Remember how, back in April/May, the decision was made that under-30s and then under-40s should be given the option to have a vaccine other than AstraZeneca, because of the risks of side-effects? Well, the calculus has now changed and the benefits now probably outweigh the risks
It comes back to this chart. You might remember this from when Jonathan Van-Tam announced the decision. The point was that the bars on the right (the risks of blood clot events) were bigger than the bars on the left (the risks of getting #COVID19 and going into ICU) for under-40s 
That chart was predicated on the notion that the risk of getting #COVID19 was pretty low. It was, back in April, because only one in 600 people had the virus. But since then things have changed. Now it’s one in 75 who have #COVID19. Meaning those bars on the right are bigger.
The risk for unvaccinated people of getting #COVID19 & going into ICU now outweighs the risk of a blood clot event for all age groups, at least according to the calculus used in April/May. Here’s what the bar chart looks like with levels of #COVID closer to where they are now.
No vaccine is 100% safe. There are always risks - it’s delusional to pretend otherwise. But on the basis of the known and quantifiable risks, the benefits of the vaccine look like they outweigh the risks, even for those in their 20s and 30s, even for the AZ vaccine.
Imp to be clear abt what these charts do & don’t tell u. They’re comparing COVID ICU admission with one vaccine side effect - the clotting. Then again clots do seem to be the main major adverse reported effect thus far from AZ. ICU admission is far from the only COVID consequence
Moreover, the data here 👆on vaccine side-effects is based on numbers given by the MHRA to the Winton Centre which, AFAICT, haven’t been published in full elsewhere. There’s no confidence intervals. We could def do with more data & more transparency on these figures.
Still: the important point is that the calculus is shifting. It’s right and rational to consider benefits vs harms when deciding on the vaccine. But those risk/harm balances are constantly shifting. Right now with cases rising, they look different to how they did a few months ago
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