Thread by @ThreshedThought

The Talib government is like watching history repeat itself; the deafening silence where recognition should be; Pakistan scraping the barrel trying to integrate the mullahs internationally.

I mean I know the Talibs had no choice but to have a line up like that if they wanted to not fracture their movement.

But a Talib-only government isn’t going to work for Afghanistan, nor for the region, nor for other international players.

Governments in Afghanistan (indeed in any country) need a broad enough political franchise. A government dominated by Pashtun from Loy Kandahar and Loya Paktia

Look at this: in a country of starving people you can’t get aid in because there are so many members of the government on sanctions lists.

Even China only put in $30m or so - a pitiful amount for a) such a rich country and b) supposedly Afghanistan’s new bff

China must be pretty baffled. What Barardar said when he went there clearly did not match what they see now.

And Barardar - everyone’s main interlocutor - has been demoted.

And believe it or not, the Talibs do think that this is a compromise gov - there could have been even more hard liners in it - like Zakir & Sardar Ibrahim.

For the Talibs, this is a consensus government because it is not entirely filled with military commanders, only partly.

And so tomorrow apparently they are going to have the launching of government ceremony. On Sept 11th. I really don’t think that will go down well.

How do they plan to stave off economic collapse and hordes of starving people flooding the region?

What’s the plan?

And as if by magic …

https://twitter.com/bsarwary/status/1436412320532553731

Hey @bsarwary any idea where Zakir is as well?

Killing it with the OSINT as always

https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1436815433139687427

More thoughts on the Helmandis

https://twitter.com/threshedthought/status/1436829751805558786