Where i find my winners?
ok, nice question. let me start with example - from these two on whom you bet your money?
answer is obvious right?
but while trading... many people do otherwise
(1/n)
now same question for stocks..
where you bet your money?
When we have comparable option side by side - our answer will change.
but in live trading our we gets kick in finding a bottom and we love to boast about that.
(2/n)
Whats the point?
Point am here to make is we have to make our process in such a way that by default
- we analyse only winners for long and losers for short
20% of trading system is finding a good stock - entry n sl comes later.
How I do it?
Its all about data.
just observe where big players are betting their money. whether its fii data, delivery data, Open Interest data. Then look at charts whether charts second that view on not.
"gyaan ke liye theek hai .. karne ka kya who bolo na..."
(3/n)
I wont say "kya karneka" but can say what I do.
What i have observed that before any major move. data of delivery or Open interest will show some indications. I call it foot prints of large players or insiders.
just look at compilation of this data for last 3-4 days.
(4/n)
from report we can observe that before major move many times we can see the same in data.
Whether all stocks will move?
No
Then how to filter?
look at charts
How to read this data?
watch our youtube video where have explained how to look at data.
Thread on budget day nifty movement:
Few data points for budget day. 1. Average range for day 2.4% - can use this range of intraday strike selection. 2. When nifty fell >1.5% before budget - post budget nifty rises >2% in next 4 days - @jitendrajain@yogeeswarpal
(1/4)
can use this data for taking a risk defined bullish position. 3. If we compare low post event and high post event.. On majority of occasions nifty has seen a recovery in next 4 days [average low is -1% and avg high 2.7%] - this also indicates on bullish side…
(2/4)
So can use this statistics for building your non-directional or directional strategy post budget..
statistically speaking, 1. long put or naked short futures don't make sense. 2. Can do bullish debit spreads or bullish credit spreads..
(3/4)
Thread on USDINR Trading:
Part of my capital i trade in USDINR - non-directional.
Past few months it traded in very narrow band - which is paradise for non-direction trading.
check chart.. last 3 months in just 2 Rs. Range
Today will share my December 2020 trade in USDINR
(1/4)
Entry Date: 8th December [normally i take position 40 - 45DTE]
Trade: iron condor
Strikes: sold 74.5 Ce and 73.5 PE [Jan 21 expiry]
Hedge: bought 75.5Ce and 72.5PE [Jan 21 expiry]
qty: for illustration shown 100 lots..
margin needed : 1,81,000
(2/4)
This is how pay off graph looks:
Risk reward: little under 1:1 [good for iron condors]
Adjustments: we are covered for 1 Rs on both sides. but in case of drastic move adjustments will be needed.
Trending markets are very tough for the option seller. So working on something which could find calmness in chaos. what I realised solution to this could be your Risk management [Mathematics for me]. (1/n)
scenario 1:
with 60% success Rate on wining day you gain 30 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 4%. (2/n)
scenario 2:
keeping success Rate same at 60% - lets improve out winning days gain to 35 points and on losing day you lose 30 points. so monthly you can make 6%. (3/n)
For pivot point enthusiast:
Have done some data analysis on where nifty opens and where it closes in terms of pivot points. Have used 2 parameters
Where nifty opens-[above pivot, above R1, below pivot, below S1]
Where nifty closes-[abv pivot, abv R1, below pivot, below S1] (1/5)
example looking at open location data : -
Opened above pivot - 44%
Opened below pivot - 30%,
Opened above R1 - 18%
Opened below S1 - 8%
If we further breakdown each category in to where nifty closed that day for each category [where it opened] we get few datapoints.. (2/5)
INFY result Trade: Sold 1160CE & 1120PE for combined premium of 80 points.. Result is overnight so will hedge this position with 1220Ce & 1060PE at 3PM today..
Idea here is being ready with plan.. how i think in such trades. 1) entry in trade... 2) hedge for the trade... 3) Plan to reduce the hedge cost.. 4) Exit target [in profit] in case of Small move.. 5) adjustment plan in case of bigger move..
and most important part is point 5
added hedge.. at cost of 35 points..
many people asked why to take risk..
In morning this hedge was available at 40 points and now i hedged at 35 points.. hope all got their answer.. now my risk is only 25 points on this trade..
Thread on pre-earning trade:
Purpose : Earn from IV crush post result as uncertainty is over.
Which stocks: stocks with higher IVP(Iv percentile) and historical volatility lower then IV
Strategies: can do straddle or strangle / low risk iron fly or iron condor (1/n)
How i play? : iron fly for overnight results (save from gap up like wipro/infy) and
straddles for results during market hours
This all is available if you google it : but key is how you manage post result.
no standard way to react so have your plan ready before trade.(2/n)
Have all scenarios chalked out
Will explain with example of sbi trade:
Sbi result was in market hours.
Trade taken: sold 190 straddle for 23 RS.
Target: 4- 5 rs decay
Breakeven level: 213 & 167
(3/n)