Despite the headline, there’s a lot in here that points instead to an intelligence failure.
1. The timing of some of these warnings came very late in the game (including when it was increasingly obvious that Afghan mil could collapse)
<thread>
nytimes.com/2021/08/17/us/…
1. The timing of some of these warnings came very late in the game (including when it was increasingly obvious that Afghan mil could collapse)
<thread>
nytimes.com/2021/08/17/us/…
2. “Key American decisions were made long before July, when the consensus among intelligence agencies was that the Afghan government could hang on for as long as two years, which would have left ample time for an orderly exit.”
That’s called an intelligence failure.
That’s called an intelligence failure.
3. “As late as a week before Kabul’s fall, the overall intelligence analysis was that a Taliban takeover was not yet inevitable.”
That’s more evidence of an intelligence failure.
That’s more evidence of an intelligence failure.
4. “One report in July—as dozens of Afghan districts were falling and Taliban fighters were laying siege to several major cities—laid out the growing risks to Kabul.”
That’s little too late.
Do these “July” reports come before or after Biden’s over-confident remarks on July 8?
That’s little too late.
Do these “July” reports come before or after Biden’s over-confident remarks on July 8?
5. Even the July reports seem murky.
“One senior administration official … said that even by July, as the situation grew more volatile, intelligence agencies never offered a clear prediction of an imminent Taliban takeover.”
“One senior administration official … said that even by July, as the situation grew more volatile, intelligence agencies never offered a clear prediction of an imminent Taliban takeover.”
6. How clear were CIA reports?
“[T]he agency resisted giving an exact time frame and the assessments could often be interpreted in a variety of ways, including concluding that Afghanistan could fall quickly or possibly over time.”
From this paragraph for context.👇
“[T]he agency resisted giving an exact time frame and the assessments could often be interpreted in a variety of ways, including concluding that Afghanistan could fall quickly or possibly over time.”
From this paragraph for context.👇
7. CIA is also just one of many intelligence agencies.
“Sharp disagreements have also persisted in the intelligence community… the Defense Intelligence Agency and other intelligence shops within the Pentagon delivered more optimistic assessments about the Afghans’ preparedness”
“Sharp disagreements have also persisted in the intelligence community… the Defense Intelligence Agency and other intelligence shops within the Pentagon delivered more optimistic assessments about the Afghans’ preparedness”
8. This reporting by NYT — including about possible lack of clarity in CIA assessments — adds to reporting by NBC.
NYT: @MarkMazzettiNYT @julianbarnes @adamgoldmanNYT
NBC: @KenDilanianNBC @mikememoli @ckubeNBC @JoshNBCNews
nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
NYT: @MarkMazzettiNYT @julianbarnes @adamgoldmanNYT
NBC: @KenDilanianNBC @mikememoli @ckubeNBC @JoshNBCNews
nbcnews.com/politics/natio…
9. And NBC report includes this nugget:
Sounds like Pentagon briefed Congress about intelligence assessments at the time, and those assessments were highly flawed.
“[T]hey were telling us two weeks ago that Kabul wouldn't fall for months, if at all this year.”👇
Sounds like Pentagon briefed Congress about intelligence assessments at the time, and those assessments were highly flawed.
“[T]hey were telling us two weeks ago that Kabul wouldn't fall for months, if at all this year.”👇
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