What’s the most underrated material in the modern world?
How about CONCRETE?
Often dismissed as boring, ugly & inert.
Concrete is actually surprising, dynamic & incredibly complex.
With that in mind here are a few reasons why we need to start talking about concrete 🪨
🧵
First off, we use a lot of it. A hell of a lot of it.
Every minute of every day, construction firms around the world pour out the equivalent of more than 200,000 bathtubs of concrete.
Every minute.
Every year we pour enough concrete to cover the entire landmass of England.
The vast majority of concrete these days is being poured in China, to build bridges, skyscrapers, high speed rail etc.
Indeed China produced more cement in the past three years alone (2018-2020) than the US did in EVERY year since the first Portland cement plant opened in 1865.
Or another way of looking at it. Here is the total amount of cement produced in the US over the past decade vs the amount of cement produced in China in the same period. You get the idea.
At this stage you're prob wondering about why I'm saying both "cement" and "concrete". Actually they’re slightly different things. Cement is the magic ingredient inside concrete. Concrete is basically sand plus gravel plus cement. Add water and you get an extraordinary reaction.
Calling it extraordinary isn't overdoing it. The cement reacts with the water to create a kind of gel which quickly and then slowly begins to cure into stone. Look under a microscope and you see lots of tiny stony tendrils forming which bond to each other and the sand/stone.
Scientists still don't 100% understand what's going on inside cement when it's setting. In chemistry labs this remains hotly-debated territory. Also intriguingly, it keeps on curing long after it's apparently set. The Hoover dam is still curing nearly a century after being built!
But the upshot of the chemical reaction is to create a kind of stone you can pour into a mould. Hard these days to imagine how revolutionary this was back in the 19th century when the main alternative was bricks/masonry which was v labour intensive and considerably less strong.
Concrete is very, very strong, especially when you combine it with steel reinforcement bars (rebar) which also give it tensile strength (so you can build bridges with it). The 20th and 21st century world is literally built on concrete, mostly reinforced concrete.
Now, we are not the first civilisation to be v reliant on concrete. The Romans had their own form of concrete & there's evidence our ancestors used a form of cement as long as 10k yrs ago. The Colosseum is partly built out of concrete, behind the brickwork and in the foundations.
That brings us to the most amazing building in Rome: the Pantheon. An enormous, pristine, beautiful and quite delicate-looking dome, all built out of concrete TWO THOUSAND YEARS AGO. It's still the world's biggest unreinforced concrete dome even today.
But while modern concrete is stronger than Roman it tends to last less long. This is usually down to corrosion of the steel bars inside. A big problem these days esp in highway maintenance. Many bridges get this problem. Eg lots of these (not Hammersmith) thetimes.co.uk/article/half-o…
Anyway, after the fall of the Roman Empire, the recipe for concrete was forgotten. Only in the 15th century, when an old manuscript by Vitruvius resurfaced with hints about the recipe, was interest in this building craft re-ignited. It sparked a race to "re-invent" concrete anew.
When historians write abt the enlightenment, industrial revolution etc, they often talk about steel and science and electricity and so on. They tend to overlook concrete & cement. But in the 18th and 19th century many of the world's greatest minds were focused on this challenge.
There were countless contenders making artificial stone but the eventual winner of this race was someone called Joseph Aspdin, who patented Portland cement in 1824 (the "Portland" bit was essentially a branding exercise, since Portland stone from Dorset was v fashionable).
No-one is quite sure, by the way, whether Aspdin came up with the recipe himself or nicked it from someone else. If you're interested in this topic and, well, concrete more generally, Concrete Planet by Robert Courland is well worth a read amazon.co.uk/Concrete-Plane…
Anyway, Portland cement wasn't quite the same as the Roman variety, whose secret ingredient was a kind of volcanic ash called Pozzolana. In most ways it's actually stronger. Tho in terms of water resistance we are still learning much from the Roman variety eurekalert.org/news-releases/…
To simplify enormously, Portland cement is a powder formed when you roast limestone/chalk with clay, sand and, occasionally, other additives such as iron oxide. You end up with black, unpromising-looking nodules, which are called clinker. Crush them and you have a basic cement.
This all happens in a kiln. Back in the day these were "bottle kilns": like those old pottery kilns you see in Stoke-on-Trent and elsewhere. But these days they are rotary kilns, vast, hot, titled tubular ovens through which the ingredients tumble as the chemical reaction occurs.
