regardless of what you think of a product Tesla calls “Full Self-Driving”, do yourself a favor and watch these clips.

Part 2: These are clips from a 28-minute drive.

There’s a difference between, “The software will get better when the NN has way more data,” vs. hardware ceiled Level 2 ADAS, as even Tesla now admits.

Tesla robotaxi dreamers will have to wait for cars with the proper HW.
Their videos seem very honest. I imagine they won't have the Beta much longer.

A commenter thanked them for providing us with, "...a balanced view of what is ahead. Others try to show it is near perfect."

Check out this video, also on latest version.
By the way, the person who took these videos is a Tesla employee.

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More from @TaylorOgan

Taylor Ogan Profile picture
9 Mar
Tesla FSD Thread:

Let's dissect Tesla's Full Self-Driving, because I haven't seen anyone really get to the meat of it.

There has been a lot of confusion re: FSD/robotaxis, especially recently with the emails between Tesla and @CA_DMV that were obtained through a FOIA request.
2/ This may surprise you, but from the very beginning (2016), Tesla defined of what exactly it intended FSD to one-day be capable:

This is from Tesla's website in 2016, when it began offering Full Self-Driving Capability.
3/ Five years later, the features have been officially named, but the functions of "Full Self-Driving" have never changed. This is what Tesla's website says today.
Read 25 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
11 Jan
Quick thread on #NIODay from this weekend, the effect it is having on $TSLA, $BYDDF, $QS, $LAZR, $NVDA, CATL, and what is to come.

The NIO ET7 boasts 621mi range (150kWh battery) for $70k-$80k & Level 3 autonomy. This prices right in-between Model 3 SR+ & base Model S.
2/ $TSLA is down -6% today, largely on this news. Not surprising, but TSLA bulls aren't flinching from this. NIO ET7 isn't really expected to hit the roads until late next year–enough time for Tesla to refresh S/X & boost pack size, TSLA bulls think.

$NIO is up 8.5% today.
3/ BYD (1211 HK) was up 6.7% in China on Monday partially on the news of its surprise unveiling this morning of 3 new "super hybrid" models (PHEV): Qin PLUS DM-i, Song PLUS DM-i, & Tang DM-i.

$BYDDF is up 3.5% today
Read 13 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
8 Oct 20
1/ Thread following up on our $TSLA Q3 production & delivery estimates from last week: our estimates were high for three main reasons, which we will go into.

@snowbullcapital
2/ Our S/X production estimates were off by only 149 vehicles, & S/X delivery estimates by 700. We thought there would be a bit more inventory this quarter, but our accuracy here is pretty consistent with previous quarters, as we used the same methods. 3/Y is where it was hard.
3/ S/X production lines (GA1 & GA2) have changed very little since Fremont reopened, and we expect similar production capacity to remain through the next 3+ quarters on these lines.
Read 24 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
1 Oct 20
@snowbullcapital In China, MIC SR+ Model 3s are already rolling off the line with CATL’s LFP batteries. Interestingly, the new batteries weigh the same as LG Chem’s batteries in MIC LR RWD Model 3s.
@snowbullcapital In terms of MIC Model Y, the Fremont Model Y assembly engineering team has been at GF3 during the factory ‘shut down’ last week building NEW Model Y lines (not retooling existing Model 3 lines, as many thought).
@snowbullcapital The Model Y lines are going to be nearly identical to the most recent Model Y line at Fremont, at first. That won't take long.
Read 13 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
23 Sep 20
1/ No, @skorusARK. Think this through. First of all, you really think that Tesla would waste its already-constrained battery production on a 90kWh pack for a "car for the masses" with a 405mi range?! NO! Tesla has no issue currently selling $38k Model 3s with 250mi range.
2/ Let's be more realistic. The "Model 2" will likely have a 45kWh pack, with a range of 202mi (4.5mi/kWh) to 243mi (5.4mi/kWh). ID.3 range.
3/ Also, why are you keeping gross margins fixed? If Tesla can even get down to $56/kWh, $56/kWh x 45kWh = $2,520 ÷ $25,000 = 10.1% of COGS, which imputes an increase of 9.1% that can be, ceteris paribus, added to the current 15% gross margin = 24.1% total gross margin.
Read 6 tweets
Taylor Ogan Profile picture
8 Sep 20
1/ For those wanting extreme granularity for , using @TroyTeslike's Model Y survey and @snowbullcapital's data, here’s a thread of some of the Model Y data thus far (up to VIN 47k).
2/ The most common Model Y trim is the Long Range AWD with Pearl White Multi-Coat, 19” Gemini Wheels, All Black interior, with no FSD (15%). The rarest Model Y Trim is the Performance with Solid Black paint, 21’’ Überturbine Wheels, Black and White interior, with FSD (0.53%). Image
3/ Paint color is consistent between Performance and non-performance Model Ys. Image
Read 8 tweets

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