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Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
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18 Aug, 6 tweets, 1 min read
Wonder if we’re seeing the two sides of the Afghan governing coalition? Someone sanctioned and someone basically presentable.
I think this is why we’re seeing a long time for the TB to announce their government: how to balance their internal factions with external support?
Reports of a large number of people (Talibs) coming into Kabul from provinces to effectively lobby the new government for positions.
Including a large number of Helmandis which indicates that there will likely be a minister (Saddar Ibrahim?) representing the helmandi faction (the large number are his guard/militia)
And then there’s this, the Panjshir question. Is Abdullah2 trying to negotiate autonomy or something for Panjshir?

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
What about the Hazara areas?

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Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
11 Sep
What I don’t know yet is what they got in return…. One assumes independent control of their little fiefdom and the drugs. Rather than Helmandis I would say networks as well.
Muttaqi is Helmandi from zargoun kalay in nad Ali. Gul agha is Helmandi, previously of mansour network, but now @bsarace is reporting he might be considered a Yacouby (I can’t say either way yet).
So maybe the question is what is happening with all the mansourees? Was the trade about drugs and independence?
Read 4 tweets
Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
10 Sep
The Talib government is like watching history repeat itself; the deafening silence where recognition should be; Pakistan scraping the barrel trying to integrate the mullahs internationally.
I mean I know the Talibs had no choice but to have a line up like that if they wanted to not fracture their movement.
But a Talib-only government isn’t going to work for Afghanistan, nor for the region, nor for other international players.
Read 15 tweets
Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
3 Sep
Reports that the Taliban are going to announce their government after noon prayers (Friday) in Kandahar. This is 0830 UK time.
Think it’s safe to say Tajikistan won’t be recognising it
And I guess China will
Read 76 tweets
Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
25 Aug
Interesting that RT is reporting this. So Russia has fallen out of love with the Taliban. Do we link this to the reports of helicopters flying into Panjshir from Tajikistan the other day?
Is this part of the Russia - China strategic rivalry in Central Asia?
(Obv Russia was giving support to some TB factions because it wanted to give the US payback after the muj beat the commies, but I guess they expected a bit more support after. Ha. You can rent 'em, but you can't buy 'em.)
Read 5 tweets
Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
19 Aug
Hearing several reports that a large number (over a thousand) mostly Helmandi and some Kandahari Talibs are moving up to Kabul to assume the internal security of Kabul.
This tells us a few things.
Firstly, that the central Talibs trust most the southerners.
Read 154 tweets
Dr Mike Martin ⛵️ Profile picture
19 Aug
Interagi if reports from @NagiebK up in Mazar: all calm, and checkpoints manned by local guys from rural Balkh (Turkmen, Tajik, Uzbek etc.). A very few Kandaharis.
Clear that the Taliban have been excellent as using those local cleavages to recruit all over country.
Wonder what happens when/if the Southern Pushtun reassert control. Will they? What degree of autonomy will locals get in the new world?
Read 5 tweets

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