I went to the cement plant in Rugby the other day. It was unexpectedly thrilling. The kiln is the enormous tube here (not the tall tower where the chimney is, which is kind of pre-heating the ingredients).
The kiln here is the biggest in the UK. This plant is actually the oldest still operating in the UK - possibly the world. This plant was making cement for the Victorian industrial revolution. Cement during WWI and WWII. Cement today for HS2 and more.
The kiln has to keep turning, 24hrs a day, partly because of all the demand for cement (LOTS post Covid) but more importantly because if it stopped the heat inside would melt the tube and it would sag & fail. This would be v bad, the plant manager said, with some understatement
Cement plants don't get much attention. Manufacturing stories fixate on car plants/steelworks but cement is a crucial part of the economy, because of how many sectors it underpins (construction, property, transport). & unlike most sectors we're nearly self-sufficient in cement.
But there's growing focus on kilns these days, because cement happens to be one of the trickiest obstacles in getting carbon emissions down to net zero by 2050. Cement is responsible for roughly 7% of global emissions. More than aviation & deforestation combined. It's a BIG deal.
Actually that 7% comprises two parts: the chemical reaction as calcium carbonate (chalk/limestone) is heated and the carbon bonds with oxygen, creating calcium oxide (quicklime, key component of cement) & co2. Then the emissions from the kiln's heat source, traditionally coal.
Its relatively straightforward to remove coal from the equation. The Rugby plant (run by Cemex these days) uses Climafuel - essentially processed waste - to heat its kilns. Here's the big hangar where they store it. The grabber picks up the fuel and sends it to the heating tower.
This plant - and the UK cement industry - is FAR greener these days. In this country cement CO2 emissions are down 53% since 1990 - partly by reducing energy emissions, partly by adding things to the final mix. But the CO2 from that chemical reaction is a far tougher nut to crack
You can't achieve the chemical reaction in the kiln w/o carbon emissions. So for the cement industry the only foreseeable way to get to zero emissions is via carbon capture & storage. And CCS is v expensive and while the tech works in theory we've yet to see it applied at scale.
Raising another q: can we make cement without emitting co2? Yes and no. One alternative is alkali-activated cements where you add an alkali solution to blast furnace slag or coal fly or waste incinerator ash or metakaolin. You get a really strong cement w/o direct co2 emissions.
Few weeks ago @BrantWalkley and his team at @sheffielduni mixed us up some samples. On the left is traditional Portland cement. Middle is alkali-activated, reducing emissions by c.80%. On the right is one that is zero carbon!*
* Whether it's really zero carbon depends on how you do the accounting. Because it was made with blast furnace slag, some carbon WAS produced by the steel mill from which it came, if not in the cement reaction. Account for this carbon and it's not zero emissions
This alkali-activated cement is also more resilient to rebar corrosion. Why? It has a higher pH than traditional Portland cement, which helps protect steel from rust. These alkali activated cement blocks have been sprayed with a solution which goes pink when there's a high pH.
Remaining question: how well these cements stand up to real world use/abuse over decades. We have 200yrs of Portland cement but much less with these ones. Tho there are one or two structures around world made with alkali-activated cement, esp, surprisingly, in the ex-Soviet Union
Faced with shortages of Portland cement in the Soviet era, some chemists/builders experimented with these unconventional cements. Here's an apartment in Mariupol, Ukraine. Tho few of its residents realise, this building is a site of deep interest to scientists these days.
There's also a jetty at Skinninggrove in N Yorks built with cement made w/ blast furnace slag, long before Soviet efforts. Only prob? It got renovated recently & I think (tho yet to be confirmed) the renovation used Portland cement, not the unique mix with which it was first made
But while these kinds of cements are much greener the problem is they're quite hard to scale up. And the defining feature of concrete is scale (back to those first few tweets). And ease of use. One of the most amazing things about concrete is that pretty much anyone can make it.
If we're going to continue relying on cement (hard to imagine 21st century civilisation without it) and hit net zero we need some BIG technological leaps - soon. Lots of 💰 going into batteries/hydrogen/solar etc. But this issue, unsexy as it might be, is also v v important.
