Thread by @ThreshedThought

Reports that the Taliban are going to announce their government after noon prayers (Friday) in Kandahar. This is 0830 UK time.

Think it’s safe to say Tajikistan won’t be recognising it

https://twitter.com/AlexKokcharov/status/1433407145333116930

And I guess China will

https://twitter.com/GandharaRFE/status/1433566243848536088

Predictions are dangerous things but I’d guess Russia won’t. Hard to see Tajikistan taking that line without Russia driving it; and they’ve pulled some civilians out of their embassy

The key question is what the west do. If they have any sense they won’t recognise the Taliban government.

Ok. Line up starting to come out now.

Barardar to lead it. No surprises there.

Yacoub and Stanakzai to have senior positions. No surprises there either.

Ones to watch are:

Any Haqqanis (watch list)
Zakir (rumoured for Defence)
Gul Agha (drugs/Iran)
Ibrahim Sadar (drugs/Iran)

UK and Germany pledge to continue humanitarian assistance.

Ok seems like it’s been knocked back 24 hours (or to who knows when) … but …

Hibatullah, the leader of the Taliban, is gonna remain in Kandahar apparently.

Capital is gonna remain in Kabul (there were rumours about Kandahar but I can’t imagine anything more stupid for the Talibs to do).

Interesting that they’ve delayed it (it seems that they were planning to announce it today - several sources etc). Did someone kick up a fuss?

Also interesting that after thrusting themselves forward as a major friend/sponsor of talib gov (scroll up thread), China is now saying they want to avoid a civil war in Afg

https://twitter.com/globaltimesnews/status/1433720287422337024

Protests in Kabul against the exclusion of women from the cabinet (this has been confirmed by @suhailshaheen1 although line up delayed from today)

https://twitter.com/afintlbrk/status/1433714572184236037

Celebratory firing in the air in Kabul. Talibs claim they’ve taken Panjshir. Not confirmed. reuters.com/world/asia-pac…

Another big question for the new talib government is whether they conclude any Jamiat figures at all. Not to seems to be storing up trouble for the future. It’s too big a block to exclude completely from power and not risk rebellion.

Obviously Panjshiri source so unconfirmed… but …

https://twitter.com/na2nrf/status/1433923522091438085

Was the firing in Kabul not celebratory, but inter factional?

17 killed and 41 wounded. That’s some celebratory fire.

https://twitter.com/tolonews/status/1434037704275202048

Apparently the head of the ISI arrived in Kabul this morning. Probably coming to sort the squabbling children out

Can anyone confirm?

https://twitter.com/afintlbrk/status/1434049154486046723

Seems legit

https://twitter.com/anasmallick/status/1434043613114257409

Just checking in on the kids

https://twitter.com/lindseyhilsum/status/1434054625896902658

The Talib government is likely to be as hardline as they come. Too difficult to tack to the centre when lots of their fighters were born after 9/11, and they think they’ve just been given an amazing victory by Allah.

I think at this stage they are transitioning from a poly centric insurgency to a (more) centralised government and the biggest risk is fracturing their (very loose) franchise movement.

More Taliban factional stuff.

https://twitter.com/DaudKhattak1/status/1434067275246678016

Gen Miley (US) also citing risk of civil war.

Says it is ‘likely’
foxnews.com/politics/mille…

Not that he’s got much right recently

Interesting. But I guess they’ve presented their credentials to the previous Republic’s government?

https://twitter.com/franzjmarty/status/1434041068216012803

At odds with their earlier comments on women’s rights

https://twitter.com/Shamshadnetwork/status/1434376815875870720

TTP (Pak TB) suicide attack in Quetta. 4 dead/~20 injured. Didn’t take long for blowback did it?

Afghan National Airline has restarted domestic flights

Fascinating.

Iran has said that it won’t recognise the Taliban government, and that elections should be held as soon as possible (!).

Obviously Pakistan has pushed back against this.

I wonder what this says about the position in the new government of those elements in the Taliban (eg Helmandis mainly, but also Farahi and Nimruzi etc) that have close links to Iran?

(Pak and Iran have both tried to ‘control’ those elements).

Iran’s major ask in that part of Afghanistan is water from eg the River Helmand. It is a critical, vital National Interest.

Other key interests include protection of the Shia Hazara, and a common position on the drugs trade.

The timing of this announcement is also fascinating: after the delay of the gov formation, rumours of factional disputes about power within the Taliban, and the ISI Chief in Kabul, one assumes to bash some heads together and force them to work together.

Pakistan should have learnt last time that the Talibs will take the help and support, but screw you if they wanna do something different.

This Iranian announcement is a major point. Watch this space.

There is also a Chinese angle to this. They have previously mooted a central BRI route that goes through Afg and Iran (eventually) to the Mediterranean.

