Thread by @marcowenjones

🧵1/ This thread is about a trend advocating for preventing Omar al-Bashir, wanted for crimes against humanity, from being sent to the ICC. It's a fantastic example of how artificially amplified and manipulated trends pretend to be grassroots sentiment #Disinformation #Sudan

2/ firstly, this shouldn't be taken lightly. The warrants against al-Bashir include the worst charges, from extermination, torture, and intentional targeting of civilians. Up to 500,000 are thought to have been killed as a result of the Darfur genocide (although figures vary).

3/ The trend translates as 'Surrending al-Bashir is an insult to Sudan'. It started trending on the evening of the 11th August. Then, @sabqorg an Arabic newspaper, ran a story about the trend saying it reflected 'popular (Gulf) outrage' about al-Bashir's plight #disinformation

4/ But is it really a reflection of popular outrage? Let's look in more detail at the hashtag. This analysis involves around 11,000 interactions taken from 11th-13th August involving around 7600 unique Twitter accounts. #disinformation #ICC #Sudan

5/ Firstly, who are the big influencers on the hashtag. Well it, seems they are the following, s_hm2030, a_albander, cressfiles, mjathlani, faljubairi, monther72, 5aldi Those who follow my threads may recognize these names. They are prominent on many dodgy gulf trends

6/ Now maybe many of those sharing this opinion genuinely believe it, though the narrative seems to be generally the same. It's a breach of state sovereignty and 'true Arabs' should reject this Western imposition of law/rules. In other words, Bashir should face justice in Sudan

7/ But can this same group of influencers, who often engage in fake trends, and many of whom recently weighed in on the Tunisia issue - really be misinterpreted as a good barometer for Arab public opinion? Well the manipulation present would indicate - no -Read on #disinformation

8/ The network graph below shows areas of manipulation (circled in red). These areas indicate clusters of fake accounts boosting the hashtag. They are defined by sockpuppet accounts all using the same app (Twitter Web App) to automatically RT a specific account #disinformation

9/ For example, The following community are accounts retweeting ANOTHER hacked verified account, this one belongs to @LeighEBuchanan the editor for @Inc magazine (who have over 2 million Twitter followers). It's been hacked by some mobile phone vendor in Saudi. Drop 'em a line!

10/ There are at least 170 fake accounts retweeting the hacked @LeighEBuchanan alone. These fake accounts include likely sock puppet accounts such as Adham al Onazi, aka @KristineRolfson and Khulud, aka @eduardo_psi #disinformation #cybersecurity

11/ This cluster is similar, hundreds of sockpuppets retweeting marketing accounts advertising things like massages - also with Saudi whatsapp numbers. Check out the @TheChadSakada for a massage, and some Omar al-Bashir Spam! Total sockpuppets in the cluster, around 529. #disinfo

12/ Similarly, in this cluster there are around 144 sockpuppet accounts. Shout out to @steveknott020 whose interests include selling phones and Omar al-Bashir spam

13/ This is an interesting cluster, as it's embedded within the main network and retweeting what appears to be a real verified account mjathlani. I estimate this cluster to include between 300-358 sockpuppets. They mostly RT the same accounts and tweet generic content #disinfo

14/ So the TL;DR is that there around 1029 sockpuppets boosting the trend advocating not surrending al-Bashir to the ICC. It is unclear how many of these boosted trends are done by opportunistic marketing agencies, or they are enlisted to boost a trend. Some clearly are RT

15/ certain messages in a way that appears to be to increase the prominence of the hashtag. Generally though, the same group of influencers we often see on disinfo trends appear to be very prominent. The Cressfiles account is an interesting one. A related incarnation

16/ Cresstove was suspended by Twitter soon after it was active in a big disinformation campaign. Anyway, While @sabqorg report this as public opinion, at least 14% are sockpuppets, and I'll wager this trend reflects top-down policy (even if many agree). #disinformation