If you're still, god forbid, interested in cement and concrete after all that, here's a short @SkyNews film I made with @maddylratcliffe about it
The challenge with all these ideas is not merely whether they work, or indeed whether they can theoretically be scaled up, but also persuading the construction trade to take a leap and adopt them. Which, it turns out, is v hard indeed (h/t @adepledge): constructionphysics.substack.com/p/why-its-hard…
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BIG jump in UK CPI inflation.
Up from annual rate of 2% in July to 3.2% in Aug.
Not just the highest level of inflation since 2012, it’s also the biggest month-on-month change in the level in the history of this inflation measure (going back to 1997)
Here’s one reason to believe the inflation rise may be temporary: the main contributing factor was a BIG jump in prices, this year vs last, in restaurants.
And what was happening last year? Eat Out to Help Out.
Once that washes out, some of the upward pressure should go away…
Here’s a reason to believe the rise in inflation may NOT be temporary. Lots of pricing pressure in the pipeline, inc THIS: energy prices are going up v v fast, which will feed into household bills in the coming months. And that’s before you consider costs of raw goods…
By my reckoning today's NI/health levy is the sixth biggest tax increase in at least three decades.
It's massive!
Here's how it compares to the other biggest tax rises.
Combine it with the Corp tax increase & 2021 may end up being the biggest tax-raising year in recent times
Here's another striking pattern which will be exacerbated by today's non-Budget: just look at how income tax and National Insurance rates have begun to converge in recent years.
If this continues much longer NI will actually be higher!
NB this is only the employee NI main rate
As @TheIFS have pointed out, the tax burden is now heading for the highest sustained level ever. Note it was ever so slightly higher in 1969/70 but that was a bit of a blip. Whereas the govt plans are for taxes to be high for a long time.
While this is the highest daily #COVID19 death figure since March, a BIG note of caution:
This is in large part a bank holiday effect (v low over weekend so registrations now just catching up).
Deaths certainly rising but v much more gradual than this single day’s figure implies.
It’s too early to know what happens next.
But the data on Covid deaths is STILL tentatively promising.
Dark blue line is cases; red line is deaths.
Look at the relationship between cases & deaths in the previous wave. Then look, post-vax, at how much it’s weakened.
Back in June when I first pointed out that those two lines were diverging (👇) there were a few who predicted that it couldn’t last.
But it has lasted.
Yes deaths are rising; there are many tragic stories.
But across the country the trend is v v different to last time.
Here’s a story about a #COVID19 datapoint that looks very scary, but turns out to be quite reassuring.
The statistic is buried in a recent @PHE_uk release.
I’ve ringed it here.
It’s the no of double-jabbed people who’ve died with Delta variant assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
More vaccinated people are dying w/ the Delta variant of #COVID19 than unvaccinated.
Indeed, look at those aged over-50 and the proportion is even higher:
279 vaccinated people dying vs 131 unvaccinated.
More than double.
Scary, right? Well not necessarily…
Let’s run through it
There are two things to bear in mind here.
First, the vaccines are not 100% effective. They reduce your likelihood of dying of the disease. But even after vaccination some age groups are still relatively vulnerable. @d_spiegel explained this well here theguardian.com/theobserver/co…
Remember how, back in April/May, the decision was made that under-30s and then under-40s should be given the option to have a vaccine other than AstraZeneca, because of the risks of side-effects? Well, the calculus has now changed and the benefits now probably outweigh the risks
It comes back to this chart. You might remember this from when Jonathan Van-Tam announced the decision. The point was that the bars on the right (the risks of blood clot events) were bigger than the bars on the left (the risks of getting #COVID19 and going into ICU) for under-40s
That chart was predicated on the notion that the risk of getting #COVID19 was pretty low. It was, back in April, because only one in 600 people had the virus. But since then things have changed. Now it’s one in 75 who have #COVID19. Meaning those bars on the right are bigger.
Quick Covid data update. Cases heading higher, so too admissions. But the link between them is weaker than in previous waves.
In short, the coming months will be nerve-wracking.
Cases will get v v high. This will feel like a wave in that respect. But in other respects v different
Same data but on a log axis - now you can see that hospital admissions are now growing at almost the same rate as cases.
Roughly doubling every 11 days.
V unsettling. Especially given cases have further to rise. So what next?
Here’s a simple extrapolation of cases and hospitalisations (second chart is same data with log axes).
Extrapolate current growth rates and you’re talking abt 100k cases by late July.
Hospital admissions up to 1000 by 19 July, possibly touching 2000 by end July.