Wonder what their thoughts are on the Iranian announcement.

No doubt there will be a @CGTNOfficial op-ed fairly soon

Shot across the bows to the various Talib squabblers. In answer to your question,
one wonders if Russia is changing horses…

https://twitter.com/ashoswai/status/1434468985739821056

So Kabul fell three weeks ago, and no government announced. This is primarily because different bits of the Taliban (a loose franchise with lots of different power centres if ever there was one) are arguing over who gets what.

This is not a discussion about whether non Talibs will get positions. Only the doha types are pushing for that.

But the Doha types don’t have facts on the ground. And the facts in the ground are that different factions have occupied different ministries and are camping out in them. This is now an intra-Talib squabble. And likely one that doesn’t include any non-Pashtun Talibs.

This is tragic for Afghanistan. It is far too centralised a government. And it will lead to centres of resistance amongst other ethnic groups (and disenfranchised Pashtun).

In a sense the Talibs have no choice - they have to divvy up the spoils amongst their leadership. And leaders with the most fighters (e.g. Zakir) have the best spoils).

But overcentralisation is the kiss of death for governments in Afghanistan. It did it for Ghani’s gov, and it’ll do it for the Talibs.

Here’s an earlier thread charting some of the factional moves to get into Kabul

https://twitter.com/ThreshedThought/status/1428478095787393026

For a detailed look at the conflict in Helmand, which is a good way to understand the wider dynamics, there is a

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off the pbk edition of 'An Intimate War'.

Go here: hurstpublishers.com/book/an-intima…

And use the code ‘INTIMATEWAR50’ at checkout.

Italy is out reuters.com/world/europe/i…

Seems like we are coming to an endgame in Panjshir.

That’ll be the last major outgroup for the Taliban gone: I expect their internal rivalries to become more intense and pronounced from then forward.

I’m pretty sure the Talibs won’t go for this

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1434696938075537411

Talibs are at Panjshir Provincial Governor’s compound. It’s over.

Told ya

Only great power name checked on @Zabehulah_M33 press conference to announce ‘the end of the war’.

https://twitter.com/TOLOnews/status/1434778850513330176

Surely the Chinese are not so stupid?

The Iranians are mega pissed at the Talibs (see above in thread for some analysis)

https://twitter.com/afp/status/1434781044520079365

It’s game time (almost)

https://twitter.com/akhundzada111/status/1435047796499955712

US is saying that it is a ‘long way off’ that they recognise the Taliban government

Oh my days. Talibs may be announcing their government on 11th September.

I guess they’ve given up on recognition from the US then.

Seems a bit gratuitous, all the same.

Anti-Pakistan protests in Kabul today.

https://twitter.com/tolonews/status/1435134716273901570

Talib crowd control at said protests. What a joke

https://twitter.com/bhuvanbagga/status/1435152207914037248

Turkey ain’t happy either. No speakers of Turkic languages in the (as yet not publish slot announced) Talib government?

https://twitter.com/yusuferim34/status/1435143740239327234

Wow. That is what is known as a big fuck you government line up. Just like the 1990s. Seems Barardar lost out in his arguments for something more inclusive (and got demoted).

Finance goes to Gul Agha as we’ve been saying.

Interior Minister is on a UN watchlist (Siraj Haqqani). Surely that makes it difficult for China to recognise them (as security council pérennant members).

On the plus side the US should know where he is to collect him (he is on the FBI’s most wanted list with a $5m price tag).

Muttaqi as Foreign Minster. He’s from Nad Ali in Helmand. I spent a lot of time there a decade ago.

Qari Fasih the only non-Pashtun in the big Defence jobs. Tajik. Did the assault on Panjshir and was the main guy in the north.

Mir Jawal - Dep for Intelligence - basically led a suicide bomber network

Interestingly no Zakir or Sardar Ibrahim from Helmand. Zakir has been whispered about for defence for a while, but didn’t get it. Reportedly he was camping out in the MOD building in Kabul so he’s gotta leave now.

Khalil Haqqani for refugees. That’s interesting. Wonder if that’s the ISI pushing that - the Haqqanis huge networks into Pakistan where the vast majority of Afghan refugees are.

Hassan Akhund to lead the gov. Supposedly a compromise candidate between hard liners and ‘progressives’. Not much of a compromise really: he’s on a watch list!

Basically with this ‘acting’ cabinet, the Talibs have prioritised movement stability (less a couple of people who I’m surprised about) over external relationships.

And it has to be said: privileging movement stability over future stability of Afghanistan (due to many ethnicities being cut out, and this being mostly dominated by southern Pashtuns).

Hubris hubris hubris. Thats what they have due to the manner of their victory.

Uzbekistan seems on it

https://twitter.com/farangisn/status/1435540756404506628