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Bill Roggio Profile picture
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14 Aug, 4 tweets, 2 min read
The U.S. military has a very real predicament. It must now evacuate the embassy in Kabul, via Hamid Karzai International Airport. What happens when Afghans grasp the gravity of the situation, the airport is swarmed? This is why it needed to keep Bagram open.
Will the U.S. be able to rely on Afghan security forces to maintain a perimeter when it folded under the weight of the Taliban offensive? What happens if U.S. troops have to do the job? If the evacuation isn't done quickly, this can get real ugly, real fast.
I suggest looking at a Google Earth map of Kabul. The airport is in the city. It is a short ride from the city center to the airport. There are neighborhoods near it. If you've been there, you know what I mean. If there is a press of Afghans to get out, it will get dangerous.
If the Taliban coming into rocket/artillery range, the chaos and panic will be incalculable. This is why the evac of the embassy had to happen a month ago. @SecBlinken will own this one. @StateDept's insistence on keeping embassy open was wrong all along.

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More from @billroggio

Bill Roggio Profile picture
10 Aug
1) It has been fun watching those who are complicit in Afghanistan's failure come out of the woodwork to gab. Doug Lute, who was President Obama's adviser on AfPak, shows just how little he knows about Afghanistan in the PBS Newshour interview.
pbs.org/newshour/show/…
2) Lute begins to talk about the Taliban offensive, says "In some of these remote rural areas, largely still rural areas where the Taliban is gaining military — military effectiveness," the host rightly cuts him off, and notes the fighting is in the cities, not just rural areas.
3) Lute then doubles down on his ignorance with this gem: "The other provincial capitols and the handful that have fallen are still relatively small and relatively remote and in Pashtun-dominated areas."
Let's go down the list of cities.
Read 8 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
23 Jul
Not to say I told you so (but I told you so), now the U.S. military realizes that the Afghan govt is losing and must consolidate its forces and abandon large areas of the country to defend the defensible and have a shot at retaking key terrain:

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
I wrote on May 25, when the Taliban offensive was starting to take shape, that "The ANSDF will need to consolidate positions to hold areas that it has a higher chance of defending."
Cont...
longwarjournal.org/archives/2021/…
Continued... "This means that, at a minimum, it must withdraw its forces from the south and east, while redeploying them to the center and north."

Had the Afghan gov't did this, it may not have lost such large areas in the north.
Read 5 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
23 Jun
1) The Afghan government's "strategy" - if you can call it that - appears to be to abandon so called remote and unimportant district and defend the major cities. This is recipe for failure, which I have written about for years. More below...
2) I wrote this in 2018: "While US and Afghan military officials have claimed that Afghanistan's remote areas are strategically insignificant, the Taliban has used its mastery of them as a springboard to take the fight to more populated areas." Cont... longwarjournal.org/archives/2018/…
3) "In these remote districts, the Taliban has established its shadow government, which it uses to spread its ideology and further its military aims. Here, the Taliban taxes the local populations, recruits fighters, establishes training camps and military stockpiles ..."
Read 7 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
14 Jun
1) The U.S. military will not conduct airstrikes to support the ANDSF against the Taliban, Gen. Frank McKenzie, head of CENTCOM, said. This was entirely predictable. President Biden wants to end this so-called endless war. However the war - the Endless Jihad - will continue.
2) From @VOANews
“That would be the reason for any strikes that we do in Afghanistan after we leave, (it) would have to be that we’ve uncovered someone who wants to attack the homeland of the United States, one of our allies and partners,”
voanews.com/usa/voa-exclus…
@VOANews 3) In other words, the U.S. military will only conduct "over the horizon" strikes against terrorists plotting to attack the U.S. or allies. Read: the Al Qaeda, the Islamic State, etc. Not the Taliban.
Read 5 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
14 Jun
1) I believe that the Taliban, via intermediaries (local tribal elders, etc.) is negotiating the surrender of many district centers. There are numerous reports of ANDSF abandoning outposts, bases and district centers.
2) There is evidence of this in the Afghan press. From @TOLOnews: "Some districts were handed over to the Taliban in the west without resistance and their equipment was left for militants,” said Sadiq Qaderi, an MP from Herat.

tolonews.com/afghanistan-17…
@TOLOnews 3) @TOLOnews on 6/12/2021:
"Elders--or others--who act as mediators to negotiate between government forces and the Taliban-- causing security force members to abandon their posts--have been arrested, the Ministry of Interior Affairs (MoI) said on Sunday."
tolonews.com/afghanistan-17…
Read 9 tweets
Bill Roggio Profile picture
12 Jun
1) Afghan officials have confirmed that Tolak in Ghor & Sozma Qala n Sar-I-Pul have fallen to the Taliban (Taliban officially claimed this on Voice of Jihad). Taliban also claimed it captured Arghanj Khaw in Badakhshan; Afghan officials previously said was in danger of falling.
2) Taliban also has claimed it capteure Zari in Balkh. Afghan officials admitted the district center had to be evacuated and moved to an alternate location. This is a good example of Taliban control. Zari has been contested for a while. tolonews.com/afghanistan-17…
3) Links to Taliban claims on Tolak and Arghanj Khwa:
alemarahenglish.net/?p=46899
alemarahenglish.net/?p=46893
Read 5 tweets

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