Skydiver Bill Booth and Booth's Rule #2 can tell us a lot about this careless phase of the pandemic. Stick with this. Like in diving, surfing or other high risk sports, as equipment became safer, the fatality rate remained exactly the same. There was simply a risk offset. 1/
“The safer skydiving gear becomes, the more chances skydivers will take, in order to keep the fatality rate constant," Booth noted. Parachutes are safer, but also faster, with high performing canopies pushing divers who become too confident because of these safety features. 2/
What was worse, the careless behavior was harming the safer divers and surfers: more fatal crashes, more collisions, more drownings as the safe riders tried to avoid the offsetting ones. 3/
It has a wonky term: Risk Homeostatis (RHT). It describes how someone can justify careless, selfish (maybe evil, looking at you GOP govs) behavior in their mind. It is harmful. It offsets the very benefit of the safety feature (think vaccine) in the first place. 4/
Anyway, the vaccinated are done with carrying the burden of those who would offset its benefits. Those who choose to live carelessly may have all sorts of reasons, but that choice can no longer undermine the safety feature we are so blessed to have now. 5/5

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More from @juliettekayyem

27 Jul
I too am at wits end, but the takeaway from the CDC today isn't about masking. It is the science. Delta is infecting a small proportion of people who are fully vaccinated, allowing them then to transmit more easily than the original or alpha strains. We are spreaders.
I just advise based on the science. Not a doctor. But this line in guidance stands out as driving change: "However, preliminary evidence suggests that fully vaccinated people who do become infected with the Delta variant can be infectious and can spread the virus to others."
This is much stronger than what where it links to, the May "no mask" guidance, pre-Delta. It means in areas where Delta reigns and goes unchecked, the vaccinated are actually transmitting more easily than when the vaccines first were tested. An endless loop.
Read 4 tweets
27 Jul
The 1/6 hearings are less like the common analogies of 9/11 Commission or Trump's impeachments. Instead, look to the Vietnam Hearings held by Senate Foreign Relations Chair J. William Fulbright in 1966. 1/
A reporter had written to Fulbright in early 1966 to say "the war is not going well. If there is a God, and he is very kind to us, and given a million men, and five years, and a miracle in making the South Vietnamese people like us, we stand an outside chance—of a stalemate." 2/
The hearings were not conclusive; the war lasted years after. But they began Fulbright's attempts to forestall a buildup and "educate" the American public about the dangers at hand. Fulbright -- who pulled his dark glasses off at key moments -- was also from central casting. 3/
Read 7 tweets
12 Jul
Why do Cuba and Haiti matter to US? Yes, freedom and rule of law are important. But there is also a safety reason: both countries are the starting point for the most difficult and destabilizing mass migrations to US in the 1980s and 90s. These are dangerous for those who flee. 1/
There is a misconception that mass migrations begin because of climate or other disasters. It isn't true; there are climate refugees, but unexpected mass maritime migrations are almost always caused by political unrest. 2/
Those of us of a certain age will remember "boat people." You can be pretty confident that our US intelligence and Coast Guard are monitoring maritime activity, things like are trees suddenly disappearing and whether there are sustainable water supplies. 3/
Read 4 tweets
9 Jul
We spent 2020 learning about COVID, and we are still learning. We learned that a binary nature of response -- let it rip or shut it all down -- wasn't accurate or sustainable. #TokyoOlympics should have made decision to prohibit spectators earlier. Now the Games go on. Good. 1/
So much wrong with the Olympics: money, greed, stupid rules about marijuana use. Separate those all out. The question is really can the risk be reduced enough -- with all the health rules in place, including no spectators now -- to hold a safer, responsible Olympics. 2/
The answer is yes, but nothing is perfect. Many of us who help with sports security have been pushing for no spectators for awhile. It's a simple calculation: the goal is for athletes to compete and spectators are nice but not essential. Everything to its core functionality. 3/
Read 5 tweets
6 Jul
On this 6 month anniversary of 1/6/2021 insurrection, it is important we take an account of where we are. Lots of bad news and worrying for our democracy. But, through the dismay, I'll do the good news part lest the hard work be viewed as totally futile. Thread. 1/
A week after 1/6, I wrote this @TheAtlantic about how viewing Trump as the leader of a terror organization was now the correct framework. It was viewed by many in my field as paranoid, too extreme, the wrong framing. We now know much more about 1/6. 2/
theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
I had long viewed Trump has inciting terror, and used words like "stochastic terrorism" to describe his brand of inciting, without owning, violence. It was too benign. Violence is his north star, the GOP knows it. The Big Lie isn't some political rally; it is a call to arms. 3/
Read 11 tweets
26 Jun
Thread on #InsurrectionAct. After Hurricane Katrina, when civil society had broken down and basic food and water needs not addressed, Pres. Bush was presented with the option to invoke the #Insurrection Act to deploy active military. The merits were strong. Still, he declined 1/
It will go down as one of the most "what if" questions of that era. Deployments like that are complicated and it is naive to think the military would have solved everything.
But perhaps they could have solved more. And Bush liked military efforts, after all. 2/
In his recollections, and others, it was the idea of deploying active military, not trained for such efforts, opposed by the Governor (a Democrat then), and the precedent it would set for the nation that got him to no. 3/
Read 6 tweets

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